Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)
- Thread starter knowlton
- Start date
UNREAL - bloody Ruby Walsh at the last again....................honestly - easiest win of the week and falls at the last!
Associate
£210 up today with a mix of Matched betting and a little bit of Expected Value (where you don't match the bets but ensure that the offers mean the long term value will be there).
...and I didn't get the Bet365 free £50.
...and I didn't get the Bet365 free £50.
They'd have to be rather stingy offers if they didn't!
Associate
Indeed. I did a little happy dance when that odds on favourite fell at the last in the 4.10. I expected my pick to place and mitigate my losses accordingly but it then went on to win. £90 off what would have been a £2.50 qualifying loss.
UNREAL - bloody Ruby Walsh at the last again....................honestly - easiest win of the week and falls at the last!
cost me too, on a genuine bet as well
same - was just a straight bet for me as it was one of my bankers for the week...
Quick questions for the regulars – the daily/weekly reloads that are offered by bookies (Skybet: Bet 25, get 5. Coral: Bet £25 get £10 (£5 in store, £5 online). Paddy: Bet 5x£10, get £10. (mentioned by @Diddums in another thread) do you actually do these?
I did MB a few years ago and made good money on the sign ups but couldn’t see how to keep it going after that. Even a couple of hundred a month seemed impossible. For example, the bet £25, get £5 free bet. You assume maybe a 50p Qualifying loss on your £25 bet, and its around 80% of your free bet that I remember you actually make. So for 2 bets and 2 lays and money tied up as liability in the exchange, you’re earning circa £3.50? don’t get me wrong it’s free guaranteed money but hardly going to reach the figures people on here are mentioning.
Or is it all on 2UP’s and other offers now that you can keep it going consistently?
I did MB a few years ago and made good money on the sign ups but couldn’t see how to keep it going after that. Even a couple of hundred a month seemed impossible. For example, the bet £25, get £5 free bet. You assume maybe a 50p Qualifying loss on your £25 bet, and its around 80% of your free bet that I remember you actually make. So for 2 bets and 2 lays and money tied up as liability in the exchange, you’re earning circa £3.50? don’t get me wrong it’s free guaranteed money but hardly going to reach the figures people on here are mentioning.
Or is it all on 2UP’s and other offers now that you can keep it going consistently?
Associate
Does anyone else slightly lower their 'lay' bet? Just for a little more excitement in that the backed bet will create a larger profit?
For example, Yes Bets is telling me to back a horse at odds of 11.0 and lay at odds of 11.5...
The free bet is £25 so the backed bet will return £250 if won.
I've then only lay £15 with a liability of £157.50... Albeit if the horse doesn't win, I'll only be up £15. However, if it does, I'll be up a lot more.
Does this actually work out or have I completely got the wrong end of the stick?
I appreciate I could be guaranteed a little more profit if I did it by the book but puts a little more excitement in to it.
For example, Yes Bets is telling me to back a horse at odds of 11.0 and lay at odds of 11.5...
The free bet is £25 so the backed bet will return £250 if won.
I've then only lay £15 with a liability of £157.50... Albeit if the horse doesn't win, I'll only be up £15. However, if it does, I'll be up a lot more.
Does this actually work out or have I completely got the wrong end of the stick?
I appreciate I could be guaranteed a little more profit if I did it by the book but puts a little more excitement in to it.
Soldato
- Joined
- 30 Sep 2005
- Posts
- 16,550
Not sure what you are trying to achieve, but I have simply been laying off to cover the potential winnings. There is no qualifying loss.
If the horse wins, I get nothing but I don't lose anything either. If the horse loses, I win whatever my stake is on smarkets.
Yesterday returned £13.50, today hopefully will be £21
Basically if the horse you back for the £20 returns you £80 then lay off whatever amount matches that £80
I got it in the end - yeah - i used the wrong terminology!
Associate
It does work but it is effectively gambling. The long term profit from matching completely will exceed your proposed approach. Remember at odds of 11 (and factoring in the bookie margin) means your horse would only win 1 out of 13 times.
Don't forget you should always underlay a free bet as the stake is not returned for your back bet.
Associate
I made £400 odd today from the Cheltenham and CL offers. A number of bookies offer a free bet if your backed horse wins. I got a £5 QL on a £50 betfair back which then became a £50 free bet - which turned into £42 profit.
I also made money on the extra place offers. The exchange only pays out on 3 places on an EW bet, the bookie pays out on 4th. So you hope your horse comes in 4th. I had two of these today and made £150 profit off it.
Bet365 - bet £50 get £50 offer on the CL - another £35 profit
A bigger bank is required so you grind out the lower amounts (e.g. Paddy power free bet) week on week and then really ramp up on the big events.
you could have even more excitement by not laying at all... but yeah, in answer to the question in general you could bias things if you like, the profit is from the bookies and reducing your laying/taking on risk is fine... the point (IMO) is just to make sure you're doing things that have a positive expected value and that you understand the risks of.
No it shouldn't, laying is -EV, it is done for insurance/to lock in profit but in the long term you lose money at the exchange. If you bias things so you don't lay as much as you should (or indeed if you don't lay at all) then you're going to have a higher +ev albeit you're exposing yourself to plenty of variance.
Associate
I disagree with this I am afraid. Assuming the bookie odds are accurate (i.e. the outcomes reflect the accurate likelihood of happening) then it comes down to the QL compared to the bookie margin. If bookie margin is 9% (which is by and large is if you add up the odds) and your QL is c4% then your profit should be greater by sticking with the exchange.
Underlaying is effectively leaving part of your back bet as a pure gamble.
To further qualify this - I am assuming you are not paying commission to the exchange
You're ignoring the free bets - the fact that an exchange is more efficient and has a lower over-round/vig is missing the point. Without the free bets then you've got two negative expected value bets.
So yes if there are no free bets and you just blindly bet at both a bookie and exchange then you'd lose money slower at an exchange. However the free bets occur at the bookies, that is the important part as that is the +EV part of this, you don't make money from the exchange you lose money at the exchange (in the long run).
If you didn't lose money at the exchange, say if you had some system of making money from the exchange then why bother with the bookies and free bets at all?
The exchange therefore just acts as insurance and becomes a net cost overall - if you do away with the exchange (insurance) all together then you'll have a higher ev but your returns will be subject to more variance.