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Intel kills 10nm ?? oO

Soldato
Joined
25 Sep 2009
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Billericay, UK
Next years comet lake won't be competing without price cuts - if they try to sell a 9900k plus 2 extra cores at $500 with 180w tdp then they are totally dead in the water.

meanwhile, Zen 3 will have lower latency, higher IPC on 7nm+ next year. Those 2 extra cores won't save Intel from what's coming - total domination by AMD in games!

Intel needs to start pricing their CPUs in a tier below its core count vs AMD that's the only way they will get sales after Zen 3. That means the 10 core 10900k needs to be priced liked the 8 core 4700x, and the 8 core 10700k needs to be priced like the 6 core 4600x etc.
Currently Intel are selling everything they produce, I can't really them being to keen to cut prices unless AND shifts it's pricing to try grab some market share.
 
Soldato
Joined
6 Feb 2019
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17,839
Currently Intel are selling everything they produce, I can't really them being to keen to cut prices unless AND shifts it's pricing to try grab some market share.

Right now in very Niche scenarios Intel can beat AMD in games (certain games and certain resolutions).
After Zen 3 that won't be the case - when AMD is beating Intel is literately everything, I fail to see how they could keep shifting units at high prices.

AMD won't change it's price, they are selling over 80% of consumer desktop CPU's, Intel makes up less than 20% of consumer desktop CPU sales as of November.

Even though I hate the steam hardware survery, AMD has gained 5% market share in the last 4 months or so, so if this continues until Intel gets 7nm in 2022 - AMD could gain another 35% market share from Intel - by the time Intel has 7nm, the market could be 50/50.
 
Soldato
Joined
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London
Right now in very Niche scenarios Intel can beat AMD in games (certain games and certain resolutions).
After Zen 3 that won't be the case - when AMD is beating Intel is literately everything, I fail to see how they could keep shifting units at high prices.

AMD won't change it's price, they are selling over 80% of consumer desktop CPU's, Intel makes up less than 20% of consumer desktop CPU sales as of November.

Even though I hate the steam hardware survery, AMD has gained 5% market share in the last 4 months or so, so if this continues until Intel gets 7nm in 2022 - AMD could gain another 35% market share from Intel - by the time Intel has 7nm, the market could be 50/50.

If all those stats are correct it’s really impressive stuff from AMD... You are completely correct on pricing, you only have to look at the new HEDT 10 series to see suddenly that product line is a grand less and it’s just a refresh so what they are saying quite clearly is you overpaid for that last one by a lot :D.

Very good for consumers this is!
 
Permabanned
Joined
2 Sep 2017
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10,490
Yup, AMD has given the consumers crazy things, unthinkable if all had depended solely on intel.

If it had been only intel, we would have still stayed on 32-bit environment with up to 4 GB of main system memory.
Without AMD and its AMD64 technology, we would have waited decades for intel's itanium 64-bit architecture.

And not only that. intel pushed for equal performance between desktop and notebook environment.
Look at how Intel Core Solo T1400 @ 1.83GHz single core at 27W scores 470 points in PassMark https://www.cpubenchmark.net/cpu.php?cpu=Intel+Core+Solo+T1400+@+1.83GHz&id=1632
While Pentium 4 3.60GHz single core with HT enabled at 115W scores 486 points in the same Passmark https://www.cpubenchmark.net/cpu.php?cpu=Intel+Pentium+4+3.60GHz&id=1079

Crazy stuff.
 
Man of Honour
Joined
13 Oct 2006
Posts
91,658
He called the depth of their 10nm woes long before most of us could believe just how bad it was going to be.

He has called woes on everything Intel have done for awhile so he was bound to get it (completely) right eventually :s something I've find interesting is that Intel liaisons, etc. have been even telling their partners incorrect/misleading information which seems to have been tutored for them to say from higher up :s company needs top to bottom restructuring by the sound of it.
 
Soldato
Joined
18 Oct 2002
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14,331
Location
West Midlands
It's pretty clear that Intel have known for a long time that 10nm wasn't going to be around when they said it would, but admitting as much would have killed investment and caused a huge reversal from an investors point-of-view, they chose to mitigate by lying/fibbing and drip feeding the bad news, alongside some terrible examples of 10nm parts.
 
Man of Honour
Joined
13 Oct 2006
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91,658
It's pretty clear that Intel have known for a long time that 10nm wasn't going to be around when they said it would, but admitting as much would have killed investment and caused a huge reversal from an investors point-of-view, they chose to mitigate by lying/fibbing and drip feeding the bad news, alongside some terrible examples of 10nm parts.

I don't think it is as simple as a conscious decision like that - I could be wrong but from what I can make out there has been a lot of people within Intel just telling people (above and below them) what they think they want to hear to get them to go away, etc. and those just living it up doing as little work as possible at certain levels within the company, etc. some people at Intel have been telling other partners, etc. stuff is going ahead on schedule or on a schedule genuinely believing it to be the case.

(There is some stuff on the various shares/investor forums, etc. related to this and the departure of certain individuals, etc. including supposed leaks by people who've been laid off previously not related to this news).
 
Soldato
Joined
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14,331
Location
West Midlands
I don't think it is as simple as a conscious decision like that - I could be wrong but from what I can make out there has been a lot of people within Intel just telling people (above and below them) what they think they want to hear to get them to go away, etc. and those just living it up doing as little work as possible at certain levels within the company, etc. some people at Intel have been telling other partners, etc. stuff is going ahead on schedule or on a schedule genuinely believing it to be the case.

When you run a huge PLC (or equivalent), you know exactly what is going on to protect your public image, and major shareholders. Lets not forget, it wouldn't have just harmed Intel now, it would have impacted the value of their largest partners like HP, Dell, Lenovo etc. and recovering from that is a long, hard slog.

Assessing the impact and ensuring that the fallout is minimised, is what people are paid a great deal of money for, and the sort of company that Intel is you can be they pay a lot of these people and they are going to be great at it.
 
Man of Honour
Joined
13 Oct 2006
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91,658
When you run a huge PLC (or equivalent), you know exactly what is going on to protect your public image

Part of the reason some senior people were "let go" from Intel was because they didn't (apparently) know what was going on. The whole thing is a mess internally.
 
Man of Honour
Joined
13 Oct 2006
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91,658
Isn't that known as a fall guy (or persons) ;)

"Yes, we've fired the people responsible" said every corporation ever.

There is that :D but if you read some of the accounts accompanying those events it gets more murky. I think people are reading too much in intent versus incompetence.
 
Soldato
Joined
26 Oct 2013
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Scotland
As they released their latest quarterly report, Intel have announced that 10nm production is ahead of expectations. I can't figure out if their expectations just dropped to the floor or if they forgot they should probably have been off 10nm and onto 7nm entirely by now if all went as expected.
 
Soldato
Joined
6 Feb 2019
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17,839
As they released their latest quarterly report, Intel have announced that 10nm production is ahead of expectations. I can't figure out if their expectations just dropped to the floor or if they forgot they should probably have been off 10nm and onto 7nm entirely by now if all went as expected.

translation: We dropped our expectations so low that now we are ahead of them
 
Associate
Joined
12 Jul 2016
Posts
323
Currently Intel are selling everything they produce, I can't really them being to keen to cut prices unless AND shifts it's pricing to try grab some market share.

This is not true. Where's your evidence? Look at the Euro Mindfactory results or Amazon.com best sellers lists. Intel can barely get a couple processors in the top 10 of desktop CPU sales. AMD currently dominating hard.
 
Associate
Joined
27 Apr 2007
Posts
965
This is not true. Where's your evidence? Look at the Euro Mindfactory results or Amazon.com best sellers lists. Intel can barely get a couple processors in the top 10 of desktop CPU sales. AMD currently dominating hard.
They are supply constrained and recently wrote an open letter to the OEMs apologising.
Retail chips are small fry as OEM, laptop and data centre is where the money is; they announced record profits this week.
 
Soldato
Joined
6 Feb 2019
Posts
17,839
This is not true. Where's your evidence? Look at the Euro Mindfactory results or Amazon.com best sellers lists. Intel can barely get a couple processors in the top 10 of desktop CPU sales. AMD currently dominating hard.

actually the statement can easily be true while AMD sells the top 12 CPUs on Amazon.

the answer is that Intel isn't producing many chips, that's why they can sell everything they make.

you know Ferrari also sells everything they make, but they only make a few hundred cars per year
 
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Soldato
Joined
15 Jun 2005
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2,751
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Edinburgh
Retail CPUs are only bought by enthusiasts who represents a very small sector of the market. Intel still has 70-80% of the OEM and system integrator market (which is huge) and can’t keep up with demand. It will take time and increased fabrication capacity to dethrone Intel. Can that be done before Intel have a true next gen product? Doubtful.
 
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