Mortgage Rate Rises

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There it is. My forever home! :D

That's just under 6 miles South of me, so stay away, I like my space :D
 
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I'll be coming at some point if I don't escape the UK entirely! :D

You live in a beautiful area

I have always loved it here and will never move.

It is a stunning place to live, not for everyone you need to love the outdoors.
 
I think you just sold it to @413x and will have a new neighbour soon!
:D
I have always loved it here and will never move.

It is a stunning place to live, not for everyone you need to love the outdoors.

My favourite UK holiday was to Aberystwyth and separately to corris.
So much mountain biking, beautiful and tiny town, middle of nowhere. Dolphins in cardigan Bay. Snowdonia nearby but you don't get the same amount of tourists on your doorstep.

I didn't want to go home! There was still so much to do!
 
We always used to have weekend breaks to Borth (a short way north of Aberystwyth) when I was young, we've been a few times with my son and he loves it around there too.
 
:D


My favourite UK holiday was to Aberystwyth and separately to corris.
So much mountain biking, beautiful and tiny town, middle of nowhere. Dolphins in cardigan Bay. Snowdonia nearby but you don't get the same amount of tourists on your doorstep.

I didn't want to go home! There was still so much to do!

Good buy, cwm rheidol valley stunning place, even has its own steam train running through the valley.

 
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Thats does look nice

You could probably seriously consider going off grid there.
Stonking solar array, stonking battery setup, lots of trees so woodburner with back water heating etc

See a tree and burn it. :p with all that solar and battery and good insulation you should not need to burn carbon rich stores.
 
See a tree and burn it. :p with all that solar and battery and good insulation you should not need to burn carbon rich stores.

Yes you would.
Solar in the UK in the depths of winter won't be enough for the vast majority.
2-3 months would require some backup generation, and heating via wood would be most logical in that location and to significantly reduce draw of the limited electricity stored.

All those trees need active management to keep them healthy, thinning etc.
There would be a plentiful supply of wood from a correctly managed wood of that size.
 
If UK has no other method and inflation kris going, maybe they'll just keep raising it until everything collapses.

There are other methods but we're too late into that now. (early VAT increase on luxury goods would have slowed some things down and hit more people fairly)
To curb inflation you need to dampen demand. Supply side inflation which we've suffered from can't be changed or influenced much by consumer behavior.


The government has handed the responsibility of dealing with inflation to the Bank of England and their only tool is interest rates. Until they get inflation down the only thing they can do is keep raising rates, but rate raises are so slow to ripple through the economy that they will largely raise too high and destroy things before bringing it back down at which point the economy is screwed....or really the common working person is screwed. Higher rate taxpayers are probably OK and the wealthy will be unaffected and use their wealth to buy the leftovers of failed families and businesses.
 
There are other methods but we're too late into that now. (early VAT increase on luxury goods would have slowed some things down and hit more people fairly)
To curb inflation you need to dampen demand. Supply side inflation which we've suffered from can't be changed or influenced much by consumer behavior.


The government has handed the responsibility of dealing with inflation to the Bank of England and their only tool is interest rates. Until they get inflation down the only thing they can do is keep raising rates, but rate raises are so slow to ripple through the economy that they will largely raise too high and destroy things before bringing it back down at which point the economy is screwed....or really the common working person is screwed. Higher rate taxpayers are probably OK and the wealthy will be unaffected and use their wealth to buy the leftovers of failed families and businesses.

Kind of what I thought. If had a mechanism for increasing vat on non essentials you'd get a double bonus.

You'd allow rich people to still buy stuff. And help the UKs huge deficit.
You wouldn't absolutely screw anyone coming up to mortgage renewal.
But you'd stop people like myself spending who has a fixed Mortgage, but isn't going to buy that new TV if it suddenly has 30pc vat on it and I know that vat is temporary.


Apart from it being difficult technically, I don't see why it isn't a bad idea?
 
There are other methods but we're too late into that now. (early VAT increase on luxury goods would have slowed some things down and hit more people fairly)
To curb inflation you need to dampen demand. Supply side inflation which we've suffered from can't be changed or influenced much by consumer behavior.


The government has handed the responsibility of dealing with inflation to the Bank of England and their only tool is interest rates. Until they get inflation down the only thing they can do is keep raising rates, but rate raises are so slow to ripple through the economy that they will largely raise too high and destroy things before bringing it back down at which point the economy is screwed....or really the common working person is screwed. Higher rate taxpayers are probably OK and the wealthy will be unaffected and use their wealth to buy the leftovers of failed families and businesses.

Its not their only tool they can sell bonds which they hold back into the market.

Nearly 1trillion worth they are holding, this is 1trillion £ that is in the economy.

When they sell them back, they get the money back, the money is then destroyed, doesn't exist.
 
The way VAT works, taxed at sale and then later paid to HMRC by VAT rated organisations does not lend itself to sudden change. Also you are inventing a luxury band. There would be endless work realising the goods that would be in it, and endless argument.
In fact it would raise very little in my view. A new corner sofa which people buy rarely is not a luxury item whereas your gucci belt maybe. Similarly a 77" television is not really a luxury as most houses need a TV. (Arguable).

Bank rate rises are to discourage spending and encourage saving. Simple as.
 
The way VAT works, taxed at sale and then later paid to HMRC by VAT rated organisations does not lend itself to sudden change. Also you are inventing a luxury band. There would be endless work realising the goods that would be in it, and endless argument.
In fact it would raise very little in my view. A new corner sofa which people buy rarely is not a luxury item whereas your gucci belt maybe. Similarly a 77" television is not really a luxury as most houses need a TV. (Arguable).

Bank rate rises are to discourage spending and encourage saving. Simple as.

I'm not sure about others but it's having the opposite affect on me.

Savings rates are dire, stocks are poor too. And inflation is rampant.

So I'd rather buy the things I need now as they are only going up far in excess of the savings rates. So buy now as it will be 10pc more expensive next year and savings will only be 5pc higher.
Plus I need to put it into an even worse rate isa. Yet more encouragement to spend it.
 
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Inflation would fall if people all of a sudden change their mindset and habit. Stop buying things with buy now pay later, stop spreading payment "Pay in 3" because it's "affordable" and simply change the mindset and save more.

That's the crux of it.

I'm not sure about others but it's having the opposite affect on me.

Savings rates are dire, stocks are poor too. And inflation is rampant.

So I'd rather buy the things I need now as they are only going up far in excess of the savings rates. So buy now as it will be 10pc more expensive next year and savings will only be 5pc higher.
Plus I need to put it into an even worse rate isa. Yet more encouragement to spend it.

I don't know about stocks being poor, as I haven't checked the whole market but I opened an Stocks and Shares ISA last September, and it's currently sitting at 6.52% gain!

The index fund I opened in around 2020 is sitting at 31.5% gain.
 
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Bank rate rises are to discourage spending and encourage saving. Simple as.

I think in an ideal scenario that may work, but if your savings account only give 2-3% where is the incentive to save? If you don't have a mortgage, and there are a significant number of homes without a mortgage, then poor savings rate mean even less so might as well buy new things.

Food inflation is around 20%, we all have to eat and can't cut back on that demand. Eating out is up 10% due to energy bills. Things like that are causing inflation to be sticky.

*** really rough numbers just for quick examples....don't quote me on them ***
 
I know on paper it seems the idea that saving would be crap if you get 3% interest on savings vs buying something that is going to be 10% more expensive a year from now.

Or look at it this way, if you don't buy it, rather than said item being 10% more next year, you have more money in the bank instead. And you might not need the item later. So you have an extra £300 in the bank for not buying that watch, yes it might be £330 next year, but if you were to sell that used, you are not exactly going to get £300 back next year even if RRP new goes up to £330. (as a made up scenario).

It's a bit like the mindset "Buy 2 get 1 free" thinking you save money, but that's how they get you, and it is almost always just get the 1 thing you need and not buy more. There are obviously exceptions but that's the idea.
 
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Inflation would fall if people all of a sudden change their mindset and habit. Stop buying things with buy now pay later, stop spreading payment "Pay in 3" because it's "affordable" and simply change the mindset and save more.

That's the crux of it.



I don't know about stocks being poor, as I haven't checked the whole market but I opened an Stocks and Shares ISA last September, and it's currently sitting at 6.52% gain!

The index fund I opened in around 2020 is sitting at 31.5% gain.

Ignoring the covid bounce, is it actually a gain recently? More likely you were lucky enough to buy during a dip.


Look at the last 18months for a popular fund, it's very stagnant.
 
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