Beginning of the end for Tesla & Musk ?

Story doing the rounds that the Model 3 was the best selling car in the US during October. So it looks like the sales surge may not be done yet.

If Tesla's sales remain as strong (relative to the market) as they were during Q3, they're going to be nipping at the heels of BMW, Mercedes, and VW (brand) for US sales volume in FY18/19. Impressive stuff.

2019 and 2020 should be rather interesting years. Can Tesla carry the Model 3 momentum forward? Will it be as successful in other markets? Which manufacturers are prepared for the possibility of EVs taking off, and which ones aren't? It's fascinating viewing. Like watching the (potential) fall of Kodak or Nokia in slow motion (or maybe an "Icarus" moment for Tesla, if the whole EV experiment goes wrong).
 
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satchef1 said:
Story doing the rounds that the Model 3 was the best selling car in the US during October. So it looks like the sales surge may not be done yet.

If Tesla's sales remain as strong (relative to the market) as they were during Q3, they're going to be nipping at the heels of BMW, Mercedes, and VW (brand) for US sales volume in FY18/19. Impressive stuff.

2019 and 2020 should be rather interesting years. Can Tesla carry the Model 3 momentum forward? Will it be as successful in other markets? Which manufacturers are prepared for the possibility of EVs taking off, and which ones aren't?
Click to expand...

The momentum will almost certainly be kept up during 2019 and 2020 with Asia and Europe coming online. There is still lot of pent up demand there, the only real competition is coming from the Korean's (for long range) but they are a real step down in spec and volume, after that is a bit more unknown. Norway is doing 45% of all new cars are EV's currently (60% if you include PHEV's), imagine if that was everywhere. Have a look at the trade in stats for Model 3 in the states, its amazing how much some people are 'trading up' to get one.

In terms of the other players, those that are prepared:
Kia/Hyundai - have good products available but the volumes are low and effectively sold out.
Nissan - Selling loads of Leaf's and ENV-200 (van), they need to sort the battery situation out before I could consider them long term.
Renault - Again selling loads of Zoe's, Kangoo's and have a crossover going into production. Next gen Zoe is looking great.

For me everyone else falls into the 'unknown' for now. The stuff that has been announced is £75k+ and not really representative of the mainstream. Some are making loads of noise with concepts etc. but not a lot of actual announcements (VW).

There are a few that are keeping quiet about joining the EV market (Toyota, Honda, Ford, PSA), I'm sure they have stuff in the pipeline but there is zero hype for it. Honda and Toyota bet big on hydrogen, so its fairly safe to assume they are a little behind right now.
 
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