ISIL, ISIS, Daesh discussion thread.

I think this was a plausible position two years ago; now, I think that Syria is doomed to a long and bloody civil war and propping up Assad is neither a credible nor desirable outcome. Unfortunately there are no reasonable alternatives, either. Which is why I think that we should simply stay out of Syria altogether until we have a plan that makes sense.



I have heard that Assad offered the US a deal, via the Russians, that would have involved him standing down and going into exile and the regime continuing with some accommodations and assurances three years ago. The US apparently turned this deal down because, at the time, they believed they could easily push Assad out (and had the UK joined a US-led force at that time this would probably have happened for better or worse). This was, I think, the key mistake in foreign involvement. A negotiated stand down of this type would have been the best possible outcome for the civil war, but the window of opportunity is long since passed.

I thought Hillary Benn's speech in the second commons vote on military action in Syria (this time backing the opposite side to the first vote) was the clearest example of the dire thinking over Syria. They're mean! We must do something! In contrast to the battle against ISIS in Iraq where we have clear allies (the Iraqi government), clear targets (ISIS), and a clear end aim (the restoration of Iraqi territorial sovereignty); any involvement in Syria is directionless rubbish since we have none of these things. We're effectively backing Assad by proxy whilst condemning Russia for backing him in fact, and deriding him and his regime in public.

Agreed, he is not a desired outcome, but IMO the lesser evil of all the other outcomes. Allowing him to "win" and then trying to force his hand back towards reform and eventually leaving his position in favour of a more open democracy could still be achieved IMO, even though it goes against much of what the rebels have wanted almost since the beginning.

Yes there would need to be a lot of forgiveness on both sides, but this has happened in the past, both in places like Rwanda and to a lesser extent N. Ireland. In theory the 2012 constitution change could be used as is, but it would all depend on what Assad (and leaders of other factions) were promised - keep promising death and nothing will ever happen.

I still think the biggest hurdles to this however are the US and to a slightly lesser extent Russia. Both have basically been causing problems from the start - again, no they aren't the cause, but as you point out they certainly haven't helped the situation. From blocking possible deals to disallowing Iran for the longest time. I don't think anyone has really been trying to find a solution to the war, rather trying to make sure their side win. Until we change tack nothing will change.
 
Well to be fair to the FSA (do they even still exist?), it wasn't them - rather a group of Islamists that are causing the problem.

That said I think that cartoon about "which Syrian rebel do we arm" is still pretty apt unfortunately.
 
"Russia, which backs the government of President Bashar al-Assad, says it will veto a French-drafted resolution to send UN officials to monitor the evacuations in Aleppo."

Why? Why would they do that unless they knew they were up to no good and didn't want an independent 3rd party to find out? Hmm?
 
Wonder where this is all going to head - looks like Russia, Turkey and Iran are in talks but - Iran is pretty set on domination of the Northern half of Syria which won't go down well with Russia/Assad, Turkey seems to want to give the Kurds a good kicking and I'm not sure how they view Iran having influence in that area as they tend not to get on so well while Russia and Turkey seem to be trying to keep the other sweet for various reasons - none the least Russia values access to the Bosphorus.
 
"Russia, which backs the government of President Bashar al-Assad, says it will veto a French-drafted resolution to send UN officials to monitor the evacuations in Aleppo."

Why? Why would they do that unless they knew they were up to no good and didn't want an independent 3rd party to find out? Hmm?

Supplying the rebels is the goal of the West, so of course they would do this. A quicker end to the war is vastly superior to what the US or more aptly Obama wanted in keeping the war at stalemate.

And it's obvious they're up to no good, but honestly I'd blame Assad and his militias more for the state of warfare there.
 
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Wonder where this is all going to head - looks like Russia, Turkey and Iran are in talks but - Iran is pretty set on domination of the Northern half of Syria which won't go down well with Russia/Assad, Turkey seems to want to give the Kurds a good kicking and I'm not sure how they view Iran having influence in that area as they tend not to get on so well while Russia and Turkey seem to be trying to keep the other sweet for various reasons - none the least Russia values access to the Bosphorus.

Russia would much prefer its ally - iran to have influence rather than Saudi arabia
 
"Russia, which backs the government of President Bashar al-Assad, says it will veto a French-drafted resolution to send UN officials to monitor the evacuations in Aleppo."

Why? Why would they do that unless they knew they were up to no good and didn't want an independent 3rd party to find out? Hmm?

While the intention may look noble after all the other bumff that has been going on over the last few years you can forgive Russia for potentially having questions over the intentions of a French drafted resolution.

Personally I don't trust eithers intentions in this. A bad place to be but none of the major countries have instilled confidence over the last few years that their foreign policy and draft resolutions are not just one upmanship.
 
Russia had enough when yet another middle east country had its leadership removed by the USA - Assad is a friend of Russia so that was the line
 
Allowing him to "win" and then trying to force his hand back towards reform and eventually leaving his position in favour of a more open democracy could still be achieved IMO, even though it goes against much of what the rebels have wanted almost since the beginning.

Just a note, in the wake of the western cries for his head Assad did instigate further electoral reform in 2014 (though it's unknown if it had been planned since 2010 or not).

Prior to 2014 the people of syria elected a government (in this case a coalition lead by the Baath party) every four years and then the government elected it's own leader (this had been Assad since 2000 as he led the largest governmental party) every 7 years.

In 2014 this was changed and the people were allowed to directly elect the president themselves independently of electing the government.

This is actually a MORE open democracy than we have in the UK! (where we elect the government and the majority party's leader becomes our prime minister).
 
Just a note, in the wake of the western cries for his head Assad did instigate further electoral reform in 2014 (though it's unknown if it had been planned since 2010 or not).

Prior to 2014 the people of syria elected a government (in this case a coalition lead by the Baath party) every four years and then the government elected it's own leader (this had been Assad since 2000 as he led the largest governmental party) every 7 years.

In 2014 this was changed and the people were allowed to directly elect the president themselves independently of electing the government.

This is actually a MORE open democracy than we have in the UK! (where we elect the government and the majority party's leader becomes our prime minister).

So much MORE democracy, yet 166th out of 167 on the democracy index

http://www.yabiladi.com/img/content/EIU-Democracy-Index-2015.pdf
 

Yeah the total score is an average of the individual scores and as 3/5 of them are missing the total is much lower than it should be, Syria should be in the top 100 easy.

IMO they shouldn't provide fake listings if they don't have the data to create one as it's just bad/shoddy practice, they should just be honest and say "N/A insufficient data" or something.
 
iran-iraq-syria-pipeline.jpg
 
about as flawed as the uk.....

By definition, the UK is a full democracy, Syria is Authoritarian. If your own personal perception differs then so be it, I'm going to go with the reputable Economist analysis though.

Yeah the total score is an average of the individual scores and as 3/5 of them are missing the total is much lower than it should be, Syria should be in the top 100 easy.

IMO they shouldn't provide fake listings if they don't have the data to create one as it's just bad/shoddy practice, they should just be honest and say "N/A insufficient data" or something.

Which would still put it in the Authoritarian/Hybrid Regime category.
 
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