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Arazi said:
And the longer this is dragged out more and more leave voters will be voting UKIP.

He is a clever man is Sir Nigel.
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You can be certain that if they call a general election, UKIP will get far more support than it did at the last.

Even if they don't call a general election and we end up with some halfway house deal with freedom of movement still, then you can Guarantee that UKIP will get more support at the next general election.
 
Mauller said:
You can be certain that if they call a general election, UKIP will get far more support than it did at the last.

Even if they don't call a general election and we end up with some halfway house deal with freedom of movement still, then you can Guarantee that UKIP will get more support at the next general election.
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Do you know just how much of the country has to vote UKIP for them to just take more seats than the DUP? Keep dreaming. :)
 
Mauller said:
You can be certain that if they call a general election, UKIP will get far more support than it did at the last.

Even if they don't call a general election and we end up with some halfway house deal with freedom of movement still, then you can Guarantee that UKIP will get more support at the next general election.
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Exactly, UKIP isn't going anywhere the way this is all panning out, leave voters will only wait so long, it is already happening, the actual leave win is never on the news agenda, it is all about the comedy show between the different political parties.

Leave voters are going to start thinking they being ignored again.
 
datalol-jack said:
Do you know just how much of the country has to vote UKIP for them to just take more seats than the DUP? Keep dreaming. :)
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IN the majority of constituencies they had MP's standing in, they came second, with many of them in a close second. It would not take them many more people voting to get a good number of people in.

You also have to take into account the amount of resent people would have for the main parties if we got some halfway house deal with freedom of movement still.

Remember that if the vote was based on constituencies, then Leave would have won with closer to 70% of the vote using FPTP.
 
Mauller said:
IN the majority of constituencies they had MP's standing in, they came second, with many of them in a close second. It would not take them many more people voting to get a good number of people in.

You also have to take into account the amount of resent people would have for the main parties if we got some halfway house deal with freedom of movement still.

Remember that if the vote was based on constituencies, then Leave would have won with closer to 70% of the vote using FPTP.
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That discards tactical voting and assumes all the leave voters agree.
 
datalol-jack said:
That discards tactical voting and assumes all the leave voters agree.
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The conservatives and Labour are already seen as having a massive disconnect with people across the country who voted leave. It would not take much for people to decide that UKIP is the only party that would give us control of our borders.

You have to remember that the majority of the UK outside of the more affluent areas have still been in recession since 2008, if not since before. There is a lot of resent for the main parties right now.
 
Mauller said:
The conservatives and Labour are already seen as having a massive disconnect with people across the country who voted leave. It would not take much for people to decide that UKIP is the only party that would give us control of our borders.

You have to remember that the majority of the UK outside of the more affluent areas have still been in recession since 2008, if not since before. There is a lot of resent for the main parties right now.
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What if we end up having to go with a deal involving free movement / EEA, Norway style?

If it is made clear that the arrangement outside the EU involves free movement in order to keep the economy (and the country) ticking, then do you think people would still vote for UKIP given that it has been proved we have to maintain free movement in or out of the EU?
 
Mauller said:
The conservatives and Labour are already seen as having a massive disconnect with people across the country who voted leave. It would not take much for people to decide that UKIP is the only party that would give us control of our borders.

You have to remember that the majority of the UK outside of the more affluent areas have still been in recession since 2008, if not since before. There is a lot of resent for the main parties right now.
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Great. Only trouble with that vision is: redrawn boundaries to favour the Tories; fewer MPs; UKIP's manifesto, which has little of appeal to the voters kicked by the Tories, provided anyone reads it; UKIP aren't that well off; safe seats are safe seats for a reason; the Tories are about to elect from a list of leaders who between them cover every mild prejudice imaginable, and are actually more competent than most of UKIP's lot put together; and so on.

A general election isn't a single issue binary choice -- which is where you're going off the cliff in your logic; don't cast a myth before the history is even written, in other words! :p
 
Six6siX said:
What if we end up having to go with a deal involving free movement / EEA, Norway style?

If it is made clear that the arrangement outside the EU involves free movement in order to keep the economy (and the country) ticking, then do you think people would still vote for UKIP given that it has been proved we have to maintain free movement in or out of the EU?
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We don't have to maintain freedom of movement in or out of the EU. And a lot of people would feel betrayed if that happened and it would increase resentment, similar to if the leave vote was ignored. hence why there was a majority of near 70% off all constituencies voting leave.

This had the largest voter turnout since 92, people in less affluent areas are far more adamant on control over our borders as they have to deal with the most negatives when it comes to freedom of movement.

The economy and country will keep ticking even if we had WTO trading, people seem to think that we have to be in a protectionist customs trade block to do well. we don't.
 
Mauller said:
We don't have to maintain freedom of movement in or out of the EU. And a lot of people would feel betrayed if that happened and it would increase resentment, similar to if the leave vote was ignored.

This had the largest voter turnout since 92, people in less affluent areas are far more adamant on control over our borders as they have to deal with the most negatives when it comes to freedom of movement.

The economy and country will keep ticking even if we had WTO trading, people seem to think that we have to be in a protectionist customs trade block to do well. we don't.
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We don't. But we are likely to have to in order to access the single market. I'm obviously speculating as to a post-brexit agreement here but it seems a likely scenario.

People should already feel betrayed by the backtracking done on the campaign upon which they based their votes - again, not everyone did, but a vast majority will have. I think this same majority will come to realisation that these were empty promises and this will backfire on UKIP given Farage's involvement and because the media is making it quite clear that there is a real possibility we will have to accept free movement.
 
What's strange, and I don't for one second believe you speak for all leave voters on this, is that throughout this thread we've had leave voters denying that immigration was the reason for voting leave, and now you're saying that this is the rise of UKIP because leave voters aren't going to get what they think they were promised in terms of immigration.

No-one within UKIP is capable of leading anything, what makes you think they're going to get any responsibility at all? Also, why do you think people will look at the situation and think 'well this isn't what Labour and Conservatives promised, we've still got freedom of movement!' when both parties were split on leave/remain and only UKIP were fully leave and made many promises they had no way of keeping.
 
Gilly said:
No-one within UKIP is capable of leading anything, what makes you think they're going to get any responsibility at all?
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Can't lead anything apart from the motion and the vigour to have a referendum on the issue... The elephant in the room.

My main reason was democracy. What other leave voters say is their choice, I don't speak for all of them. My reason was clear when I started seeing what the EU did to nations especially Greece
 
Gilly said:
What's strange, and I don't for one second believe you speak for all leave voters on this, is that throughout this thread we've had leave voters denying that immigration was the reason for voting leave, and now you're saying that this is the rise of UKIP because leave voters aren't going to get what they think they were promised in terms of immigration.

No-one within UKIP is capable of leading anything, what makes you think they're going to get any responsibility at all? Also, why do you think people will look at the situation and think 'well this isn't what Labour and Conservatives promised, we've still got freedom of movement!' when both parties were split on leave/remain and only UKIP were fully leave and made many promises they had no way of keeping.
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uncontrolled immigration and controlling our own borders played a big part along with repatriation etc. Along with getting us out of a protectionist, self serving and undemocratic trade and customs cartel.

Also Labour were strongly in favour of remain, why else do you think there was so much news about them being out of touch with their main supporters? The only one that we can assume voted out was corbyn considering he would not reveal if he voted remain or leave.

Also seeing that the conservatives are in now, if we just ended up with an EU-lite deal with uncontrolled freedom of movement and the EU still dictating some of our policy then you can be sure that people would hate them for it.
 
RaohNS said:
Always supported a smaller number of MP's. 500 would be about right imo
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Considering we won't have the EU dictating legislation to us anymore. Maybe they will start working every day of the week now instead of only turning up in numbers for the charade known as PMQ's.
 
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