Mortgage Rate Rises

Caporegime
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Rates staying put then and likely to for a little while yet. Interesting that there was a three way split. Still two on the panel wanting to raise it to 5.5%. might take a little while for them to come to an agreement to actually drop them.
 
Soldato
Joined
21 Jan 2010
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22,944
Hmmmmmmmmmmm

I renewed my first half at 4.74% yesterday (with £1k charge). I need to make a decision as to whether I go onto a no-fees tracker that is substantially higher (6.22% with £0 charge) and extend the term (to preserve cashflow).

Then when my second half mortgage is due in September I can go to the open market and combine them.

Glitches:
1. House prices may go further down. I am at the absolute edge of 80% LTV atm.
2. Rates could increase - the tracker would be dinged directly.
3. The best mortgage offer come September could be Nationwide and it would prevent me from combining the mortgages.

Am I being an idiot seeking to combine the mortgages? I have effectively "hedged" my risk by 48/52.
 
Caporegime
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Rates staying put then and likely to for a little while yet. Interesting that there was a three way split. Still two on the panel wanting to raise it to 5.5%. might take a little while for them to come to an agreement to actually drop them.

I was surprised by this. Maybe they have a load of money in flexible savers! :D

I would have expected one or 2 vote for the fall and rest to stick. Didn't expect anyone to vote for a rise!
 

FNG

FNG

Associate
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28 Dec 2002
Posts
800
Hmmmmmmmmmmm

I renewed my first half at 4.74% yesterday (with £1k charge). I need to make a decision as to whether I go onto a no-fees tracker that is substantially higher (6.22% with £0 charge) and extend the term (to preserve cashflow).

Then when my second half mortgage is due in September I can go to the open market and combine them.

Glitches:
1. House prices may go further down. I am at the absolute edge of 80% LTV atm.
2. Rates could increase - the tracker would be dinged directly.
3. The best mortgage offer come September could be Nationwide and it would prevent me from combining the mortgages.

Am I being an idiot seeking to combine the mortgages? I have effectively "hedged" my risk by 48/52.
Given the fees seem to be increasing (based on no real evidence I must say) then only having one fee to pay might be good? I was fortunate enough to pay my mortgage off in January, but before I did I was still getting some offers with no fees, albeit at a slightly higher rate. It is a difficult time to try and predict; many rates are less than the base rate ATM and I don't think there is any guarantee that the rate will head downwards any time soon.

Edit: looking back at your amounts I guess the fee isn't a huge issue. 1.5% higher for 6 months or so could be a significant amount?
 
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Caporegime
Joined
20 May 2007
Posts
39,821
Location
Surrey
I was surprised by this. Maybe they have a load of money in flexible savers! :D

I would have expected one or 2 vote for the fall and rest to stick. Didn't expect anyone to vote for a rise!

Me neither. They are obviously fairly divided.

Be interesting to see what it ends up at by the end of the year.
 
Soldato
Joined
14 Jan 2018
Posts
14,853
Location
Hampshire
Hmmmmmmmmmmm

I renewed my first half at 4.74% yesterday (with £1k charge). I need to make a decision as to whether I go onto a no-fees tracker that is substantially higher (6.22% with £0 charge) and extend the term (to preserve cashflow).

Then when my second half mortgage is due in September I can go to the open market and combine them.

Glitches:
1. House prices may go further down. I am at the absolute edge of 80% LTV atm.
2. Rates could increase - the tracker would be dinged directly.
3. The best mortgage offer come September could be Nationwide and it would prevent me from combining the mortgages.

Am I being an idiot seeking to combine the mortgages? I have effectively "hedged" my risk by 48/52.
You have to question how much is 'priced in', need another paradigm shift in rate expectations for mortgages to go materially lower between now and September. Conditions to allow that i.e big recession or inflation collapsing under 2% look very unlikely. But tomorrow it could all change.
 
Soldato
Joined
21 Jan 2010
Posts
22,944
Given the fees seem to be increasing (based on no real evidence I must say) then only having one fee to pay might be good? I was fortunate enough to pay my mortgage off in January, but before I did I was still getting some offers with no fees, albeit at a slightly higher rate. It is a difficult time to try and predict; many rates are less than the base rate ATM and I don't think there is any guarantee that the rate will head downwards any time soon.

Edit: looking back at your amounts I guess the fee isn't a huge issue. 1.5% higher for 6 months or so could be a significant amount?
It would kick in 1st April and my 2nd half starts 1st of September.

Baseline position
1. Fix for 5 years
Fee of £999
Increase would be ~£450/mo
Term would increase 2 years
- In this scenario I am basically "done" for 5 years.

2. Fix second half for 5 years
Fee of £999
Increase would be ~£350/mo
Term would increase 2 years
- In this scenario I am basically "done" for 5 years.

Tracker position
1. Flexible for 2 years
Fee of £0
Increase would be ~£533/mo
Term would increase 7 years
- In this scenario I pay "cash" extra of £73/mo for April, May, June, July, August (£365 cash extra)
...but obviously I'd get dinged 5 months of higher %age.

2. Go to market for total mortgage
Fee of £0 (First Direct)
Rate of 4.69% (so marginally better than Nationwide)

-----------------
Risk is that First Direct bin me on affordability but hopefully I can YOLO that.

You have to question how much is 'priced in', need another paradigm shift in rate expectations for mortgages to go materially lower between now and September. Conditions to allow that i.e big recession or inflation collapsing under 2% look very unlikely. But tomorrow it could all change.
Materially lower is OK as long as they don't go materially higher.

I guess if I go to Tracker I could always reserve another product and push out the start date to bridge the gap..??
Could I also apply to FirstDirect now/within 6 months of the 2nd mortgage finishing?
Edit: also Money Supermarket is complete BS>
ET0boU3.png

NW can only offer me 4.74%....
 
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Soldato
Joined
21 Jan 2010
Posts
22,944
I've just been offered 4.15% for two year fixed with a £999 product fee, bringing us down to an increase of only about £425 per month (bah). That's down from near £600 though.

@dlockers any reason why you aren't using a broker?
The broker wanted £50 to click the buttons I am clicking; they said because its in two halves they can't do much. This was with Habito (I used them years ago and got a bunch of cashback). I might try a proper broker though; because if I can execute my Tracker approach with lower risk (i.e. lock in a FirstDirect offer prior to 1st Sept) I am going to save a reasonable amount I think....
 
Soldato
Joined
2 May 2011
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Location
Woking
The broker wanted £50 to click the buttons I am clicking; they said because its in two halves they can't do much. This was with Habito (I used them years ago and got a bunch of cashback). I might try a proper broker though; because if I can execute my Tracker approach with lower risk (i.e. lock in a FirstDirect offer prior to 1st Sept) I am going to save a reasonable amount I think....

I have a good broker if you want a hook up. They charge the bank instead of you, and in my experience they get preferential rates. I know you get charged in a roundabout away, but if I go on the Halifax website I'm unlikely to be offered the same rates. And they understand the interactions of the different mortgages etc.
 
Soldato
Joined
12 Apr 2007
Posts
11,949
I was surprised by this. Maybe they have a load of money in flexible savers! :D

I would have expected one or 2 vote for the fall and rest to stick. Didn't expect anyone to vote for a rise!

I guess there is some caution in the shape of macro economics, Brexit border checks incoming, Ukraine and Gaza could all be playing a part in that mindset, I guess slow incremental rises are better than having to suddenly rise by a few whole percentage points in one go.
It think at best we will see rates staying largely stagnent in the short to mid term.
 
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Soldato
Joined
21 Jan 2010
Posts
22,944
I have a good broker if you want a hook up. They charge the bank instead of you, and in my experience they get preferential rates. I know you get charged in a roundabout away, but if I go on the Halifax website I'm unlikely to be offered the same rates. And they understand the interactions of the different mortgages etc.
Yes please - worth a shout!

--------------

My current man maths:
57kpRit.png


So basically if I consolidate and go elsewhere, I'll only save ~1500 over 5 years. Maybe I just forget the idea of combing them and take the 2x£999 fees and crack on. At least I can be sure this first bit is as good as it can be.
 
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Caporegime
Joined
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Posts
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Location
Llaneirwg
I guess there is some caution in the shape of macro economics, Brexit border checks incoming, Ukraine and Gaza could all be playing a part in that mindset, I guess slow incremental rises are better than having to suddenly rise by a few whole percentage points in one go.
It think at best we will see rates staying largely stagnent in the short to mid term.

Looks like it's got a way to go before a fall.
Still hoping for H12024 myself.
Yes please - worth a shout!

--------------

My current man maths:
57kpRit.png


So basically if I consolidate and go elsewhere, I'll only save ~1500 over 5 years.

Your figures always make my eyes water! :D
 
Soldato
Joined
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Posts
14,853
Location
Hampshire
Materially lower is OK as long as they don't go materially higher.

I guess if I go to Tracker I could always reserve another product and push out the start date to bridge the gap..??
Could I also apply to FirstDirect now/within 6 months of the 2nd mortgage finishing?
Of course I completely forgot about the possibility of going higher, always possible, depends how much you value certainty. (whatever you do it'll probably be wrong like that gas fix!)
 
Soldato
Joined
29 May 2005
Posts
4,947
I guess there is some caution in the shape of macro economics, Brexit border checks incoming, Ukraine and Gaza could all be playing a part in that mindset, I guess slow incremental rises are better than having to suddenly rise by a few whole percentage points in one go.
It think at best we will see rates staying largely stagnent in the short to mid term.
None of which lowering or upper base rate can help to control.

Much of the inflation is just that.

And UK economy is too small to have any sway on global markets.

A bit different if it is ECB or Fed or China central bank moving their base rates.
 
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Associate
Joined
23 Nov 2018
Posts
381
Well I've just gone and rate changed from 5.84 to 4.04 and paid the ERC charge. Hold on everyone, rates are sure to drop in the next week or two! :D

I had planned to keep going on to the site every 2 weeks and line up another acceptance deal in case the rates go down further but knowing my luck I'll forget to renew and they'll go up slightly and it will bug the crap out of me!
 
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Caporegime
Joined
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Posts
32,684
Location
Llaneirwg
Well I've just gone and rate changed from 5.84 to 4.04 and paid the ERC charge. Hold on everyone, rates are sure to drop in the next week or two! :D

I had planned to keep going on to the site every 2 weeks and line up another acceptance deal in case the rates go down further but knowing my luck I'll forget to renew and they'll go up slightly and it will bug the crap out of me!
You got a 5.84 and paid an erc?
That must have been 2pc at the very least?

You couldn't have been on that 5.84 long?
 
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