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Hence the word EXPECTING. Over time I would EXPECT the profit to tend towards that, that might take 100 years but that is the expectation. It isn't gamblers fallacy, it is Maths.
Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)
- Thread starter knowlton
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Hence the word EXPECTING. Over time I would EXPECT the profit to tend towards that, that might take 100 years but that is the expectation. It isn't gamblers fallacy, it is Maths.
No, expecting a downswing because you're £1k above EV isn't "maths" it is literally gamblers fallacy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
your EV from bets going forwards is unchanged by your past winnings or losses - there is no expectation of a "downswing" because you've won a bit, you're talking about independent events
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EXPECTING, do you understand expected value?
Yes thanks, I'd suggest reading the previous link. What you've stated is a fallacy - do you not understand these are independent events?
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It's not a fallacy, I understand how nothing is guaranteed, this month I happened to be down £2K and then I hit a big win. I realise I could have not made any money at all over the last 1000 offers.
I don't think anything will happen but the EV is in your favour so over time you would EXPECT to make a profit. That is the point I am making. But you are very poor at understanding things dowie
It's not a fallacy, I understand how nothing is guaranteed, this month I happened to be down £2K and then I hit a big win. I realise I could have not made any money at all over the last 1000 offers.
I don't think anything will happen but the EV is in your favour so over time you would EXPECT to make a profit. That is the point I am making. But you are very poor at understanding things dowie
yes if the EV is in your favour then you'll expect to make a profit over time - that isn't what I was getting at - it was your statement that you're "expecting" a downswing that is a fallacy and it seemed to illustrate a confusion you had about expected value
lets try a simple example - suppose you play a game with an opponent where you toss a fair coin and win say £10 when you get heads and lose £10 when you get tails - your EV is zero...
suppose now that you're up 1k, well you're up 1k above EV (your EV at the start) just as you are with your casino games...
now lets take the statement "I'm now expecting something of a downswing again as I'm ~£1K above EV." - well that is reliant upon a fallacy... each coin toss is independent your expectation for each individual coin toss is unchanged and the past coin tosses have no effect on future coin tosses... your expectation at this point in a 0EV game is to stay at 1k - for you to expect something of a downswing you'd need the coin tosses to not be independent, you'd need some magical intervention.... it is a commonly held but incorrect belief and so it is worth pointing out when it occurs in a thread like this
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This is the last time I respond to you on this.
You would EXPECT (there's that word again), for your profit in the long run to closely match that of the EV. The reason I said I might expect a downswing is the only way for that event to occur is: win smaller amounts and the EV might eventually catch up, or lose amounts and meet the EV that way. None of this is guaranteed of course, hence the EXPECTED.
The fallacy would be if I said "I've lost 50 offers in a row, I must win the next one". I was saying I would EXPECT over time to make a profit. You've as usual, got the wrong end of the stick and gone on and on. What I said was perfectly clear and understandable.
I bid you good day.
(Sorry to other people reading the thread, I assumed this was something that would have been simple to point out with a post or at worst just a follow up with a link to the wikipedia article I didn't expect to have multiple replies to deal with)
I understand what expected value is thanks and what you are describing is still a fallacy, there is no magical force to bring a series of events back into line with your EV at the start - in order for that to occur the probability of those events given the previous events would need to change and they wouldn't therefore be independent.
It is your claim that because you're above EV then you're expecting a downswing that is the fallacy. I've not said anything about winning the next one, I've not mentioned anything about guarantees and nor have I objected to you expecting to make a profit over time by taking +EV bets - so I'm not sure why you're throwing all that into the mix, likewise you've decided to capitalise "EXPECT" yet again as though I'd not noticed the word before - none of this is helpful when engaging in discussion online.
I've highlighted in bold the further use of this sort of fallacy... it is again worth highlighting in a thread like this as it is a common fallacy that really ought to be challenged when it appears. The point you're missing is simply that these are independent events, if you're lucky enough to be above EV at the moment there isn't any reason to suppose that you should expect to, over time, come back in line with what your EV was at the start - see again the simple example of the coins.. if you're up 1k there then your expectation (given you're already up 1k) is simply to stay there... there is no magical power that will change the 0EV of each individual coin toss in order to bring you back down to your original EV at the start of 0... in fact you've got the same chance at that point of wining a further 1k as you have of coming back to your original EV.
I'd suggest thinking about it a bit more and reading the wikipedia article I linked to previously... this isn't some political discussion and there should't be any need to get angry or hostile over this but it is something that is worth understanding if you're going to be gambling/risking your money.
I understand what expected value is thanks and what you are describing is still a fallacy, there is no magical force to bring a series of events back into line with your EV at the start - in order for that to occur the probability of those events given the previous events would need to change and they wouldn't therefore be independent.
It is your claim that because you're above EV then you're expecting a downswing that is the fallacy. I've not said anything about winning the next one, I've not mentioned anything about guarantees and nor have I objected to you expecting to make a profit over time by taking +EV bets - so I'm not sure why you're throwing all that into the mix, likewise you've decided to capitalise "EXPECT" yet again as though I'd not noticed the word before - none of this is helpful when engaging in discussion online.
I've highlighted in bold the further use of this sort of fallacy... it is again worth highlighting in a thread like this as it is a common fallacy that really ought to be challenged when it appears. The point you're missing is simply that these are independent events, if you're lucky enough to be above EV at the moment there isn't any reason to suppose that you should expect to, over time, come back in line with what your EV was at the start - see again the simple example of the coins.. if you're up 1k there then your expectation (given you're already up 1k) is simply to stay there... there is no magical power that will change the 0EV of each individual coin toss in order to bring you back down to your original EV at the start of 0... in fact you've got the same chance at that point of wining a further 1k as you have of coming back to your original EV.
I'd suggest thinking about it a bit more and reading the wikipedia article I linked to previously... this isn't some political discussion and there should't be any need to get angry or hostile over this but it is something that is worth understanding if you're going to be gambling/risking your money.
yet you chose to throw in two posts that contribute nothing
Here's a third.
The issue I had with is is that the bookies give you the offer once per account on signup, so once you bet everywhere what do you do?
Also even then it seemed difficult to get right even using one of those calculator sites, as often odds had changed when I went to bet to less favourable odds.
Also even then it seemed difficult to get right even using one of those calculator sites, as often odds had changed when I went to bet to less favourable odds.
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You get reloads. Something like Oddsmonkey will list them, daily.
Some people sign up for multiple accounts (and make use of VPNs) - though this will get you banned quite quickly.
You can teach a girlfriend/boyfriend/non-binary partner how to do it if they live at another address and get them to smash though a bunch of signups too.
You will get reload offers...
You could move onto casino bonuses (really the time to do this was about a decade ago but they still exist) - there are issues here in that you're not longer locking in a profit but relying on the fact that with the bonus your otherwise -EV casino bets are actually +EV overall - these can be high variance and they're rather more aware of people abusing bonuses these days. Back in the day you could literally (in some cases) just cover an entire roulette wheel and get a bonus then roulette got banned from offers and everyone started playing blackjack etc..
Beyond that you might look at "trading" on Betfair - though this requires you to find some form of edge in the markets order to give you +EV bets (it is very easy for people to convince themselves that a run of good luck is actual "alpha" when often it isn't and their edge doesn't exist - nothing more than a mistaken belief that their charting skills or gazing at a price ladder has some predictive power. Be very careful and very skeptical if you get into this - there is a heck of a lot of utter BS out there and it can easily damage your wallet.
jeeze are you on the blob or something today - whats with the deliberate trolling?
The likes of Bet365 have been throwing out £50 free bets every day this week! It is a lot harder to make money than when I started, but the offers are still there.
Deleted member 66701
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Deleted member 66701
When I was a student, after all the sign up offers were exhausted, I could pull about 600 to 800 per month with about 4 hours work a day (but that was spread over 8am until about 9pm). I did look at doing more hours but even doubling the time (for the more complicated offers) only returned another 100 to 150 per month, so I didn't bother. With race meetings (i.e. Aintree, etc) you can add another 100 per month.
With dedication of a standard working week and a willingness to work Sat and Sun mornings, you could just about clear 1k a month I reckon.
I only do about 5 hrs a week now for about 150 per month - I just take the less time consuming offers.
Remember it's all tax free as well, so if you do say get into the 20k bracket that some manage, that's like a 25k job.
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