Mortgage Rate Rises
- Thread starter glenimp617
- Start date
Soldato
Covid did weird stuff to the market. Go back to before then. Usual cycle was always a slowdown around October as no one wants to move house at Christmas and again around summer.
Move the slider it goes pre 2000.
Soldato
I did. I can see the summer and around October cycles.
Lol ok. Covid aside, this was the largest monthly fall since 2012.
I can get onboard with that. Never going to happen though unfortunately. I think some people that purchased in the last 18 months are in for a nasty sting somewhere down the line though.
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Soldato
I’m not surprised.
Any estate agent will tell you when the best times to sell a house are. https://www.readersdigest.co.uk/money/property/what-is-best-time-of-year-to-sell-a-house-fast
Now is a weak time in the market. The interest rate shocks will have been a big contributor but those have already started coming back with the Truss effect being removed (as reported in the media).
Your link shows October as a 'great' time to sell. Mid November to January is when any seasonality kicks in.
Soldato
As anyone who has bought or sold a property recently would tell you completion takes a month longer than it used to on average so those windows of opportunity are smaller.
Edit: seems like it is getting even longer to complete https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/articles/property-news/how-long-does-it-take-to-move-in-2022/
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So you think it is all seasonal and prices will not continue falling? I think you are wrong.
Soldato
I never said it won’t keep falling. The forecasts expect falls. HPI is also asking price so it will be volatile and not indicative of a trend yet
It's based on selling prices and nationwide mortgage transactions.
Soldato
HPI is asking prices. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/
Any selling prices appearing right now will be at least 4-5 months back.
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Nationwide HPI isn't. Which was what I linked.
From my first link
"The Nationwide Housing Price Index (HPI) is the U.K.'s second earliest report on house prices. It measures the change in the selling price of homes with mortgages backed by Nationwide."
The Nationwide methodology is also available, it's based on their mortgages to calculate what is happening in the market.
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Soldato
Ok so your link is based on mortgage properties and only those for Nationwide and compares that with previous mortgage properties for Nationwide.
Soldato
Really enjoying this guy's content.
youtu.be
Interest Rates & House Prices - What's Going to Happen?
It feels like an age since Gary last discussed low interest rates - things have changed drastically since and so Gary updates us on where he thinks Interest ...
youtu.be
When the rate fiasco feeds in we can expect a sharper drop imo.
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Soldato
I agree with him there will be a lot of cash buyers looking to buy property. I also think rates won’t stay high for a long period. As he says short dip next year but medium term they will likely greatly increase due to cash buyers.Really enjoying this guy's content.
Interest Rates & House Prices - What's Going to Happen?
It feels like an age since Gary last discussed low interest rates - things have changed drastically since and so Gary updates us on where he thinks Interest ...
Absolutely agree. People are risk off right now so won’t be looking to move. The number of properties for sale has also dropped a lot (just from a quick look in my area, no idea if this is across the country).
The thing I find interesting, is that right now I'm renting a nice place in Berkshire; Barn conversion with a double garage/parking, large garden, 2 bedrooms and plenty of space, for £1550 in a very very nice area.
I'm from Lincoln originally, the average price of a decent 3 bed semi with a garden, garage and stuff is around £300k.
Right now if I want a mortgage with a 10% deposit on a house in Lincoln for £300k, it's going to come in around £1800 a month*, that means in Lincoln - you'd need to have a household income of around £120k, in order for the mortgage payment to be around 30% of takehome salary, there aren't many people earning £120k in Lincoln.....
It just seems nuts to me, that it's cheaper for me to rent in Berkshire, than it is to own an average house in Lincoln. Then there's the question of how many people up there are going to be able to afford £1800 a month on a mortgage, I know people renting in London who are paying less...**
* Before this all kicked off, the same mortgage on the same property would have been around £1050-1100 a month.
**I imagine rents will also rise,