The classic wisdom-of-the-crowds finding involves point estimation of a continuous quantity. At a 1906 country fair in Plymouth, eight hundred people participated in a contest to estimate the weight of a slaughtered and dressed ox. Statistician Francis Galton observed that the median guess, 1207 pounds, was accurate within 1% of the true weight of 1198 pounds.[3] This has contributed to the insight in cognitive science that a crowd's individual judgements can be modelled as a probability distribution of responses with the mean centred near the true mean of the quantity to be estimated.
The classic wisdom-of-the-crowds finding involves point estimation of a continuous quantity. At a 1906 country fair in Plymouth, eight hundred people participated in a contest to estimate the weight of a slaughtered and dressed ox. Statistician Francis Galton observed that the median guess, 1207 pounds, was accurate within 1% of the true weight of 1198 pounds.[3] This has contributed to the insight in cognitive science that a crowd's individual judgements can be modelled as a probability distribution of responses with the mean centred near the true mean of the quantity to be estimated.
True, I would (In this case) exclude the "Obvious" silly ones. However the weird thing is that with a sufficiently large sample of people the phenomena still works even if you include the stoopid guesses.
While I can sort of see why it works, it is still nevertheless fascinating that it does (And really well too!)
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