Mortgage Rate Rises

Soldato
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Also worth bearing in mind some of the narrative I heard about the election timing was that the forecast for inflation actually goes back up again later into the year.

The way they work out inflation is on a 12 months rolling cycle. It was always going to drop during this period as the 3 months segment from 12 months ago was higher than the trending average so when that segment was older than 12 months and dropped of the rolling cycle, it would have brought inflation down.

The next 3 months from a year ago we had normal rates and even a negative one (IIRC), so when the new normal numbers get added and the lower/negitive numbers drop out. It's going to look like inflation has raisen again, so expect all the normal media outlets to blame labour as soon as they come into power. But it's like if the prevous owners of the house has used less than normal water from 12 months ago and then you take the place and used a normal amount of water, but it brings the average for the 12 months up.

There's no direct link between inflation and house prices as they work on apperication, how much someone is willing to pay for a house.. but it does affect interest rates and in theory when inflation is lower, people are prepared to borrow or/and spend more putting house prices up.
 
Soldato
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Should just rename themselves BoA....

Looking forward to the extra £400 a month mortgage payment come the end of the year... pay rise has certainly been nowhere near inflation these last couple of years.
 
Caporegime
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Yeah, I'm not sure where @jpaul got that from.




That's about 730 sq ft for houses built over the last decade, and the average overall now seems to be around there too.

Screenshot-2024-06-20-160344.png




Edit: I've found where he got it from. It's from an article discussing house sizes in Scotland, which for obvious reasons (space and land costs primarily) is competely different to the rest of the UK:


I was going to say! No way is the UK average size 2000 sq feet.

Even 1500 sq feet is pretty big in this country.
 
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Soldato
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The BoE holds interest rates at 5.25...what a surprise...follow in the footsteps of US much.
I don’t know why anyone is expecting it to come down, the bank will rightly hold it high for as long as they can the country would be much better balanced if inflation could be maintained at target with a decent interest rate that rewards saving and discourages large borrowings.

They were never going to bring it down the minute inflation was back on target.
 
Soldato
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Yeah feels super balanced as a first time buyer...

Looking forward to a reduction to sensible levels. 4% or so would be fine. 3% world be a dream.
 
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Soldato
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You lot are all pointing your blame at the wrong thing, inflation, interest rates - this isn't why housing is so expensive in this country, it's spiraling capitalism.

They should make it illegal that a company can purchase a domestic property, that would sort some of it out, then if your gonna have landlords with hundreds of houses at least they'll be taxed to hell on it*, there should be no reason what so ever for a company to own a domestic property.

*Unless you live in Gournsey or similar, I've seen that as well used as a tax dodge.

The rules in this country are horrendous, and favour the rich, the tax laws they put in about second home ownership only really affected the small fish, the big fish setup SPV limited companies and have well paid accountants to ensure they basically don't pay tax.

That is why we are all screwed.
 
Soldato
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If we actually had state. Owned social housing in plentiful supply it would naturally help cap rents. And those who wanted to pay a lot of rent for something could.
Imagine a time when the state owned and built houses! Thatchers right to buy was possibly one of the worst planned and implemented policies in the countries history!
 
Associate
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Imagine a time when the state owned and built houses! Thatchers right to buy was possibly one of the worst planned and implemented policies in the countries history!
No thatcher fan but you could argue the idea was sound, just the application wasn't. Her government didn't spend the money on new housing stock and it's been diminished ever since.

Post war government of the time went ham on house building and the economy boomed as a result, just a shame we haven't had a government serious about housing since.
 
Soldato
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How would affordable or social housing work in your world? To rent I mean...

I think there's an issue with expectations/entitlement....
I've grow up in social housing but never expected to receive social housing.
I live in an area where there's limited housing but likely small but very vocal group of freeloaders in the area expects to be given housing.
We had one chap that heard that there was some new affordable housing being built and expected to get two homes for his two adult childern still living at home.
Those are the people who moan when "non locals" buying or renting houses in the area... but they seem to forget that we boarder three areas that are much wealthier areas. I'm all for it as it brings in more wealth into the area.

My first act to fix social/affordable housing would be for housing benefits to be paid directly to landlords again.. this should bring down the cost and make more retails available again.
One of the biggest issues is when housing benefits are no longer paid directly to landlords, landlords are accpeting higher risks renting to DSS and then not receiving payment and my brother has had this issue. While landlords can't explicitly say "no dss", they can price their property over the DSS amount and not accept guarantors, or over price their property to cover the risk/costs of non payments.

My second act would be setup up a national social housing agency, matching renters with properties. If you need a house, they will find you one that is suitable or place you on a list in areas for when a suitable house becomes available. In theory; landlords will be renting to the agency and renters are renting from the agency, so if the property becomes more suitable, you may be asked to move in.. if the property you're renting is no longer suitable, you may be asked to move to anothe place.
None of this BS, of an old couple living in a three/four bedroom house by themselves as their kids have all grown up and moved out.. none of this BS of people only wanting houses in certain areas because their friends or family are there. Harsh as it might sound, but they have the choice of buying a house that they want to live in, renting a home privately that they want to live in or if they want a heavily discounted housing; they don't get the luxury.

My third act would be no empty properties for over 12 months. Once a property that is up for rent or sale is on the market for over 12 months and empty, it get's handed over to the national social housing agency who will pay the regional average to rent it from the owner. Unless a property is under development therefore not fit to live in, someone should be living in it. This will bring down the prices of both renting and buying houses..
 
Soldato
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Yeah, I'm not sure where @jpaul got that from.




That's about 730 sq ft for houses built over the last decade, and the average overall now seems to be around there too.

Screenshot-2024-06-20-160344.png




Edit: I've found where he got it from. It's from an article discussing house sizes in Scotland, which for obvious reasons (space and land costs primarily) is competely different to the rest of the UK:


hmmh - I don't believe scottish market is different - I can't explain which discrepancy but government figures also support growth for newer properties !
which correspond to my anecdotal experience comparing childhood 60s 3bed semi with 2010 property I have now supports.
maybe the government or which has an agenda.

( yes in central london the micro-flats in which article are a thing. )

when I saw original article I was looking to see how much single person occupied properties had risen - wondering if they were now taking an unfair share (and council tax reduction questionable)
 
Soldato
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No thatcher fan but you could argue the idea was sound, just the application wasn't. Her government didn't spend the money on new housing stock and it's been diminished ever since.

Post war government of the time went ham on house building and the economy boomed as a result, just a shame we haven't had a government serious about
You can’t build social housing without revoking the right to buy because as soon as you house someone for a couple of years they can buy the house below market rate. No government has had the courage to admit this and can the policy!
 
Soldato
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You can’t build social housing without revoking the right to buy because as soon as you house someone for a couple of years they can buy the house below market rate. No government has had the courage to admit this and can the policy!
this is absolutely right. They need to pause right to buy, and devolve this power to local authority especially in areas where there is acute housing need or high rental costs vs local average wage.
 
Soldato
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hmmh - I don't believe scottish market is different

I’m not really sure what there is to be confused about.

The same market forces are at work, but land in Scotland is incredibly cheap compared to the rest of the UK and only has a population density of 70 per km2 compared with England’s 438 per km2.

I would be shocked if the average house size in Scotland hadn’t increased since the 1970’s, given the dramatic economic improvements becoming EU members brought to the region.
 
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