It seems to me that what you have described with aircraft pilots inability to intervene successfully is comparable to a road vehicle with Level 2 or Level 3 autonomy. What has been determined on the road is that humans drivers who rely on such autonomy and are required to stay alert cannot be relied upon to react in time to take over the vehicle to prevent an accident. As we know, this is precisely why Waymo has shunned any Level 2 or Level 3 solutions and moved fully to at least Level 4 autonomy.
Autonomous Vehicles
- Thread starter adam cool dude
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It seems to me that what you have described with aircraft pilots inability to intervene successfully is comparable to a road vehicle with Level 2 or Level 3 autonomy. What has been determined on the road is that humans drivers who rely on such autonomy and are required to stay alert cannot be relied upon to react in time to take over the vehicle to prevent an accident. As we know, this is precisely why Waymo has shunned any Level 2 or Level 3 solutions and moved fully to at least Level 4 autonomy.
Partnerships growing between Chinese companies and Western European suppliers for developing autonomous solutions in China self driving vehicle market
Continental AG and Chinese ride-hailing company Didi Chuxing have formed a partnership to research and develop intelligent and connected vehicles, the companies said Tuesday.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/continental-didi-chuxing-partner-on-vehicle-tech-2018-07-10
Continental AG and Chinese ride-hailing company Didi Chuxing have formed a partnership to research and develop intelligent and connected vehicles, the companies said Tuesday.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/continental-didi-chuxing-partner-on-vehicle-tech-2018-07-10
And a second deal announced between BMW and Baidu to coincide with the Chinese Premier's official visit to Germany, covers their alliance in self driving vehicles.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bmw-baidu-ally-on-self-driving-tech-in-china-2018-07-10
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bmw-baidu-ally-on-self-driving-tech-in-china-2018-07-10
Soldato
TBH I think China will be the proving ground for self driving cars. I don't think the West is ready for the risk while the tech is developed.
China is... well China.
China is... well China.
Because if your relying on automation, your reaction times are massively reduced and it might be to late to take back control to avoid a crash you would otherwise have avoided.
As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, Google announced a partnership in which Google is taking a $ 500 million investment in newly-issued shares of JD.com (close relationship with TenCent). In addition to the implied work that JD and Google could work on in AI/machine learning to assist JD global commerce ambitions, I suggested they could well work together on autonomous delivery with Waymo. Waymo may have difficulty penetrating the Chinese domestic market due to Google's 2010 withdrawal from the domestic Chinese search market due to Chinese Communist government interference (favouring Baidu) and censorship (China attempted to hack GMail to spy on Chinese dissidents), but their AV potential collaboration could be outside of China. While not as positive as collaboration inside China, there is plenty of scope in their venture.
Exactly. Level 2 and Level 3 automation solutions may well be riskier than many believe.
And level 4/5 the most risky.
Soldato
It's a trade off. Humans in general are terrible driving machines, look how many avoidable deaths there are every day. It just seems more... acceptable for humans to be fallible even if an AI was half again less terrible and half as many people actually died
Former Apple Employee charged with theft of trade secrets related to Apple's autonomous car programme/MacRumors
Of note, Apple has 5,000 people working on AVs according to the criminal complaint! That is nearly 5% of all Apple employees.
https://www.macrumors.com/2018/07/10/apple-employee-steals-trade-secrets/
Of note, Apple has 5,000 people working on AVs according to the criminal complaint! That is nearly 5% of all Apple employees.
https://www.macrumors.com/2018/07/10/apple-employee-steals-trade-secrets/
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Seems surprising that on one hand trump is putting trade constraints on China (except zte), but is also allowing (do/speak/say no evil) google to engage with Chinese jd.com for AV,
and apple/fbi are now prosecuting this guy for taking their AV secrets to china.
The yanks can't live with or without the Chinese ? - they should make up their minds.
[ Given that all(?) the iphones are made in China - will/do these attract any trade sanctions, hope the USA population with their Apple rich homes get the irony ]
and apple/fbi are now prosecuting this guy for taking their AV secrets to china.
The yanks can't live with or without the Chinese ? - they should make up their minds.
[ Given that all(?) the iphones are made in China - will/do these attract any trade sanctions, hope the USA population with their Apple rich homes get the irony ]
From what I have read, Pres Trump is trying to obtain free and fair trade between the US and China (reducing the US trade deficit on goods and services) and stopping China from forcing US companies to transfer their IP/trade secrets as a pre-condition to do business in China. The newest tariff list from the US seems carefully crafted to avoid US consumer hardship and I believe excludes phones (eg, Chinese built iPhones) but seeks to make it more expensive for key Chinese export companies to do business with the US, their main trading partner. But as this thread is about AVs, I think politics is probably best left to another part of OCUK!
Regarding my theory that a Google/Waymo/JD.com partnership might extend to AVs which seems logical, I do not expect the partnership will operate in China as Google is largely barred by the Chinese Communist Party from operating in the domestic Chinese market due to Google's unwillingness to accept Chinese censorship on free speech. If the partnership extends to JD e-commerce deliveries outside of China (JD seeks to expand its e-commerce capabilities globally), using Google AV/machine learning/AI capabilities seems a smart idea. I do not expect Google will be forced to transfer its IP/trade secrets to JD as part of this deal and the fact that JD sees Google as a provider of such services seems an appropriate arms length arrangement and a good basis for a partnership. Each side brings their own skill sets.
Trump was trying to get free trade with everyone in the G7. I'm sure he knows what he's doing
Probably you are right but shall we stick to AV related threads? Just to be "politically correct".
"Waymo & Uber may join forces"/CleanTecnica
This interesting note speculates on the advantages of a partnership for each side, something we have talked about previously in this thread. Some advantages would include developing software standards and systems, helping to achieve platooning of vehicles. Waymo has ordered many thousands of self driving vehicles and has a US partnership with Lyft, which is not exclusive. Could Uber and Waymo be actively talking about a partnership?
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/10/waymo-uber-may-join-forces/
This interesting note speculates on the advantages of a partnership for each side, something we have talked about previously in this thread. Some advantages would include developing software standards and systems, helping to achieve platooning of vehicles. Waymo has ordered many thousands of self driving vehicles and has a US partnership with Lyft, which is not exclusive. Could Uber and Waymo be actively talking about a partnership?
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/10/waymo-uber-may-join-forces/
According to IBD, an analyst was recently quoted in discussing how Waymo might proceed over the coming years, suggesting two scenarios and projecting the revenue and earnings potential of each:
"In one scenario, Waymo would form a transportation network with a fleet of robotaxis. In the other, it would license its self-driving-vehicle operating system and technology to carmakers.
If Waymo forms a transportation network, it could have a fleet of 1.5 million autonomous vehicles by 2030. This business could generate $1.9 billion in annual revenue with an operating loss of $1 billion by 2022. It could generate $65 billion in annual revenue with an operating profit of $20 billion by 2030. They see break-even on an operating-income basis in 2025.
If Waymo licenses its technology, it could generate $736 million in annual revenue by 2022. Operating profit could be $250 million. It could generate $53 billion in annual revenue with an operating profit of $35 billion by 2030.
"In this scenario, we forecast that Waymo will grow penetration from 25% to 34% of the new autonomous-vehicle market over about 10 years," they said in a report.
"In one scenario, Waymo would form a transportation network with a fleet of robotaxis. In the other, it would license its self-driving-vehicle operating system and technology to carmakers.
If Waymo forms a transportation network, it could have a fleet of 1.5 million autonomous vehicles by 2030. This business could generate $1.9 billion in annual revenue with an operating loss of $1 billion by 2022. It could generate $65 billion in annual revenue with an operating profit of $20 billion by 2030. They see break-even on an operating-income basis in 2025.
If Waymo licenses its technology, it could generate $736 million in annual revenue by 2022. Operating profit could be $250 million. It could generate $53 billion in annual revenue with an operating profit of $35 billion by 2030.
"In this scenario, we forecast that Waymo will grow penetration from 25% to 34% of the new autonomous-vehicle market over about 10 years," they said in a report.
Did an Uber/Waymo partnership just get more likely? Uber just cut 100 "operator" positions in self driving cars in Pittsburgh and San Francisco.
These "operators" will be permitted to apply for 55 advanced operator or mission specialist postions.
Hmm...read the TechCrunch link and you decide whether Uber will be going it alone in self driving cars or teaming with someone like Waymo.
https://techcrunch.com/2018/07/11/uber-lays-off-self-driving-car-operators-in-sf-and-pittsburgh/
These "operators" will be permitted to apply for 55 advanced operator or mission specialist postions.
Hmm...read the TechCrunch link and you decide whether Uber will be going it alone in self driving cars or teaming with someone like Waymo.
https://techcrunch.com/2018/07/11/uber-lays-off-self-driving-car-operators-in-sf-and-pittsburgh/
A report commissioned by Intel (who bought Mobileye for $ 15 billion) paints a very optimistic picture of the role autonomous vehicles will be playing in our lives in the next 30 years: a $ 7 trillion (£ 5 trillion) opportunity.
Quotes from sections of the report:
1. "In an unprecedented transformation of global industry, autonomous vehicles are about to displace drivers and generate $7 trillion per year by 2050 according to a study commissioned by Intel.
-- Fleets (trucks, buses, taxis, deliveries) likely first movers in autonomy uptake.
-- Advanced vehicle vision and detection systems essential for industry advancement."
2. "The study predicts autonomous vehicles will create a massive economic opportunity that will scale from $800 billion in 2035 to $7 trillion by 2050, taking into consideration the value of all products and services derived from fully autonomous vehicles, including tangential savings such as time. The study also postulates that because of greatly enhanced safety, autonomous vehicles will save more than 580,000 lives between 2035 and 2045. The future increasingly looks like it will be chauffeured by intelligent, pilotless vehicles. Companies that don't engage now and prepare for autonomous transportation risk failure or possibly even extinction. However, though the potential and opportunity are exciting for this burgeoning industry, technological hurdles must still be overcome. If history is any indicator, the complexities of autonomous transportation will be solved like all other technical challenges in emerging industries that have come before, and outsized rewards will be delivered to those who provide solutions."
3. "It took years for automotive innovations that were first introduced in the luxury car segment to finally trickle down to most of the cars on the road. Some assume that autonomous driving will follow a similar path, but all indications are that self-driving vehicles will adopt a different dynamic. The first fully autonomous vehicles are most likely to appear within commercial fleets of trucks, taxis, buses and delivery-dependent services where technology costs could be offset by fleet efficiencies. Pizza companies are already testing the use of autonomous vehicles to deliver their products and reduce costs. The impact might be most significant in trucking - nearly every item sold in the United States touches a truck at some point between manufacture and purchase. The benefits of autonomous fleets become obvious when the costs for a truck driver represent about a one-third of the total transport costs. Fully autonomous fleets could dramatically increase operating margins, providing compelling impetus for rapid adoption. However, reaching that point is dependent on robotic vehicles being able to "see" clearly and accurately detect and avoid obstacles."
Quotes from sections of the report:
1. "In an unprecedented transformation of global industry, autonomous vehicles are about to displace drivers and generate $7 trillion per year by 2050 according to a study commissioned by Intel.
-- Fleets (trucks, buses, taxis, deliveries) likely first movers in autonomy uptake.
-- Advanced vehicle vision and detection systems essential for industry advancement."
2. "The study predicts autonomous vehicles will create a massive economic opportunity that will scale from $800 billion in 2035 to $7 trillion by 2050, taking into consideration the value of all products and services derived from fully autonomous vehicles, including tangential savings such as time. The study also postulates that because of greatly enhanced safety, autonomous vehicles will save more than 580,000 lives between 2035 and 2045. The future increasingly looks like it will be chauffeured by intelligent, pilotless vehicles. Companies that don't engage now and prepare for autonomous transportation risk failure or possibly even extinction. However, though the potential and opportunity are exciting for this burgeoning industry, technological hurdles must still be overcome. If history is any indicator, the complexities of autonomous transportation will be solved like all other technical challenges in emerging industries that have come before, and outsized rewards will be delivered to those who provide solutions."
3. "It took years for automotive innovations that were first introduced in the luxury car segment to finally trickle down to most of the cars on the road. Some assume that autonomous driving will follow a similar path, but all indications are that self-driving vehicles will adopt a different dynamic. The first fully autonomous vehicles are most likely to appear within commercial fleets of trucks, taxis, buses and delivery-dependent services where technology costs could be offset by fleet efficiencies. Pizza companies are already testing the use of autonomous vehicles to deliver their products and reduce costs. The impact might be most significant in trucking - nearly every item sold in the United States touches a truck at some point between manufacture and purchase. The benefits of autonomous fleets become obvious when the costs for a truck driver represent about a one-third of the total transport costs. Fully autonomous fleets could dramatically increase operating margins, providing compelling impetus for rapid adoption. However, reaching that point is dependent on robotic vehicles being able to "see" clearly and accurately detect and avoid obstacles."
Jaguar delivers its first all electric i-Pace vehicles in the US, Waymo gets them first/Elektek
The first three i-Pace vehicles are now being tested by Waymo in San Francisco, but not in autonomous mode. Instead Waymo is developing design requirements for their hardware and software.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/12/jaguar-delivers-all-electric-i-pace-waymo/
The first three i-Pace vehicles are now being tested by Waymo in San Francisco, but not in autonomous mode. Instead Waymo is developing design requirements for their hardware and software.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/12/jaguar-delivers-all-electric-i-pace-waymo/
LIDAR sensors competition heating up/Cost should drop quickly
"
As the race to create robot cars intensifies, a secondary race is underway: a high-stakes competition to develop the sensors that serve as the cars’ “eyes.”
Lidar, a light-sensing form of radar, provides vision for the vast majority of autonomous vehicles being developed, but now there are dozens of companies with different twists on it.
Baraja, based in Australia and San Francisco, is the latest entrant. After 2½ years in stealth mode, the startup is unveiling its Spectrum-Scan Lidar, which it says uses prism-like elements to achieve maximum flexibility, reliability and clarity."
http://www.ttnews.com/articles/competition-heats-lidar-sensors-autonomous-sector
"
As the race to create robot cars intensifies, a secondary race is underway: a high-stakes competition to develop the sensors that serve as the cars’ “eyes.”
Lidar, a light-sensing form of radar, provides vision for the vast majority of autonomous vehicles being developed, but now there are dozens of companies with different twists on it.
Baraja, based in Australia and San Francisco, is the latest entrant. After 2½ years in stealth mode, the startup is unveiling its Spectrum-Scan Lidar, which it says uses prism-like elements to achieve maximum flexibility, reliability and clarity."
http://www.ttnews.com/articles/competition-heats-lidar-sensors-autonomous-sector