Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)

beh said:
Aye, you do need to be discerning. Ideally a bare minimum of runners with clear favourites and low qualifying losses. You see some people chasing these offers or worse (2nd to SP) in some very unlikely races.
Does the opportunity to minimise variance readily exist?
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If the refund is for horse coming second a £25 bet can be worth it if the qualifying losses are <£2. If your odds are on average 8.0 then your horse will come second (massive assumption here) around 12.5% of the time (1 in 8). If you lose £2 per time but when you do with you retain £20 of the £25 SNR bet then you will on average only make 50p per race. Keep your qualifying losses to £1 then you make an average of £1.50 per race. Keep your qualifying losses to £0.50 and you make an average of £2 per race.

Note that if the refund is for horse coming second to the SP (favourite) a £25 bet can be worth it if the qualifying losses are very low. Very low chance of hitting the free bet.

In both cases obvioiusly don't bother with horses with high odds as the chance of them coming 2nd is very low. Back a horse at odds of 5.0 and it has a ~20% chance of coming second.

Forgive me if my maths is off. Long day!

A very important thing to remember is I have now lost many a Saturday afternoon matched betting on horse races and hardly ever manage to hit a refund. You need to back a horse 5 mins before the race when you see the odds dropping on the exchange, as bookmakers are slow to update their odds.
 
amigafan2003 said:
I know of a few who have done irt and it does work, but it takes some balls and a massive bank - one "lost" £10k over 6 months from his balance - that "variance" doesn't happen with matched betting ofc - he grinded through it and came out ok in the end, but it's nerve racking.
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he's either extremely unlucky or he's doing something very wrong to get that sort of downswing... it isn't poker... the +EV from these bonuses is significant
 
amigafan2003 said:
I know of a few who have done irt and it does work, but it takes some balls and a massive bank - one "lost" £10k over 6 months from his balance - that "variance" doesn't happen with matched betting ofc - he grinded through it and came out ok in the end, but it's nerve racking.
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I know of people that hammer the ACCA refund offers to the point where you'd imagine the variance would be suitably small, but on doing the calculations not laying would still be quite risky. Aye, faith and a big bank.

I'm just wary of people getting sucked in to taking "value" when it's quite easy to get the wrong idea. It isn't the answer for most people.
OpenToSuggestions said:
A very important thing to remember is I have now lost many a Saturday afternoon matched betting on horse races and hardly ever manage to hit a refund.
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Were you combining the offers from different bookies? If so, quite unlucky given that you seem to have the right approach.

Would agree, people often fail to appreciate the time spent chasing some very marginal offers. A part time Saturday job might be more profitable if that was someones primary concern.
OpenToSuggestions said:
This is all about long term gains :).
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How long do you expect it to last?
 
beh said:
Were you combining the offers from different bookies? If so, quite unlucky given that you seem to have the right approach.

Would agree, people often fail to appreciate the time spent chasing some very marginal offers. A part time Saturday job might be more profitable if that was someones primary concern.
How long do you expect it to last?
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I have just been unlucky. The best wins seem to come from matched bets on horses, where I make a small qualifying loss, the horse goes onto win but the odds have increased and the Bookmaker I backed with has Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG).

I have no idea how long I can expect it to last. So far no bookmakers are restricted but it really is anyone's guess.
I play plenty of Casino games to look like a mug. Just do small bets on games with a small house edge to make myself look like a general idiot. Afaik the Bookies just want to get you into the Casino as that is where the big money is.
 
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Simon said:
Real not to score ?
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Ended up putting it on 2-1 just after Real scored their first. Gutted it didn't come in (for £350!) :( But used my 2 £5 free bets from PP on match going to penalties and staying 1-0. Ended up £55 up from it going to penalties so worked out in the end.

Month end profit £630 assuming I do nothing else tonight.
 
Bet365 £200 Welcome Bonus ,i deposited £200 please can i have some guidance on how to sort this offer out.I want to give it my full attention today.I've got 400 :Din bet365 and 270 in betfair but i can add more if needed up to 1k .Am i correct in thinking to place a £400 pound bet and lay it off to meet the wagering ? hoping it loses at the book? any help will result in free Beer !
 
Yep, pretty much exactly that, but you're going to need some serious bank to lay it off properly, or take chunks out of it at a time. Also, make sure Betfair / SMarkets has the liquidity to match the bet or it won't go through.

EDIT: Way to give yourself away Gavin :p
 
The BF sportsbook £25 on Euro winner and get £5 free bet each game they win

Am I asking for trouble laying the £25 sportsbook bet off on BF exchange?

If so I will just take a gamble on it as an advantage play, cant be bothered setting another exchange account up
 
Rotty said:
The BF sportsbook £25 on Euro winner and get £5 free bet each game they win

Am I asking for trouble laying the £25 sportsbook bet off on BF exchange?

If so I will just take a gamble on it as an advantage play, cant be bothered setting another exchange account up
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Use smarkets, never back and lay on the same event on betfair, just asking to be banned.
 
Well it is 2% vs 5% :p Markets are less limited though.

I have given up on this for a bit, might do some more for Euros - some of the goals scored offers look promising. I do regular bets too much
 
Not sure who to put the outright winner or top goalscorer bets on to get the most out of these. With a good choice you're looking at £25 free bets every match win and another £25 for each match a goal is scored in.

After poker and a couple of other things last night I topped £670 profit for the month. That includes the Bet365 sign up and mobile offer but very happy. Here's to a good June :D
 
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Rotty said:
The BF sportsbook £25 on Euro winner and get £5 free bet each game they win

Am I asking for trouble laying the £25 sportsbook bet off on BF exchange?

If so I will just take a gamble on it as an advantage play, cant be bothered setting another exchange account up
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Germany for me 5.0 on betfair, laid on smarkets @ 5.6 so qualifying loss of £3 odd.
 
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