I guess so
Im calling it.....
- Thread starter Dr House
- Start date
Permabanned
- Joined
- 3 Jul 2008
- Posts
- 3,762
- Location
- My fabulous ship
I hope they come down I really do - I want to move house, build my own place, but land etc is way over priced.
Time to move to Canada.
Time to move to Canada.
Well I would argue London is a barometer for the economy. If things start to cool off/decline in London then it tends to follow elsewhere in the country as previous house price bubbles have shown. But yes London has further to fall due to rampant speculation.
maybe you were an idiot*
it isn't a very specific prediction and hasn't had an argument attached - if you'd seen issues in credit markets and predicted the issues with CDOs etc.. then that would be impressive and you'd likely be a multi millionaire. Average man in the street though making claims of 'the housing market is bound to crash now it's 'too high'' etc.. have been seen/heard in every pub since the 90s, like the stopped clock at some point some of them will be right.
(not trying to be offensive or insult you btw.. just playing devlis advocate here)
How about Vancouver? http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real...-so-where-are-all-the-cranes/article33308460/ 40% increase last year.
Toronto - http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/03/28/toronto-fastest-growing-house-prices_n_15662688.html 18% rise last year.
Both cities in the $850k-1m (£500-600k) average house price range. (London average house price is £470k)
You can get cheap stuff obviously, but like the UK it all depends on desirability and jobs. You can buy a nice house for the equivalent of £100k, but it'll be in the sticks, in an area of relatively low pay. May as well move to Scotland or Northern England.
The problem is not restricted to the UK, Australia has the same problem - http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/20...idiculous-sydney-house-prices-are_a_21903757/ Sydney and Melbourne both clocking in over 10% house price inflation (Sydney average house price is around $1m).
There are some solutions though, if governments are brave enough and willing to **** off a lot of existing homeowners of higher end homes, as evidenced by Vancouver this year. Last august the city instituted a foreign buyers tax and house prices have since dropped 18.9% year on year last month - http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/02/15/vancouver-average-house-price-january-2017_n_14775268.html
- Joined
- 13 Apr 2010
- Posts
- 18,472
- Location
- Sunny Sussex
All okay unless you're the poor non foreign sod that bought at the peak.
Yes I was an idiot for not trusting myself enough. I was between houses at the time and had several hundred k sitting in a bank. If I had the courage to risk that house money on various other investments I would have been mortgage free by now. Next time I will trust myself more.
Edit: I wasn't between houses because I felt they would fall. It was due to other circumstances.
Unfortunately therein lies the problem, it really should have been done way before things became that ridiculous.
I don't think it's a barometer. It is a catalyst in other areas but it's housing market appears to be completley segregated from the rest of the UK. Anyway, even if we did see similar value changes, a 10% drop in my house compared to the exact same house in central London is £13k vs £70k+. Those kind of figures don't translate the same with earnings, so the real impact is not the same.
Caporegime
- Joined
- 7 Apr 2008
- Posts
- 25,847
- Location
- Lorville - Hurston
Its shocking innit.
500k for a flat in zone 4...
500k for a flat in zone 4...
Am very tempted to sell my flat in zone 3... currently have nearly 70% equity in the place - could whack some serious funds into an IB account for all the fun and games brexit negotiations might bring to the markets
If London crashes, it will be a matter of weeks before the rest of the market does and as such our next recession..
I find that quite hard to believe. A crash in London isn't quite the same as a crash in the rest of the country.
it isn't so much London crashing as whatever causes London to crash... not that I buy too much into people making up narratives when it comes to market moves generally but if we end up with increased inflation and interest rate rises to compensate combined with a bit of economic disruption (job losses or pay freezes) during the brexit process and following few years then those will affect both London and elsewhere in the UK. In fact last time around people up north suffered a bit more - my brother in law went into negative equity on his flat up north.
A lot of well-off and connected people live in London or "worse", own a lot of property there. If and when London does crash, how will the government respond and would their response impact the housing market in the rest of the country. Genuine question as the government would certainly respond in a significant way to a London crash and I have doubts that their response would begin "these measures apply only to people in London." So could there be roll-on effect even if the cause was local?
The negativity alone of the news reporting a housing crisis in London will stall markets outside this area, a lack of confidence in the marketplace will happen and all these houses that look to expensive on paper ( heck there's a lot in my area alone) will not be selling. Prices fall and so on
The only positive taken from the 2007 crash is there shouldn't be as much mortgage negative equity due to the deposit requirements nowadays. So the banks should be covered or at least a bit better than 2007
In my eyes this would be the start of the next recession. Perhaps I see it wrong but confidence is what drives the economy and if that faulters like it did in 07 / 08 starting in the housing market it does not take long for people to not buy other things
Edit , I'm not talking about prices staying still or dropping a few percent but holding fast. I'm talking about a crisis in London , people not buying because prices are to high the market falling in big numbers in this area
Last edited:
Caporegime
- Joined
- 30 Jul 2013
- Posts
- 30,105
One problem for us in the south east is that people have sold property in London to BTL and investment buyers at massively inflated costs, moved out to the 'commuter belt' and it's massively pushed up prices here as well due to the amount of money the buyers have.
I nearly bought a 2 bedroom end terraced house in late 2012 in Chelmsford for 200k. That same house is now worth over 300k!
50% increase in 4 ½ years. That's not right.
I nearly bought a 2 bedroom end terraced house in late 2012 in Chelmsford for 200k. That same house is now worth over 300k!
50% increase in 4 ½ years. That's not right.
I house I have in Hertfordshire and it has seen this commuter belt effect as well. I bought it in 2007 at its then peak price. Took an equity hit between 2008 and 2011, since then it has been nothing but upwards and sharply. Its now worth a little bit short of double of what I paid for it.
On face value it seems completely unsustainable, but year on year the market proves me to be incorrect.
So how much did prices go up since posting this?