Brexit thread - what happens next

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He's providing a realistic outcome based on compromise.

Even if the UK and EU went to the table as equals (which they aren't) there would have to compromise and we know what the EU believes in the most.



Which in the long run may be the best course of action for the EU as it is an existential threat.

It isn't killing a state, it would simply be not extending the UK any discretionary courtesy. After all we would be the ones invoking Article 50.

Yes its showing the other countries if you dare leave we will do this to you, its a dictatorship.
 
Looks like the pound is on the long march down again...

you've got to wait until London starts trading really, it has opened lower in Asia but it hasn't then made a big move... frankly it could bounce all over the place on low volume.

Need to wait and see what speeches/press releases etc.. go out tomorrow morning - Osborne saying some nice things and/or some good statement from a significant EU/German figure could just as easily see it change course.
 
Yes its showing the other countries if you dare leave we will do this to you, its a dictatorship.

Do what exactly? The UK wants to leave the bloc.

All existing treaties become null and void. The EU would then negotiate with it's own interests in mind, for the benefit of its remaining members.

Why are you expecting the EU to be altruistic in it's approach with the UK? We knew what would happen if we left, why is it a surprise to you?
 
I cannot believe Osborne is going to wait until just before our stock market opens to say anything about this while the currency is tumbling.
 
Actually the uncertainty around whether the UK will actually leave the EU is what is keeping the £ and domestic markets partially propped up.

Can't remember who said it earlier, but what we have seen is nothing compared to what would happen when Article 50 gets invoked. The current prices reflect the chances of it happening and not happening.

However, uncertainty has other consequences which stops people investing as they want to wait and see what will happen, which reduces economic activity in the UK and EU.
Yes, but do they really want to push a country like the UK so far that it could push them out of NATO, that would be a serious crisis in Europe, the US will not stand for it.
 
I was getting at whatever has happened that racists have decided means it's now OK to be racist publicly and then assault people. If Boris presents a watered-down deal then it's going to get uglier.

Personally I wouldn't let the country be held ransom by a bunch of knuckle-draggers with little to nothing to offer, but I think it needs to be taken into consideration. Especially since the usual suspects in the press will try and derive maximum capital from portraying a deal as a failure/betrayal.

I don't think it will be as they're not really Boris' target demographic... they're in poor areas that used to vote labour and will probably be targeted by UKIP
 
Do what exactly? The UK wants to leave the bloc.

All existing treaties become null and void. The EU would then negotiate with it's own interests in mind, for the benefit of its remaining members.

Why are you expecting the EU to be altruistic in it's approach with the UK? We knew what would happen if we left, why is it a surprise to you?

Its not a surprise to me, what is a surprise is the EU showing their true colours to all which is a worry.
 
I don't think it will be as they're not really Boris' target demographic... they're in poor areas that used to vote labour and will probably be targeted by UKIP

It won't be held to ransom but I think it's very optimistic to expect any deal to be announced without a violent response.
 
I cannot believe Osborne is going to wait until just before our stock market opens to say anything about this while the currency is tumbling.

doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things, if he says nice things then some short move on low volume in Asian trading hours early Monday can easily be reversed... if not then it is going to fall anyway
 
Its not a surprise to me, what is a surprise is the EU showing their true colours to all which is a worry.

Their true colours, that they negotiate hard in the interests of its members?

Those are colours I would expect of any political body, and I don't see it as a bad thing.
 
It won't be held to ransom but I think it's very optimistic to expect any deal to be announced without a violent response.

they're violent anyway as are their anti-fascist counter demonstrators... that sort of stuff is going to happen regardless of EU referendums etc..
 
they're violent anyway as are their anti-fascist counter demonstrators... that sort of stuff is going to happen regardless of EU referendums etc..

Also, violence in the UK is very much a relative thing. Discontent in the UK is never that bad when you look around the world, including other developed countries.
 
If people are going to get violent due to having their vote sort of ignored then I'd rather just try fully ignoring it, but I think we have passed that point and inflicted enough damage that being allowed to walk back to the table isn't going to happen.

Three+ months for a new Tory party leader and a decision on this is going to be brutal though.
 
Why would the UK be pushed out of NATO?

How is that even related?

Many reasons, when you push a country too far all sorts of things happen, look at Japan ww1 and look at it ww2 two different sides.

If you try to economically damage a country you push them to do things they have no choice, Nato members need to spend 2% most haven't, but if the UK cant afford it then there's no point being in it anymore or defending a organisation that's hurting you economically.
The EU is becoming problematic to Europe and the continents around it, Juncker is going to get his wish of a European Army now that the UK is not around.
 
If people are going to get violent due to having their vote sort of ignored then I'd rather just try fully ignoring it, but I think we have passed that point and inflicted enough damage that being allowed to walk back to the table isn't going to happen.

Three+ months for a new Tory party leader and a decision on this is going to be brutal though.

I don't think a minority of idiots getting violent should even be a factor worth considering... what is worth considering is that we've voted out but only just... so some form of deal would be nice to aim for and ideally appeal to a good portion of both remain and leave voters. We do need to leave, leave did win... but a deal with the EU could well be easier than simply turning our backs and trying WTO rules and will acknowledge the fact that nearly half the country went for remain (some out of safety and some because they really really like the EU).
 
What I find absolutely amazing about the remain camp is that there is absolutely zero acknowledgement or any hint of a reconciliatory tone towards those who voted for Leave. Absolutely zero acknowledgement, or care for that matter, of what their concerns were and still are. Zero attempt bridge that gap or understand or even find a compromise. Just a continuation of dooms day scenario and old mother hen 'Youll see!' , 'Mother know best' smug attitude.

I understand and agree but i think they would find it easier to attempt to bridge the gap of there was even a shred of a plan. Not to mention wounds are fresh. Did you really expect a right'o old chap good game on a 52/48 split that directly impacts everyone differently.

I've spent allot of time thinking this weekend and out is the right idea in the long run but we should have been honest with or citizens and prepared them all for thr difficulties ahead. This isn't an Issue you can just dive into
But here we are....
 
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Stop crying, accept the result. Get a new government, sort a deal out and lets move on.

You mean like Nigel, who's done nothing but ***** on about the EU for the last 20 years, and on the eve of the referendum said if we lose this battle, we've not lost the war.

People will never move on from this. The country is divided... permanently. It will only get worse as the monumental level of stupidity of this "decision" really sinks in.
 
Their true colours, that they negotiate hard in the interests of its members?

Those are colours I would expect of any political body, and I don't see it as a bad thing.
Not about negotiations, about the quote regarding John Byng from the Polish EU president he said it with a smile thats what I'm worried about. 100 years ago something like this would be war.
"it is good to kill an admiral from time to time, in order to encourage the others"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Byng
 
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