Poll: General election voting intentions poll

[semi-pro waster]

This is an early chance to indicate your voting intentions. If you're not going to vote or you're going to spoil your ballot then please don't vote in the poll, by all means post in this thread and explain why you're not voting but the poll is meant just for people who are intending to vote.

It covers all parties who currently have at least one seat in the House of Commons but if you're going to vote for another party that isn't listed then you can indicate that with the "other" option and explain (or not). It's anonymous so unless you want to say who you're voting for there's no need to post it.

The option in alphabetical order are are:
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
Conservative
Democratic Unionist Party
Green Party
Labour
Liberal Democrat
Other party (not named)
Plaid Cymru
Respect Party
Scottish National Party
Social Democratic and Labour Party
Sinn Fein
UKIP

The poll runs for 20 days from today, after that point there might be another poll to see if the voting intentions change.

 

[semi-pro waster]

I think we should have a 'spoil ballot' and 'undecided' option to cover all bases, because then this poll can be run every few weeks and the change in % each option receives can be tracked. At the moment you aren't capturing people who are sure they will vote but aren't at the point where they can pick a party.

True, it's not perfect but the idea here is to capture the people who have already determined who they want to vote for. Possibly for future iterations of the poll then an undecided or spoil ballot option could be included as they would have more validity set against the national picture (albeit a spoiled ballot is recorded in the same way as votes where the voter forgot which end of the pen was correct) but this poll is in response to a specific request.

 

[semi-pro waster]

Spoiled ballots are counted. If 50% of the population spoiled the ballot then it would be taken very seriously. The issue is most people don't think that it is a valid option and will either not vote or will go for whatever they voted last time.

Counted in the sense that the number of spoiled ballots is recorded but there's no distinction drawn between a ballot where the voter clearly intends to say "none of the above" and a ballot where they've just failed to follow the instructions so it's invalid. That's a drawback to the current recording system - you can't tell whether we've got a sizeable percentage of people dissatisfied with the options on the ballot, whether we've got a sizeable percentage of incompetent people or somewhere between the two.

 

[semi-pro waster]

It is easy to measure a base rate of incompetent people though so if there was a large upswing in spiked ballots then it would be taken seriously. Ideally there would be a non of the above but we are taking politics here and things are far from ideal to begin with.

Maybe a large upswing in spoiled ballots would be taken seriously but that's only after the fact and by that point the election is over and done with, those who have voted for a party get their votes counted and the winner is chosen from them.

I'm not arguing with you about whether deliberately spoiled ballots should count for something or that there should be a "none of the above" option, I'm explaining whey they don't count at present (or at least not in the way that some people think they do). The best you're likely to get is the person totting up the ballots has an unofficial count of the obviously intentionally spoiled votes and maybe that your inventive and heartfelt questioning of the local candidates parentage raises a smile.

Intentional spoiling is a protest vote to say you're not happy with the candidates, not a retard who can’t fill out a ballot paper.

It's a valid choice of course but in terms of how it is counted at present in the UK there's no distinction between the person who can't fill it out correctly and the person who chooses not to fill it out correctly. The recording doesn't factor in the intention of the voter, the end result is the same, it's a vote that is not valid so it gets bundled in with the voter who hasn't managed to follow instructions.

 

[semi-pro waster]

It's your poll and you can put what options you want in it but seeing your trying to find out people's voting intentions it is not a very conclusive poll - imo.

It's not going to be a conclusive poll, it's set up for a specific purpose after a request and it's deliberately made this way to get people to pick one party if they're voting. Abstaining or spoiling your ballot are both perfectly valid options if you don't want to vote or don't want to vote for any of the options you have available but in a general sense the votes that count are the ones cast for a party - it's arguable about spoiled ballots rendering an election result invalid but the numbers you'd need to coordinate are so large that practically speaking it's unlikely enough to not be worth worrying about.

Maybe for the next running of a similar poll I'd put in abstain or spoiling ballot options but even so it would be only useful if this was being taken rather seriously and used as an indication of likely outcomes. And to do that you'd need to know where people were voting and the votes for other candidates across the rest of the voting population to identify potential swing counties. I think it's just a bit of fun but I'm willing to be persuaded that other options should be added.

Please can you add a 'none of the above' option to the poll.

Afraid it can't be added now without invalidating the existing results and this poll isn't designed to find out if you're dissatisfied with the options available to you at the moment anyway. That option might be added to a future poll though.

Interesting poll results.

Is this them demographic of Ocuk? or a true reflection of the general public

I would suspect the results so far owe a fair bit to the demographic but also partly down to the poll options. We do have a fairly wide spectrum of opinions on OcUK but in common most are technology literate, predominantly male, have a certain level of disposable income to pursue a hobby such as building computers/gaming and from memory the majority are in the 20-30 age bracket. Obviously these links don't apply to everyone but I think those are the main commonalities for whatever they are worth.

 

[semi-pro waster]

I've already voted in this poll but it's letting me vote again. Election fraud.

Is this your way of telling us you've got a duplicate account to vote twice in polls?

The poll hasn't been edited so it shouldn't allow a second vote unless something has gone wrong with the database which is possible I suppose.

I'm still waiting for the 3 IRA voters to reveal themselves.

The poll is anonymous so you could be waiting a long time unless people choose to make their voting intentions known through a post. It's one of the risks of holding open democratic elections, sometimes people take you up on that and elect individuals or parties that you disagree with.

 

[semi-pro waster]

Yeah, the Tories have bribing the pensioners for the last five years, buying the grey vote. Pensioner bonds only help rich pensioners, massive cuts to adult social care are killing the others

No different to labours client base of immigrants, unemployed, f e c kless and bone idle who have all been treated very well while labour have been in power so they'll never vote for anybody else.

+1

Labour go after the BME's , Asylum seekers , Immigrants etc.. etc...

It's nice that you guys can agree on some things after all - your common ground seeming to be that "the party I like least is doing their best to appeal to a group I don't belong to". And to think that some people say that there's no difference between the parties these days...

 

[semi-pro waster]

Does the forum software alphabetize the options or was that done manually?

Ticks my OCD box that does, a right turn on.


Phwoaaaar.

Glad to be of service, the forum software doesn't do it sadly.

Thank S-PW, I think he was trying to make it look more like a ballot sheet.

Incidentally, Small Data: How alphabetical ballots skew democracy

I didn't think about making it intentionally look like a ballot sheet, it was just the simplest way to set it out without getting accusations of bias in the ordering. Then again as you've shown it can still skew the results - I think/hope it's less of an issue when information about the various merits of the parties is fairly easily available though but that does still rely on people informing themselves.

I'd say the difference between this poll and properly conducted opinion polls suggests that you're wrong there.

I'd definitely not take the results from here as being equivalent to a proper opinion poll, this is just meant to be a bit of fun and it's hardly conducted in the most rigorous of circumstances.

 

[semi-pro waster]

I expected more from you Mr Jack. She may have a "clear" point (that the authors have a "culturally Marxist ideology") but she provides no evidence for it whatsoever. Have you skimmed any of the articles on there? They're so dry there's no room for ideology!

I may be way off base but I've got this sneaking suspicion that Mr Jack was being sarcastic.

I've got no idea whether Full Fact is the only UK based independent fact checking website as it seems to imply with "Full Fact is the UK's independent factchecking organisation" but I don't see the harm if you're using it as one source from many. Certainly the idea of having someone or something checking facts to see whether claims made are valid is no bad thing to my mind.

 

[semi-pro waster]

Iv asked 3 times already - where is the option for 'NO VOTE - democracy is an illusion'

It's all a load of rubbish, shame in this 'democracy' doesn't give people an option to refuse and not be heard

The poll is closed so no new options or votes can be added, it would need to be done in a new thread.

But what would it achieve to add a no vote option? Your choosing to abstain counts exactly the same on here as it does in any election. You've already got the right to refuse to vote (either in this poll or in the election) and not to be heard - that's your democratic right.

Out of interest though what would you replace democracy with?

 

[semi-pro waster]

It would be nice to have a followup vote, to see if peoples attitudes have changed, maybe in a couple of weeks, and then again just prior to the election.

Happy to re-run polling in a week or two just to see if there is any difference in voting intentions. I don't think adding an option for "democracy is an illusion" adds much though I'm willing to listen to arguments to the contrary.

Modified Technocracy, or dictorship, or Singapore, or Caliphate are being tried around the world currently.

Are these systems that you want to see replace democracy or are these simply alternative options that exist? Are any of these options working well?

 

[semi-pro waster]

Singapore works well. The others are madness driving from some versions of theology, either made up centuries ago, or in the case of north korea made up recently and continue to be made up.

Modified technocracy would be a perfect solution if it wasnt for humans

Ok, thanks for the reply although I guess my question should have been tighter as I wasn't really asking for lots of possible forms of rule, it was more to find out what Combat Squirrel would want instead of what he feels is an illusory democracy. However I can't help feeling that you sum up an awful lot of the problem with a great many things in those final five words...

Why was there not an "Undecided" option?

Because the poll was requested to be that way, it was for people who already knew their voting intentions. It's not designed to be predictively accurate and there's absolutely no controls or corrections for voting bias as you'd see in a proper poll, it's a snapshot for people who already have declared intentions. Next week (or next time the poll is run) it could be an entirely different set of votes.

why's the vote closed?

It was set to run for a short period (20 days) to give a chance to re-run it at intervals before the election itself and maybe see what changes. Albeit if the options are altered for a re-run to include other options it'll be even less use for comparison than before.

 

[semi-pro waster]

After the first debate I'm planning to run a new poll this afternoon for the next 30 days or so which will take us pretty much up to the election. I'll close this one so debate can move to the new thread.

Any requests for alterations to the polling?

 

[semi-pro waster]

No, Keep it as is

I think as we get closer it's fair enough to add in a do not intend to vote option as suggested.

Maybe add a 'Do not intend to vote' option?

Ok, will do.

A weekly poll snapshot would be nice which will then culminate with the GD election vote/discussion thread.

Ok, we can do this weekly for the run up.

In Finland they have bottle/can machines where you feed in your empty bottles and cans (various sizes) and it scans them and tots up how much money you get back. It's been a while since I lived there, so I can't remember the exact amounts, but at the end it printed you out a receipt which acted as a coupon for the value which you could then spend in store (you may have been able to convert it to cash... I can't remember ). It definitely led to more recycling - I was in a halls of residence, so full of students who were more than happy to get money back .

Oddly enough on San Pellegrino bottles you can see what returning them to the store in Finland is worth - I don't have one to hand but I'm pretty sure it's €0.20. I can't remember what you get for other bottles but I quite liked the system, you ended up with lots of students using the empties from a few crates to pay for the next crate of beer...

 

[semi-pro waster]

I'd ask which party people would want to win, rather than who they're voting for, given the FPTP system and how people may not vote for their ideal candidate.

It's a fair point but I reckon where people are tactically voting it's something people can explain if they choose, I think I'm more interested in in seeing how people are actually planning to vote.

Just pulled an empty bottle of S.Pellegrino out of my indoor recycling bin and it's 10c.

Thanks for the correction.

New thread is here for anyone to join in. I'll leave this one open for the next hour or so for any final comments before it's closed.

 

[semi-pro waster]

Please use the new thread here for further discussion and debate. Thank you.