Mortgage Rate Rises
- Thread starter glenimp617
- Start date
Back to normal then.
I suppose so!
Man of Honour
It seems the "hype" has sort of subsided around this. Does anyone think the winds have changed slightly since a couple of weeks ago? Have the events in Westminster affected things positively or negatively at this point?
Soldato
The rises are baked in. Truss accelerated them. Expect more base rate rises. What the mortgage market prices in (the spread) above the base rate is likely going to move up only. It may start to lower 2028 or so depending on circumstances.
People will just get used to it!
This.
Rates will go up slowly, maybe not much at all I suspect. But I don't see any reduction in next 12 months.
Hopefully this is the end of the hikes. This must be the very edge of affordability.
Soldato
I expect we will follow the US strategy which is to go stronger with the interest rate rises earlier. They will go up higher than they are now but I expect they will start falling sometime next year.
Associate
This thread died quickly...
Soldato
rates moving again this week, so it'll wake up
Soldato
.75% I would think
Yes. Think so too.
0.75 would be my 1st guess. 0.5 my second. Don't think it'll be 1.0
Man of Honour
Will any boe rate move actually make any difference in the inflated current rates though? It seems like these are already "priced in" (starting to get sick of the term) from what I gather? If this is the case would we say we're looking at a potential climb down of rates if the increase is less than expected? We already had some rate drops in this week following the end (for now) of Westminster turmoil.
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Soldato
It'll make a difference if it's an unexpected decision, otherwise nah prolly not.
Associate
My money is on 1%, it needs to be closer to the US rate.
Soldato
All depends what Sunak does to cut spending. At the moment they believe he will do enough.
Associate
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Consumer spending feels quite high still. Premium goods in the supermarket seem to come and go on the shelves. People at work are spending on holidays 45yrs+ ages, while the younger ones living at their parents buying the usual expensive consumer goods. Whilst that's useless examples, restraunts and the like appear very busy still. For Sale and Sold signs still common place here too.
Feels all like a right mess.
Feels all like a right mess.
Logically rates should be rising significantly given that inflation is very high and Sterling is significantly devalued. I mean 15 years ago if you'd have said we have 10% inflation and it's 1.1 dollars to the pound, yet we have interest rates at a miniscule rate of 2.25%, people would have laughed you out of the room quicker than Kwasi holding a briefcase.
I don't think they need to rise much.
We are about to hit simultaneously :
-effects of the higher mortgage repayments
-winter fuel prices
-ever increasing food prices
-likely austerity
Doesn't actually need much of a base rate rise at the moment IMO.
Significant job losses must be just around the corner
We are about to hit simultaneously :
-effects of the higher mortgage repayments
-winter fuel prices
-ever increasing food prices
-likely austerity
Doesn't actually need much of a base rate rise at the moment IMO.
Significant job losses must be just around the corner
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Soldato
75-100bps this week
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www.reuters.com
Bank of England to hike by 75 bps on Nov. 3 but may go bigger
Whether the Bank of England delivers a 75-basis-point increase in interest rates on Nov. 3 or goes for an even bigger lift to tamp down double-digit inflation is a close call among economists polled by Reuters over the past week.
www.reuters.com
But isn't the issue that increasing rates will have little affect on the root cause of inflation at the moment i.e putins special obliteration