If anyone who doesn't know what XGL is about, there's loads of videos on YouTube showing the various Linux 3D window managers. For example:
XGL demo - 3D hardware drawing the screen across dual TFT's
I've taken a look at Vista's Aero and it's nice but nothing that Linux hasn't had in various guises for some time now. I can't comment on the extensibility of it in comparison. But with XGL, AIGL, looking Glass, Compiz, Beryl, etc, etc, being open source then I expect that if it's missing then it will get added soonish anyway.
I use a dual boot XP and Linux (Ubuntu) machine. The GUI (of which there are many to choose from - Gnome is my favourite) has come along leaps and bounds in recent years. I'm now starting to prefer Linux/Gnome. Certainly I find the performance under Linux far better with my dual core CPU than under XP. It just feels more fluid.
The big issue for most users with Linux isn't really the GUI imho (which, as I've said is now not that far off XP/Vista and in some areas I think beats it). The issue is installing stuff and getting into dependency hell. But this issue stems from having such a wide choice of software to use.
For the vast majority of home users I'd say Linux is definitely an option for them. If all you need is a word processor, browser, email, etc, then does it matter whether you use OSX, XP, Vista or some Linux variant? In a few years the migration will be away from desktop apps and towards web based apps anyway.
I keep my XP partition for games. So there is a pressure on me to upgrade to Vista to get DX10. But I just can't see the cost being worth it. I may as well just buy a console instead. And if that happens then I may as well wipe XP too.