Euromillions

rodenal said:
Need is all relative though isn't it?

Personally, given the extremely small chance of winning no matter whether you're going in as an individual or as a syndicate i'd rather get the cash all to myself.

If it's going to happen, it'll happen, trying to play an odds game rarely works - it's the same with all forms of gambling
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I would sooner have a 10 times greater chance to win 1/10th of the money than a much smaller chance to win the entire pot. Even if the chances are so rediculously small in the first place, I just wouldn't have need for a jackpot of that size.

Its the main reason I just play the standard lottery. Odds are better, the money is more than enough for me and the tickets are cheaper. I never expect to win or even fantasise about the possiblity of winning, I forget I have active tickets most of the time. I would probably stop my direct debit if it wasn't for the what if scenario where I cancel my DD and the numbers come up ffffffuuuuu.....
 
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I'd quit my job and possibly go back to uni, and quit my job, or do some personal improvement, quit my job and study something that I find interesting (nutrition/biomechanics/MBA etc...)

I'd quit my job.

Oh and did I mention I'd quit my job? :p
 
Freefaller said:
I'd quit my job and possibly go back to uni, and quit my job, or do some personal improvement, quit my job and study something that I find interesting (nutrition/biomechanics/MBA etc...)

I'd quit my job.

Oh and did I mention I'd quit my job? :p
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Are you going to quit your job? :p You must love it? :D
 
rodenal said:
If it's going to happen, it'll happen, trying to play an odds game rarely works - it's the same with all forms of gambling
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Um no it's not. It's your attitude that the gambling industry thrive on.

To prove it, let's me and you go into a casino with £100 each and you play willy nilly making nigh on random choice bets and I'll bet using my knowledge of casino odds and we'll see who has the most money after an hour.
 
estebanrey said:
Um no it's not. It's your attitude that the gambling industry thrive on.

To prove it, let's me and you go into a casino with £100 each and you play willy nilly making nigh on random choice bets and I'll bet using my knowledge of casino odds and we'll see who has the most money after an hour.
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Is the answer the casino?
 
timebomb26 said:
Is the answer the casino?
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After an hour probably not, for me anyway because I'd play BlackJack using basic strategy which should (depending on the rules) reduce the house edge to less that 1% meaning after an hour I would still have more of the £100 I started with than the casino (statistically speaking of course, I could have a lucky run or an unlucky run)
 
estebanrey said:
(statistically speaking of course, I could have a lucky run or an unlucky run)
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That's my key point though, you can play the odds game and it may well work on occasion or you may well minimise loss but at the end of the day some complete idiot could walk in behind you, stick £250 on 0 (I know you were talking blackjack and not roulette) and it'll come up. There's only ever 1 winner even if you play a low odds, long term strategy - anyone who gambles will always tell you of the big wins, never of the multiple losses.

Don't get me wrong I enjoy a trip to the casino on occasion and I too will have a system of sorts planned out but anyone who thinks they can beat the game long term is sorely mistaken.
 
rodenal said:
That's my key point though, you can play the odds game and it may well work on occasion or you may well minimise loss but at the end of the day some complete idiot could walk in behind you, stick £250 on 0 (I know you were talking blackjack and not roulette) and it'll come up. At the end of the day there's only ever 1 winner - anyone who gambles will always tell you of the big wins, never of the multiple losses.

Don't get me wrong I enjoy a trip to the casino on occasion but anyone who thinks they can beat the system so to speak is sorely mistaken.
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Well you can beat the system by hole carding or card counting in blackjack but that's another debate.

Yes you are correct that anyone can get 'lucky' at anytime but over the long term (people rarely visit the casino once) people who know odds and probability theory and use it will end up losing less than the guy who goes in and gets lucky once.
 
Well yes, beat the system in terms of legal practice.

Again, people who work on odds / probability may or may not end up losing less but lets face it those who have gone to the bother of trying to work out a tactical way to play aren't exactly the "visit on a drunken saturday night" type, they will be spending a lot of time playing. The same idiot from above could walk back in 6 months later having spent £5k of his circa £9k winnings thinking he will play it a bit safer this time - no real thought here just a bit of caution, fire 4 grand onto black and win. He's then made a substantial "profit" from what may be 2 hours of playing
 
sunama said:
Greboth, how much did you win?
Most people win poultry* amounts.
Did you win anything significant?

*I shall refrain from correcting the spelling....because the next post will lose its comedic value. ;)
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They were all poultry amounts :p Past couple of weeks I have won about £40 as I said. I won £17 on Tuesday, £5 on Friday's and the rest of the £40 was made up from syndicate winnings. Though the syndicate winnings have just been left in the syndicate to be used for future draws. So no one should get their hopes up of me buying them that table lol.
 
Judgeneo said:
Yup, anything that alters the outcome of the game is illegal in the UK. Interestingly monitoring roulette wheels with your smartphone to predict the outcome is totally legal in the UK though (against house rules probably).
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Which is a totally pointless exercise nowadays. Roulette Wheel manufacturer using ultra precise machinery and the regular calibration of them makes finding a biased wheel an extremely rare event.

If the wheel isn't biased then monitoring past results is pointless given roulette wheels don't have a memory.
 
estebanrey said:
Which is a totally pointless exercise nowadays. Roulette Wheel manufacturer using ultra precise machinery and the regular calibration of them makes finding a biased wheel an extremely rare event.

If the wheel isn't biased then monitoring past results is pointless given roulette wheels don't have a memory.
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Not true, by using a bit of physics its possible to create a model that predicts where the ball will land within 4-5 segments. All the user has to do is film the ball, get a prediction and bet before the time limit. I entered a competition last year to make such a model, I didn't win unfortunately, the winning program had a 147% return on investment.
 
Judgeneo said:
Not true, by using a bit of physics its possible to create a model that predicts where the ball will land within 4-5 segments. All the user has to do is film the ball, get a prediction and bet before the time limit. I entered a competition last year to make such a model, I didn't win unfortunately, the winning program had a 147% return on investment.
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I'd be very skeptical of those results, luck could have played a huge part for a start but without knowing their methodology I couldn't comment further on that particular figure.

In theory what you are saying is true, however in practice it's not because roulette wheels have bumps placed around them that deliberately randomise the ball direction, when they do hit the numbers they often bounce all over the place before landing in the slot.

Furthermore what you're talking about still has nothing to do with past results but the physical characteristics of each spin. The croupier will never spin the wheel from the same place everytime, they won't spin the wheel at the same speed nor will they launch the ball at the same speed so past results are useless.

There are plenty of online casinos that offer 'live video roulette' where no one is watching you and you can monitor the wheel as much as you like (in fact they do this on ITV every night as well). If what you are saying is true those online casinos would be losing money hand over fist, especially given the players have a computer at their disposal to do the monitoring.
 
One thing to remember is that Casinos will encourage you to use a "system". This encourages players to place bets (and more than likely lose money). Most of the hardcore players have a "system". Hardcore players will convince themselves that they can if they use their "system".

The moment that a casino finds that a player is winning an uncomfortably high percentage of games, they are likely to ask them to leave.

As estebanrey, if there existed a program which could offer a 147% ROI, this program would be bought by someone and used ruthlessly, before it eventually, gets banned.

I think that sophisticated programs could possibly give you an "edge", but to give you a 147% ROI....that's pretty amazing.
 
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