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Last season I felt that Button could conceivably beat Hamilton in equal machinery due to coming off a year in which he became World Champion, whereas Hamilton had suffered a year that you could kindly call 'challenging' and at worst call 'bruising' (Liegate in Australia being a prime example). The McLaren was likely to be a much better car from the get-go than the '09 one and therefore be unlikely to upset Button too much. And indeed, Button hardly disgraced himself going up against a guy with better raw pace who had been in the team for a lot longer.
This year there are a few more things in Hamilton's favour. KERS experience, for one. The double diffuser is going, so the cars are likely to have less stability in the rear end (especially with KERS adding to the braking effort at the rear of the car). And there's still the unarguable point that Hamilton is a better qualifier overall than Button. On a day when everyone is losing their head and conditions are appalling I reckon you're likely to find Button leading Hamilton home (if Hamilton hasn't already thrown it off the island)....on more normal days, Hamilton probably has him covered on pace alone.
Button is a great driver, a loyal team player, a supreme athlete and a decent human being. He'll grind out points results when the car isn't to his liking, and is untouchable when the stars align just right.
Hamilton is quicker.
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