I was just about to comment about exactly the same thing
Dannyjo - Im also a bit confused about your comment "its also a stupid gamble......." - Surely at the end of the day, IF this was the case it would hurt JB MORE in quali than it would in the race (amongst the top ten at least) as there is such small amount of time between the cars these days, and yet JB is on the front row (Im saying this with the thought that over a single lap there is less likely things will go wrong for everyone else, whereas with however many laps lots of other factors can come into play).
IF JB gets a good get away, and can keep consistant lap times (and no-one barges off part of his car in the first corner) JB has surely got a decent chance of winning rain or sun.....also consider that seemingly comparative to a lot of the grid the McLaren has a really decent race pace relative to quali positions (ie both McLarens are usually able to make places up during the race
I wouldnt say he is favourite by any chance but he has a pretty decent chance imo