Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)
- Thread starter knowlton
- Start date
Soldato
That's strange, some times I find 8-9am a good time for matches. Just checked PA's Oddsmatcher and just saw a 4/4 a moment ago and as I type this - 3 matches with a >95% rating. Keep at it
I can't be taking any higher odds than 1.8-1.9 really. Don't have the bank for it with so much being tied up in bet365 and still so much to wager.
Soldato
There's a 1.62/1.68 which I might take (England v Germany) but that would eat into my profits quite a bit (-£4.30 if I do a £100 bet). It's just a matter of whether I want more profit and the money being tied up for longer, or just get it out the way with taking bad matches like that one.
Soldato
If it is your sole source of income then it is subject to tax so as a student (assuming no other employment) or if you did this full time then you should technically be declaring it.
Soldato
- Joined
- 29 Jun 2004
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My friend does this. Puts in ridiculous hours per week for £600 return a month. Less than minimum wage tbh.
I see what your saying although if the odds are 5/1 why is it nearer 6/1 assuming you pick something that would be close to an exchange?
Associate
My friend has been doing this for a few years now, he's got enough (coupled with some savings from his girlfriend and him) for a deposit on a house.
He also has accounts for all our friends too, he's been doing it for about 6 months for me, paid for me and the wife to go to a Michelin star restaurant, which was nice.
He also has accounts for all our friends too, he's been doing it for about 6 months for me, paid for me and the wife to go to a Michelin star restaurant, which was nice.
Soldato
No it doesn't. If that was true all our Betfair accounts would be in profit. They won't be - mine is £6k down over the last 3 months, and probably £200k down over the (many) years I've been MBing. Laying is a tool to minimise variance, not to generate profits, because as above it eats into the value of every offer we take.
Let's use your example of a £25 free bet on a 5/1 horse. Let's assume the horse is 6.0 to lay on Betfair and Betfair represents a reasonable estimate of actual probability. The horse has a 16.7% or 1 in 6 chance of winning. You place 6 identical bets, you end up £125 up without laying (in theory, in reality this is probably too small a sample).
If you lay the horse for £21 (5% commission and aiming for a standard 80% SNR return):
5 times out of 6 you return £21 and give £1 to Betfair in commission, leaving you net £20
1 time out of 6, the horse wins and you profit £125 at the bookie less £105, leaving you net £20
Total profit: £120
The difference between laying and not is £5, which is the "tax" you effectively pay to Betfair for minimising variance.
I'm not suggesting anyone should give up laying bets, but you should use the above knowledge to your advantage, like always laying your SNR free bets to return 80% even if you've found a 14/12 arb that will let you take out 90% of the free bet value. Over time it will be more profitable.
Soldato
Then your friend isn't very experienced at it then.
I banked £300 profit on Cheltenham with less than an hours work because I only used three bookies (Sky, Coral and Ladbrokes).
Outside of Cheltenham, it's quite easy to make £100 per month from about an hours worth of work. I've only been doing it since February and after one month, I'm up £700 (inc Cheltenham).
This doesn't include any sign up offers either.
If he's barely covering minimum wage, he's got to be putting in 20hrs per week and if that is the case, he's doing something drastically wrong to only make £150 from 20hrs.
Ive consistently made over £800 a month for over 7 months and work full time, i dont doubt ive had my luck on casino offers, however easily take £800 a month from a hour or 2 a day. Last month i made £1100 and month before £1500 just for your reference.. its a nice little earner on top of a normal wage, dont think i could ever trust it full time though.
Soldato
I 'lost' £1k cheltenham week in my exchange account too. Lots of horses won
For the bet365 offer on ch4 races, do horses on £50 bets. You wont lose much and if one wins you get the risk free in the next race.
When you say lost, you mean hedged right or did something go badly wrong
Laying should be the more profitable ending I'd guess as it sides you with the bookies.
House always wins or should as that is the company running the book for a profit, of course odds arent supposed to give you the best end. Like insurance, the premium should be above the odds of actually claims coming in over ten years or they'd go broke!
I would like to get into this, I got A for maths stats in college if thats any help. I did some of the world cup bets but nothing much otherwise. I lay csgo bets
correct
I pointed this out months ago and it went completely over people's heads and generated multiple posts from amigafan trying to argue with it. Clearly he still doesn't understand.
Yup, though in that example there is no spread between the price you can back at the bookie and the price you can lay on betfair - that also represents an additional cost to pay for laying.
Crossing the spread is a cost, paying commission is a cost, in return for that cost you get to hedge yourself and minimise variance but it does obviously lower the EV of each individual bet.
Neither, just the qualifying cost is moving money from bookie to liability, usually at a small loss. You then gain the free bets to use to extract 80-85 of the value from by losing at bookie and moving to exchange via high odds.
I guess it is a hedge, but as they are placed together its not really a hedge.
Soldato
I get the impression the Profit Accumulator crew don't actually understand what they're doing but that at least leeps some decent offers alive for the rest of us.
Deleted member 66701
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Deleted member 66701
It's not a case of not understanding but more a case of I think you're wrong. I've worked the maths over 9 months and it doesn't support your statement - but that's ok, we don't need to agree. You carry on what you're doing, I'll carry on what I'm doing and the world will keep turning. No need to argue the point any more.
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Sorry but you've not shown any working or given any coherent explanation and you can't, because you're wrong as One More Solo has illustrated. There is no 'I think you're wrong' about it I'm afraid(it isn't a political debate it is just basic maths), if you want to understand it better then sit down and try working through it again.
To be fair you have just shown that you don't fully understand this.
Soldato
Yeah, amiga is telling porkie pies, not laying is more profitable when taking value (if you can stomach the variance) my exchange history is well into the red.