Im calling it.....

My place has more than doubled in value in the 6 years I've had it. It's ridiculous and I don't see how this helps anyone. I'm looking at downsizing and moving further out to be mortgage-free.
 
This is a very uneducated opinion, but I would have thought if there's a re-adjustment of house prices that it affects the top end of the market far more than the middle and low-end. There's a shortage of housing which creates a lot of upward pressure on houses. Even if house prices fall, people are still going to want somewhere to live. It's those who buy to make money that will scarper. If the prices start falling it would be a bad time to buy somewhere to do up and sell, but it's not going to matter much to someone who wants a roof over their heads and is confident they can keep up the payments.
 
Narj said:
My place has more than doubled in value in the 6 years I've had it. It's ridiculous and I don't see how this helps anyone. I'm looking at downsizing and moving further out to be mortgage-free.
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Mine certainly hasn't doubled in value but it's probably gone up by about £10-20K if I'm lucky since I bought it. I too, am thinking of downsizing, although not for a couple of years. I think I picked up the social expectation that I had to have the best house I could. But the truth might be that if I have somewhere that's clean, with decent internet and a parking spot, I'd probably be happy.
 
h4rm0ny said:
If the prices start falling it would be a bad time to buy somewhere to do up and sell
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House prices rarely stay down for long if they do drop out - so unless you absolutely need to sell it quickly it could be worth buying cheap and doing up to sell later.
 
Rroff said:
House prices rarely stay down for long if they do drop out - so unless you absolutely need to sell it quickly it could be worth buying cheap and doing up to sell later.
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Fair enough, then. I did say it was a very uneducated opinion. I just know that a colleague bought a place and spent a long time doing it up whilst living in it (in a sleeping bag with a camping stove for months) and just as they thought they'd added to the value handsomely, the last big crash happened and put it almost exactly where it was before they started work. Chiefly what I remember is the way he just yelled out "Chee-risssst!" at the ceiling when telling me about it.
 
h4rm0ny said:
Fair enough, then. I did say it was a very uneducated opinion. I just know that a colleague bought a place and spent a long time doing it up whilst living in it (in a sleeping bag with a camping stove for months) and just as they thought they'd added to the value handsomely, the last big crash happened and put it almost exactly where it was before they started work. Chiefly what I remember is the way he just yelled out "Chee-risssst!" at the ceiling when telling me about it.
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Give it a year or so on and they were probably back at healthy figures - not ideal if they do it semi regularly to make some extra money though heh.
 
Rroff said:
Give it a year or so on and they were probably back at healthy figures - not ideal if they do it semi regularly to make some extra money though heh.
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It probably turned out alright. He took another job about six months after that, iirc so I never heard the conclusion. I imagine they just sat it out like you say. I just remember how galling it was for him to have spent nearly a year working on it to end up back where he started (even if temporarily).

So you're of the opinion there can be no fundamental readjustment? That house price falls are always only going to be short-term dips of a year or two?
 
ci_newman said:
I'm not sure specifically where you are looking, but a quick search on Rightmove shows a lot of different properties available in the Southampton area for the budget you've listed, many properties are 3-bed with gardens etc. You aren't looking for your "forever" home, just somewhere to get started. You don't have any kids yet, move to a different area of the city later on for better schools if nescessary.

e.g. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64476812.html or http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63854942.html

£250k is more than enough for a property with two salaries in Southampton for a starter home.
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you need to know the areas mate, they are not great. My wife wants a nicer neighbourhood, like I said you can find the properties in more rundown areas, but she doesn't want that. Wants to be in nice catchment for school etc

And we've viewed the 2nd one you linked, it's had a big subsidence problem and smells really really damp, like its inside the walls. It's been up for sale for quite some time now, has quite a few problems with it. I'm not looking for immaculate, but trust me this one is a stay well clear.
 
TonyTurbo78 said:
you need to know the areas mate, they are not great. My wife wants a nicer neighbourhood, like I said you can find the properties in more rundown areas, but she doesn't want that. Wants to be in nice catchment for school etc

And we've viewed the 2nd one you linked, it's had a big subsidence problem and smells really really damp, like its inside the walls. It's been up for sale for quite some time now, has quite a few problems with it. I'm not looking for immaculate, but trust me this one is a stay well clear.
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That's fair enough, but you dont have the budget for a big house in a nice area so you are going to have to compromise. Either you stay living at home with parents and save more money, you change jobs and earn more or you compromise on the house and get something less than perfect. A house isnt a life time purchase, you can move again. Even if you have kids tomorrow, its still 5 years before you have to worry about schools.

My wife and I did this, somewhere smaller and cheaper to start then somewhere bigger with a higher salary / capital when you need schools.

I lived next to the Flowers estate near the Uni, trust me when I know what a crap area is like - it might not be white-picket fencing but there are many good areas in the city.
 
Prices are crashing the further out you go and in not so sought after areas.

Townhouse's that were originally sold for around £200K in 2006/2007 (just before the crash) one of them went up for sale few months back for £190K dropped today to £180K, they were selling last year for £165-£175K. I doubt it will sell at £180K which means prices still haven't gotten back to and maybe never will to pre-2008 levels this is in a commuter town far away from glasgow (gartcosh). So yes some people bought houses over 10 years ago and lost nearly 20% when they sold them 10 years on. Add on interest payments they likely lost 40% in real terms.

however houses in the west end of glasgow just keep on climbing and i don't see them ever going down especially in jordanhill the most expensive ones do seem to be stagnating though as not many can afford them. you would need to be prepared for the right buyer to come along and most people just cannot wait that long.

Brexit has caused uncertainty in the market since the vote last august (2017) iirc. It will continue to do so now for at least 3 years. If Scotland gets an independent vote then prices will tumble further especially in Scotland and your talking at least a decade of uncertainty as Scotland wouldn't break away overnight or even within 2 years, it would take 6-8 years minimum to sort everything out.

If prices did crash, I'd simply buy a bigger house just because it would be the cheapest possible moment to ever do so. Yes I'd lose on my current one but who cares if my upgrade is substantially cheaper overall than if I were to have done so 2 years before?
 
In respect of a market crash, for those that held out a year or two, the 2008 crash wasnt a big deal for home owners. A slight bump in the road.

Will there be a further crash though? Never say never I believe.

If you follow the likes of Peter Schiff and his youtube channel (apparently he predicted the 2008 crash.....I dont know if this is true) he firmly believes that the US economy is about to drop off a cliff due to debt management. He believes that if the FR allow interest rates to normalize then the economy will collapse or the dollar will collapse due to a heavy injection of QE.

Who knows.

I suppose if there is a collapse of the economy of a serious magnitude, the value of my houses will be the last thing that I will worry about.

Their real asset value is only important if I ever try to sell them. It would be a worry if I had borrowed on their increased value, but I havent done this.
 
If you have any outstanding mortgage repayments you should be concerned as the rates will go through the roof as well. Assuming you haven't got a ridiculously long term fixed rate.
 
The market certainly feels like it is getting lively again after being subdued a little (as it normally does around the new year). An awful lot of buying has been happening in the last month.
 
delta0 said:
The market certainly feels like it is getting lively again after being subdued a little (as it normally does around the new year). An awful lot of buying has been happening in the last month.
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4 sold up my road in the past 2 months. One neighbor had a solid offer accepted within 4 days. :eek:

Constantly getting Estate Agent cards through the door trying to persuade me to sell.
 
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