Current generation CPU longevity estimates

[q974739]

Afternoon all. I'd be very interest in your opinions on the longevity of the current generation CPUs. We currently have a set of very interesting offers available on Overclockers for AMD. We have a whole bunch of intels that aren't actually bad....and we have the 5800x3D dark horse coming shortly.

So how long do we reckon the current CPUs (and 5800X3D, it's close enough to here to count) will last as effective CPUs?

My first thought is that the 5600X will be the first to drop off first - and likely the 6 core intels (12600 and worse) shortly after. Not sure if this is going to be 2 years (devs finally start using 8 threads properly!) or 4, next console generation.

But at the high end, especially for games - I have no idea which will die first, the 5800X3D or the 5900x. The First being very vulnerable to larger engines in cache (but they'd have to stay reasonable for consoles, so it should be safer?) vs the vastly higher core count and larger surface for cooling.

Anyway, what do you guys think? (Yes, I'm procrastinating about the AMD offers. Hoping to spark dicussion that might help me make a decision.)

 

[Tetras]

I think the 5600X or 12400 will last at least 5 years and at that point the 8 core CPUs will be outperformed by 6 in the new CPUs anyway. But, it depends if you're talking about playable, or something else e.g. high-refresh gaming.

I doubt that the 5900X or 5950X will outlast the 5800X or 5800X3D as effective gaming CPUs. There still seems to be a strong reliance on the performance of each core and unless that changes I still see the entire generation dating the same way (similar to how the 1700 or 1800X aren't really much better than the 1600 in games right now, against a 6 core Zen 3 like the 5600X).

 

[MissChief]

Given that decade old CPU’s like the 4690k are still able to provide completely viable experiences today I reckon anything with 6-8 cores, outside of benchmarks and productivity will remain viable for a decade or more.

 

[Armageus]

Given that decade old CPU’s like the 4690k are still able to provide completely viable experiences today I reckon anything with 6-8 cores, outside of benchmarks and productivity will remain viable for a decade or more.

Have to agree with this - anything "current" with 6 or 8 cores will still be able to run mainstream games at an acceptable level for a significant time to come.

Outside of productivity workloads, chips like the 5900x offer little , and so aren't going to buy you any more "future proofing" for gaming workloads - by the time games require that number of cores, we will have moved on another 10 generations...

 

[Perfect_Chaos]

Current chips will still be decent for a while but we're also going to see big increases in a shortish time IMO.

I have a feeling the 13700/k/f will step all over the 5800x3D in everything with the increased cache and overall performance. But I won't buy into RPL only to have no upgrades. In that case MTL or Zen 4 makes the most sense.

 

[HACO]

They will be more than adequate for gaming at least until the next generation of consoles come. That's always the determining factor for gaming.

 

[McGraw]

Given that decade old CPU’s like the 4690k are still able to provide completely viable experiences today I reckon anything with 6-8 cores, outside of benchmarks and productivity will remain viable for a decade or more.

4690k is only just over 7 and a half years old.

I have a 4790k clinging on. I would have upgraded a long time ago if I’d made the mistake of going 4690k like many suggested at the time

 

[q974739]

4690k is only just over 7 and a half years old.

I have a 4790k clinging on. I would have upgraded a long time ago if I’d made the mistake of going 4690k like many suggested at the time

I had a 6600k, and if it hasn't died of lightning, it was going to be replaced SOON. Was no longer cutting it in gaming.

 

[CuriousTomCat]

The PS5 and Xbox have 8c16t Zen 2. That's the spec that PC games will be designed for. The last console generation lasted 7 years. So expect that spec of PC to last until 2027.

Also, Nvidia 4090 is supposed to be 100% faster than 3090. Nvidia 5090 will probs be 50% faster than 4090. If that's the case, the 5090 will be 300% faster than the 3090.

So you guys who mentioned the 5600x - do you honestly think it will keep up with a GPU that's 3x faster than a 3090? We only talking about September 2024 until September 2026.

 

[q974739]

The PS5 and Xbox have 8c16t Zen 2. That's the spec that PC games will be designed for. The last console generation lasted 7 years. So expect that spec of PC to last until 2027.

Also, Nvidia 4090 is supposed to be 100% faster than 3090. Nvidia 5090 will probs be 50% faster than 4090. If that's the case, the 5090 will be 300% faster than the 3090.

So you guys who mentioned the 5600x - do you honestly think it will keep up with a GPU that's 3x faster than a 3090? We only talking about September 2024 until September 2026.

Do you think the issue will be lack of cores,IPC, frequency, PCI version...?

 

[Tetras]

The PS5 and Xbox have 8c16t Zen 2. That's the spec that PC games will be designed for. The last console generation lasted 7 years. So expect that spec of PC to last until 2027.

Also, Nvidia 4090 is supposed to be 100% faster than 3090. Nvidia 5090 will probs be 50% faster than 4090. If that's the case, the 5090 will be 300% faster than the 3090.

So you guys who mentioned the 5600x - do you honestly think it will keep up with a GPU that's 3x faster than a 3090? We only talking about September 2024 until September 2026.

If the rumours about the next-gen cards are true, they will outpace the consoles very quickly (the same as the last console generation), so in that case the 5600X won't need to keep up to be playable in current gen console games.

 

[ChocAndGray]

At high resolution a modern cpu will last 3 years minimum easily.

It really depends on an individual and their specific usage. If you're happy to play at 4k60fps then you'll be fine for even longer.

 

[q974739]

At high resolution a modern cpu will last 3 years minimum easily.

Define "modern"

 

[Poneros]

A decade, easily.

That's in general. On the other hand there are certain scenarios, aiming for 120+ fps, in AAA games (+raytracing) where that's not possible so you'd have to upgrade every cycle if that's the standard you require of the CPU. Else for 60 fps it's gonna have a long life.

 

[ChocAndGray]

Define "modern"

Anything from the 10900k era (even 9900k potentially) would be fine in my opinion.

There's people playing with older than that with no issues.

With a lack of pc focused game releases, there's nothing that really pushes the hardware unless it's badly optimised.

 

[q974739]

Anything from the 10900k era (even 9900k potentially) would be fine in my opinion.

There's people playing with older than that with no issues.

With a lack of pc focused game releases, there's nothing that really pushes the hardware unless it's badly optimised.

Not sure I'd include the basic 3600 in that...

 

[dave28]

Depends how fussy you are, maybe 5 years will be kinda ok if not fussy.

But i do think its mostly the GPU`s that start to look sluggish as they cant cope with new games.

 

[Dave2150]

Given that decade old CPU’s like the 4690k are still able to provide completely viable experiences today I reckon anything with 6-8 cores, outside of benchmarks and productivity will remain viable for a decade or more.

Viable to whom?

There's folk still using black and white TV's, they'd say this is a "viable" experience.

4690 cannot run games at 4k, while doing typical background tasks (discord, youtube, spotify, few other apps) at the same time as a AAA game. A 6700k can't. Even 9900k's struggle with some games, when running typical apps at the same time.

 

[q974739]

4690 cannot run games at 4k, while doing typical background tasks (discord, youtube, spotify, few other apps) at the same time as a AAA game. A 6700k can't. Even 9900k's struggle with some games, when running typical apps at the same time.

Where would you draw the line? What predictions would you make?

 

[Dg834man]

Where would you draw the line? What predictions would you make?

When was the last time dave gamed on anything but the latest intel cpu , i used a x5650 @ 4.4ghz on x58 up till about a year and a half ago it was only then the single core performance was not really adequate for online fps games