It is and has been for a long time RBR for constructor and vett for drivers, not even merc will challenge.
Merc qualifying yeah, race and over the season it's RBR.
I'm surprised mclaren haven't developed faster, they normally are good a t producing a hog and out developing others.
Without driver feedback there will be no epic development in season. Merc are improving race on race(obviously there are outliers, going from a track that suits merc to one that doesn't), Red Bull are improving, Ferrari I don't think are going backwards as much as Merc/Red Bull have moved forward, but missing out on buttloads of Massa running from tyre problems, car problems, certainly would put them back.
Button can't set up a car, he's proven it over and over, and that will have huge consequences with driver feedback on if new parts are working or not. If the guys in the factory/wind tunnel come up with a part that seems brilliant but the driver can't find the set up to "turn it on" and doesn't like it, the factory has no idea where to go, they dump the new "better" part and the car has lost ground on other cars that improve race on race. I said at the time that Button's crapness in finding a great car setup will hurt them.
Its a bit unfair to compare due to lack of money and in season changes for Brawn that year, but look how far ahead that car was beginning of season, midway through the car wasn't nearly as competitive and that last few tenths from a perfectly set up car were no where to be seen.
As for Hamilton, once again out performing Rosberg(who apparently is beating Hamilton...) and once again the gap was over 0.4 seconds. People just need to realise that EVERY driver has tracks they are slightly worse or slightly better at and in particular Rosberg has shown over the past 4 years to be a great qualifier and less good race day, it was absurd to believe Hamilton would win qualifying in every race.
At this stage I agree with you that I'd be surprised by anything other than a RBR title win, a qualifying car is one thing, a race car is another. The Mclaren last year was as strong as the Merc this year in qualifying(as yet over a season who knows) but in race, no comparison and Mclaren didn't win either last year. Merc this year are last year's Mclaren but FAR weaker in race pace. As yet I don't think the car is capable through updates of just suddenly matching any of Lotus/Ferrari/RBR on tyre wear, they will probably improve but it won't be enough. I see them qualifying top 4 all season now(bar the odd race that really doesn't suit the car, no idea how many left), but dropping back through the race, they may reduce that, and best case scenario if they improve every race in another 3-4 races they might start picking up a few wins, but it will already be too late by then. They won't hit the point where their tyre deg is so improved they could win every race in the second half of the season which is the only way they'd close the gap and beat Vettel or Red Bull.
Till the new cars next year Merc just have a design that fundamentally has worse tyre wear, they'll compete for poles, they'll probably get another win or two, but that car just isn't capable of winning enough races to beat Vettel in either championship.
Every practice, qualifying and race just gets better...... for the guys who said Hamilton would struggle at the crap Merc and is a fool to leave Mclaren. More money, less work(media crap) more sponsorship money(because more sponsors with less work), better car, more competitive, better points and without as many massive screw ups by the team. There isn't even a single way in which he'd have been better off staying at Mclaren, even I didn't think it would be SO one sided though I thought it was a great decision at the time.