Lottery Odds

Greebo said:
Another point to bring home about how unlikely you will ever win the lottery is as follows.

The odds of winning are approx 1 in 14 million.

There are less than 56 million adults in the uk.

Your odds of winning are the same as the next person to knock on your front door will be the Stig, David Cameron, Michael Caine or Ewan Mcgregor. You think that is likely?

Don't forget it has to be the next person that knocks. If your neighbour knocks first and then later today David Cameron knocks it doesn't count.

If fact, statistically, as a man, you have more chance of dating a top model than you do of winning the lottery in your lifetime.
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But you forgot to mention, models aren't very good at Maths!
 
Greebo said:
Another point to bring home about how unlikely you will ever win the lottery is as follows.

The odds of winning are approx 1 in 14 million.

There are less than 56 million adults in the uk.

Your odds of winning are the same as the next person to knock on your front door will be the Stig, David Cameron, Michael Caine or Ewan Mcgregor. You think that is likely?

Don't forget it has to be the next person that knocks. If your neighbour knocks first and then later today David Cameron knocks it doesn't count.

If fact, statistically, as a man, you have more chance of dating a top model than you do of winning the lottery in your lifetime.
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Oh dear :eek: :(

In the lottery there is the same chance of a 1 being drawn, as there is for a 2, or a 12, or any other ball. Which results in an equal chance of any of the 14million combinations being drawn.

In your example there is a massively higher chance that my neighbour will knock on my door, than there is of someone 2 streets away knocking and definitely more chance than someone from England knocking on it.

How do people not get basic probablity?
 
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div0 said:
Oh dear :eek: :(

In the lottery there is the same chance of a 1 being drawn, as there is for a 2, or a 12, or any other ball. Which results in an equal chance of any of the 14million combinations being drawn.

In your example there is a massively higher chance that my neighbour will knock on my door, than there is of someone 2 streets away knocking and definitely more chance than someone from England knocking on it.

How do people not get basic probablity?
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Meh, was just trying to show how unlikely it was that you will win the lottery. I should have said "assuming there is an equal chance of anybody in the uk knocking on your door"...........

kd
 
krooton said:
This.

If you reverse the numbers it's easier to see.

If you have 1 ticket, you have a 13,999,999 in 14,000,000 chance of losing.
If you have 2 tickets, you have a 13,999,998 in 14,000,000 chance of losing.

Doubling the number of tickets does not halve the odds.

Each additional unique ticket increases your percentile chance of winning by 1/14,000,000 percent.
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This is what I had in my mind before I posted, but I guess I messed that up. I haven't been to sleep yet, so that's my excuse. :p
 
simulatorman said:
It appears that not many did. :D
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Clearly the people that disagree are looking at it from the different angle of "Doubling your percentage chance of winning does not halve your percentage chance of losing.", which is how most normal people would perceive the change of 2 in 14 million to 1 in 7 million.
 
Greebo said:
Another point to bring home about how unlikely you will ever win the lottery is as follows.

The odds of winning are approx 1 in 14 million.

There are less than 56 million adults in the uk.

Your odds of winning are the same as the next person to knock on your front door will be the Stig, David Cameron, Michael Caine or Ewan Mcgregor. You think that is likely?

Don't forget it has to be the next person that knocks. If your neighbour knocks first and then later today David Cameron knocks it doesn't count.

If fact, statistically, as a man, you have more chance of dating a top model than you do of winning the lottery in your lifetime.
Click to expand...
What if person A is related to David Cameron - or even lives in the same house-hold? - should Samantha Cameron go out & buy lottery tickets for a near 100% chance of winning?.

A better point is, your are more likely to get killed in a car crash on the way to pick up the lottery tickets than you are to win it.
 
krooton said:
This.

If you reverse the numbers it's easier to see.

If you have 1 ticket, you have a 13,999,999 in 14,000,000 chance of losing.
If you have 2 tickets, you have a 13,999,998 in 14,000,000 chance of losing.

Doubling the number of tickets does not halve the odds.

Each additional unique ticket increases your percentile chance of winning by 1/14,000,000 percent.
Click to expand...

The probability of winning + the probability of losing = 1 always correct? because there are only 2 options, win or lose.

2 tickets, yes you have 13,999,998 / 14,000,00 chance of you losing.

Lets half these numbers

6,999,999 / 7,000,000

OH ****

1 / 7,000,000 + the above = 1.

-.- seriously, people don't understand the concept of probability.
 
Mason- said:
-.- seriously, people don't understand the concept of probability.
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Exactly, so when you change 2 in 14 million to 1 in 7 million, they believe that they are suddenly much more likely to win than they actually are.

Yes, they have double their original chance to win, but they have not halved their original chance to lose.
 
The Jackpot - 6 Numbers (Typical prize: £2 million)
6 numbers are drawn at random from the set of integers between 1 and 49, which means there are 49!/(6!*(49-6)!) combinations of numbers (the draw order doesn't matter). The means that the jackpot chance is 1 in 13,983,816 or approximately 1 in 14 million.

5 Numbers + Bonus Number (Typical prize: £100,000)
You are still matching 6 numbers from the 1 to 49 set as above, but you can now do it in 6 different ways (by dropping each of the main numbers in turn), therefore the chance is 1 in 13,983,816/6, which works out as 1 in 2,330,636.

5 Numbers (Typical prize: £1,500)
This is 42 times more likely than getting 5 numbers + the bonus number because, after the first six balls are drawn, there are 43 balls left and you can match 42 of these 43 balls without matching the bonus number. Therefore the chance is 1 in 2,330,636/42, which evaluates to 1 in 55,491.33333.

4 Numbers (Typical prize: £65)
Firstly, let's take the case of the first 4 of your numbers matching and the last 2 not matching. In this single case (where each set of chances relies on the previous event occurring):

Chance that your 1st number matches a winning number is 1 in 49/6.
Chance that your 2nd number matches a winning number is 1 in 48/5.
Chance that your 3rd number matches a winning number is 1 in 47/4.
Chance that your 4th number matches a winning number is 1 in 46/3.
Chance that your 5th number doesn't match a winning number is 1 in 45/(45-2) [because there are still 2 unmatched winning numbers].
Chance that your 6th number doesn't match a winning number is 1 in 44/(44-2) [yes, still 2 unmatched winning numbers].

Now you need to accumulate all those chances by multiplying them together:
1 in (49/6)*(48/5)*(47/4)*(46/3)*(45/43)*(44/42) which is 1 in 15486.953. Now this is the chance for that single case occurring, but there are 15 combinations of matching 4 from 6 [6!/(4!*(6-4)!)], so you divide the answer by 15 to get 1 in 15486.953/15 or 1 in 1032.4.

3 Numbers (Constant prize: £10)
Follow exactly the same scheme as the 4 match above to get these figures:
1 in (49/6)*(48/5)*(47/4)*(46/43)*(45/42)*(44/41) (which is 1 in 1133.119) for a single case. There are 20 combinations of 3 from 6 [6!/(3!*(6-3)!], so the chance of a 3 match is 1 in 1133.119/20 or 1 in 56.7.

The chance of you winning any of the above prizes is approximately 54 to 1 - it is reckoned an average of one million people per draw will win a prize.
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