Lottery Odds

div0 said:
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I appreciate this, and I fully understand it — there was no need for the massive explanation.

What I was saying was that I could understand (read empathise) with someone who confused doubling their odds of winning with halving their chance of losing because suddenly the number 14 million halved to 7 million.

Now I know this is wrong, you know this is wrong but some people don't know this is wrong.

The point I was addressing was why you were so incredulous that some people (clearly not as intelligent as yourself) might not understand the above.

You don't seem to be able to grasp the concept that because something is simple to you, other people might not understand it (please note that I am not one of those people).
 
Panzerbjorn.. it's the same story of "guy who thinks he is more intelligent, does not have the intelligence to recognise others think differently". It's arrogance and ignorance. The two anti-intelligence traits. :p
 
div0 said:
But why is that confusing? The 14 million halves, because the chances of winning have now been doubled.

The only 'confusing' thing here is the difference between a big CHANGE and a big CHANCE.

If you buy 256 tickets then you will see a big CHANGE in your odds of winning. Instead of a 1 in 14 million CHANCE, you now have a 1 in 54,687 CHANCE.

But this really is a big CHANGE in your odds.

Your CHANCE of winning was 0.000007% and it has now CHANGED a lot (increased by 256 times), but the important thing is that now your CHANCE of winning is still only 0.0018%.

Your CHANCES of winning with 256 tickets ARE 'massively' INCREASED, compared to buying just 1 ticket. The problem is that even with that 'massive' increase in your chances, you still only have a very small CHANCE.

Despite my earlier criticism of him, Krotoon does a reasonable job of trying to explain this in his previous few posts.
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Whoooosh.

Re-read his post, you've mis-understood what he is saying, again.
 
Panzerbjorn said:
buying the second ticket takes your odds from 1/14million to 1/7million.

They will see 14million suddenly half to 7million.

Now I appreciate this is incorrect
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I think you have been misinterpreted because you did not specify you had changed to discussing the chances of losing in the second paragraph. I was certainly a bit confused when I read your post.
 
Panzerbjorn said:
The point I was addressing was why you were so incredulous that some people (clearly not as intelligent as yourself) might not understand the above.

You don't seem to be able to grasp the concept that because something is simple to you, other people might not understand it (please note that I am not one of those people).
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I'm only surprised, because of the amount of people here who appear to struggle with something which isn't complex. We're only talking about fractions and simple division here. And lets face it, this isn't a teletubbies forum.

If the discussion had actually gone along with the question that the OP had asked, then I could have understood why more people may have had problems. But do you really think that people should not know that 2/14,000,000 is the same as 1/7,000,000? Because that's what some people seem to be debating.
 
Dj_Jestar said:
Panzerbjorn.. it's the same story of "guy who thinks he is more intelligent, does not have the intelligence to recognise others think differently". It's arrogance and ignorance. The two anti-intelligence traits. :p
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Whether or not you think it makes me arrogant/ignorant/less intelligent; I still feel that someone would have to be pretty "special" to think that buying 2 tickets halved their chance of losing. :p
 
Dj_Jestar said:
Panzerbjorn.. it's the same story of "guy who thinks he is more intelligent, does not have the intelligence to recognise others think differently". It's arrogance and ignorance. The two anti-intelligence traits. :p
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Which is why I asked, why is it confusing?

I know that Panzer understands what I've said, I just don't get why he thinks some people would be confused.

Don't get me wrong, I struggled with probabilities and I've no problem with others struggling with things. But there are people debating some very basic things, like simple fractions and division and then still trying to debate them even when people have explained it to them.
 
Elixir said:
I think you have been misinterpreted because you did not specify you had changed to discussing the chances of losing in the second paragraph. I was certainly a bit confused when I read your post.
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My post was in response to div0's post #104 where he said:

div0 said:
No-one thinks that it would half your odds of losing. That would be absurd and would actually mean that buying a 2nd ticket gives you a greater than 50% chance of winning. Clearly no-one thinks that is true.
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So I thought it would make sense, but I appreciate it could be misinterpreted in isolation.

div0 said:
I'm only surprised, because of the amount of people here who appear to struggle with something which isn't complex. We're only talking about fractions and simple division here. And lets face it, this isn't a teletubbies forum.
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There's a difference between being surprised at others' lack of understanding and a flat-out refusal to accept that other people might get things wrong, teletubbies or not. :p

"No-one thinks that"... "That would be absurd"... "Clearly no-one thinks that is true"...

Unfortunately, as wrong as they might be, it is possible to make the mistake.

*Ninja*

I know that Panzer understands what I've said, I just don't get why he thinks some people would be confused.
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Because people have confused themselves in this thread and (as harsh as it might sound) some people are that stupid!
 
Who are you all even arguing against? Since when has anyone in this thread said that they think they are increasing their chance significantly by buying two tickets?? :confused:
 
Basher said:
You have.

You thought he didn't understand, he does.
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No I didn't. I understood that he understood, I was just trying to clarify where I thought other people were being confused.

Basher said:
He is pointing out that he can understand why some people wouldn't understand - which is clear.
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Indeed it is clear that he understands that, which is why I was hoping he could help clarify their confusion.

I guess it's you who didn't understand.
 
div0 said:
No I didn't. I understood that he understood, I was just trying to clarify where I thought other people were being confused.



Indeed it is clear that he understands that, which is why I was hoping he could help clarify their confusion.

I guess it's you who didn't understand.
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No, I understand.

The point is that some people do not understand. You explaining how 'easy it is' does not change that. Some people are stupid.
 
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