Fixtures for the Coming Season

Tombstone said:
So despite the 3rd having 15 teams to pick from, 4 of which are the big 4. (4 out of 15 possibles) its still 55% chance? Even though there are 15 possible outcomes for the opponent? It makes sense to me if there are only 8 teams to pick from , 4 of which are the big 4...as that would then be 4 out of 8.

Bit like this...

G = green , r = red.

GGGGGGGGGGGRRRR

If I have to pick one of those 15, is it a 55% chance that I would pick R? Or would that require it to look like this...

GGGGGGGRRRRRRRR
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No, it's a 55% chance when you combine them all together. You're only interested in the 3rd outcome if the two before have already failed to produce the result you wanted! So it's not a completely independent 25%.

Ah crap, I spent ages drawing a little paint diagram to show it all, and now I find out my works blocked uploadit :/

Basically, the four in fifteen you keep referring to will only occur in the outcome of B having happened twice already (so BB). So yes, at that point, B is a 25% chance, but overall, it isn't.

Let's be specific and include possiblity C: that one new team draws another. therefore, taking the draws of all three teams into account, you have twelve different outcomes:
AAA, AAB, ABA, ABB, AC*, BAA, BAB, BBA, BBB, BC*, CA*, CB*.

Now, by itself, BBB has by far the highest probabiliy of happening, at about 35%. But all we care about is any outcome that contains an A, be it AAA or CA. And there are only three outcomes that don't contain an A: BBB, BC, and CB. BC and CB bother have probabilities of about 5%. Which means the total for the three is ~45%. So the remainder, by the process of elimination, is ~55%.

Thus, over 50% chance of a new team drawing a big four team.

*If one new team draws another, there's no third draw, obviously. And there's no CC, equally.
 
Weebull said:
No, it's a 55% chance when you combine them all together. You're only interested in the 3rd outcome if the two before have already failed to produce the result you wanted! So it's not a completely independent 25%.
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Why arent they independent? Surely the 3rd newly promoted one has 15 teams that they could draw (assuming the first 2 didnt get a big 4 team...if they did then they would actually have even lower chance as the big 4 would then be a big 3 or big 2). Surely at the end of the day its 4 in 15 chance of getting one of the big 4?

15 possible teams that they could be drawn against, 4 of which are the big 4. 4 in 15?

Or if one of the other 2 had drawn a big 4 already...then 3 in 15.

Or if both had drawn big 4 opponents already ..then 2 in 15.

Still trying to figure out why a 4 in 15 chance is 55%. Surely 55% would be an 8 in 15 chance?
 
*Smacks head*

If one of the other 2 have drawn a top 4 side you don't care because ONE OF THE OTHER TWO HAS DRAWN A TOP 4 SIDE.
 
Weebull said:
*Smacks head*

If one of the other 2 have drawn a top 4 side you don't care because ONE OF THE OTHER TWO HAS DRAWN A TOP 4 SIDE.
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So surely in that case its a simple straight forward 4 in 19 chance?

Sorry if my intellect is not as great as yours and is causing you to have to smack your oh so superior head...I am simply trying to figure out how a 4 in 19, or 4 in 17 or 4 in 15 chance works out as 55%. Just seems to me that it would have to be an 8 in 15 chance in order to be 55%. (or 9 in 17 , or 10 in 19)


EDIT : Rather than further polluting the thread I will pop down to the Maths faculty where I work and ask one of the Professors there to explain to me why its a 55% of getting one of the big 4. Perhaps they can explain it in a way I can understand and it saves you any further cranial damage :)
 
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Blackpool first game, ffs and away wanted it in the April/May for a long weekend, got a holiday next month and wedding to go to in August.
 
What a surprise that we (WBA) get one of the big 4 away on opening day. Never had the big 4 away one after the other consecutively though. Well done the FA!
 
Tombstone said:
EDIT : Rather than further polluting the thread I will pop down to the Maths faculty where I work and ask one of the Professors there to explain to me why its a 55% of getting one of the big 4. Perhaps they can explain it in a way I can understand and it saves you any further cranial damage :)
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Sorry, I don't mean to come across as condescending, but I keep trying to answer your question, and yet you keep repeating it. I guess that's as much me failing to explain it, but still, it does get frustrating.

You're taking three picks in a row. The probability of any one outcome is the first % times the second % times the third. Therefore, you're beloved 4/15 pick isn't a straight 25%, it's assuming the first two picks aren't top 4 either. So 13/19 x 12/17 x 4/15 = 13%. 13% of drawing a top 4 team after not drawing one the previous two picks. So even lower than you said, right? Except that the only way to not get a top 4 drawn is to not draw one every round. So that's 13/19 x 12/17 x 11/15 = 35%.

I know I'm coming across as rude, I'm sorry. No offence meant, I'm just a prickly git online. :)

EDIT: If a mod could split all this off into a seperate thread titled Weebull Explains Maths Terribly that would be quite nice. We have kind of ruined this one.

EDIT 2: Finally found somewhere that's not blocked to upload. Here: http://www.myimagespace.com/pfiles/3757/percentages.JPG

As you can see, the maths in working it out isn't perfect, since there's a missing 7%, but that's mainly because I rounded nearly all of them down. I'd take those both as definite minimums.
 
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cheets64 said:
**** me the football season is months away and we already have people arguing, grow a pair
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Discussion where two people have differing opinions does not necessarily equal argument, though I can understand how the conflict obsessed internet crowd might see it that way. :)

(though admittedly its semantics about when a discussion becomes a debate becomes an argument)
 
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Perfect fixture list. Spurs have got away fixtures for the two weekends when I'm on holiday. I should be able to make it to every home game. :D
 
quote from spurs website:
It's also worth noting that there is a round of fixtures scheduled for FA Cup Final day, May 14. We are scheduled to travel to Liverpool on that day. The date and kick-off time of that fixture may change subject to the FA Cup Final.
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there's also fixtures for the 22nd.. What's going on here then?
 
I agree and think it should be retrospectively applied immediately.

EDIT: In seriousness I think the dates are just placeholders at the moment, as there's also the CL final next year isn't there? So with that and the play-offs I don't think they're sure of the scheduling yet.
 
Admiral Huddy said:
yep.. FA cup winners should have 4th place into CL not 4th place in the league.
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To be fair though, why bother with that?

We're not the only country where the teams at the top (i.e. those that should be leading by example) really can't be bothered about the leading cup competition. The money, tv listings, effort and adoration is pretty much put in the league and Europe. I enjoyed the FA and Carling Cups while younger, but once UTD ditched it in favour of playing in South America in 2000 it has never really recovered in my eyes. Even when Arsenal won a few in the early noughties it was a nice addition at the end of the season rather than anything else. I usually was either still peeved or happy that we lost or won the league respectively.

Teams would rather get to fourth these days than an FA Cup, I know what Spurs last year would prefer.
 
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