Mortgage Rate Rises

[matt100]

And if you've got the salary to pay for it and it's not a burden, why not.

Its an appreciating asset as well. (probably!)

Well yeah, my version of security is that I already have enough equity to sell up, downsize and be mortgage free elsewhere in the UK.

All that said I am not immune to the madness that the cheapest house (not flat/stuiod or maisonette) within 5 miles of me is over £200k

 

[413x]

Well yeah, my version of security is that I already have enough equity to sell up, downsize and be mortgage free elsewhere in the UK.

All that said I am not immune to the madness that the cheapest house (not flat/stuiod or maisonette) within 5 miles of me is over £200k

Its crazy.
I know someone in London who bought a flat above a chip shop in a right state. And it cost same as our 3 bed detached.

Obviously we all know London and the SE is expensive. But when you see it first hand it's still a shock.

Alas. We won't have the option of selling up and cashing in.

 

[smokedog]

The BoE holds interest rates at 5.25...what a surprise...follow in the footsteps of US much.

 

[danlightbulb]

The BoE holds interest rates at 5.25...what a surprise...follow in the footsteps of US much.

Said it before, they may as well just have an excel spreadsheet where they input the US number and it outputs the UK number. Because that is all they do. Completely inept and useless organisation.

 

[413x]

Said it before, they may as well just have an excel spreadsheet where they input the US number and it outputs the UK number. Because that is all they do. Completely inept and useless organisation.

Taking back control..

I wish I could get paid as much as that lot for a line of code in excel.

 

[danlightbulb]

I know this will get sarcastic laugh reactions but you could essentially automate the whole process. A few inputs for other countries decisions, inflation rate (broken down into core and a few other categories), wage growth, gdp, borrowing rates and a few other key metrics, and a bunch of rolling averages and IF statements in Excel, and you could probably get this to mirror the BOE decisions for the past 20 years.

 

[413x]

I know this will get sarcastic laugh reactions but you could essentially automate the whole process. A few inputs for other countries decisions, inflation rate (broken down into core and a few other categories), wage growth, gdp, borrowing rates and a few other key metrics, and a bunch of rolling averages and IF statements in Excel, and you could probably get this to mirror the BOE decisions for the past 20 years.

I expect you'd get most of the way there just looking at the previous meetings change and copying that 1 or 2 months down the line.

 

[matt100]

Just as devils advocate... why is that a problem?

A different way of stating this is that they are signing off of what is a pretty straightforward decision... I mean, I do that at work all the time.

 

[Jono8]

I think South Park explained it best:

 

[jpaul]

did BOE hold it to avoid being political , it was warm electoral potato

I grew up in Huddersfield,

and you have no yearning to return to that part of the country, if only appropriate employment were available,

Huddersfield while it doesn't appear to be a , permanent vacation location, UK doesn't have any I think, would be better than Cambridgeshire
but wfh is genuinely possible with only a few jobs , and, I think there is more than correlation between UK low productivity and WFH which will find us out, vs europe.

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on earlier comments

The average property size
Then
In 1970, the average size of a property was 1,200 square feet.
Now
By 2021, the average property size grew to 2,000 square feet, as we look for additional space to stretch out and accommodate modern living.

​

 

[PlacidCasual]

Said it before, they may as well just have an excel spreadsheet where they input the US number and it outputs the UK number. Because that is all they do. Completely inept and useless organisation.

Is this effectively because our debt levels so high and capital flow if we don't match the US?

 

[b0rn2sk8]

It’s also because our monetary policy and fiscal policy are at odds.

The tories have cut taxes which are inflationary while the BOE is holding rates high to… combat inflation.

I’m not even sure how good rates are at combatting inflation anyway. Raising direct taxes are likely to have a more profound effect more quickly.

 

[Jono8]

did BOE hold it to avoid being political , it was warm electoral potato


and you have no yearning to return to that part of the country, if only appropriate employment were available,

Huddersfield while it doesn't appear to be a , permanent vacation location, UK doesn't have any I think, would be better than Cambridgeshire
but wfh is genuinely possible with only a few jobs , and, I think there is more than correlation between UK low productivity and WFH which will find us out, vs europe.

------------

on earlier comments

​

The average property size is 2000 sq feet!!!!?

WTF? That cannot be true surely.

 

[jaybee]

Next meet is August 1st? I guess they are holding out until then to start the drops. Hmm.

 

[matt100]

Next meet is August 1st? I guess they are holding out until then to start the drops. Hmm.

Also worth bearing in mind some of the narrative I heard about the election timing was that the forecast for inflation actually goes back up again later into the year.

Whilst I maintain it is likely a pretty straightforward decision - and it ought to be, we saw what economics in the style of freeform jazz did with Trussonomics - I also assume they want to be sure inflation is under control before moving.

Stated personal interest here is a house move next year, I am no fan of higher rates and I'm sure they'll come down a bit but I think it'll be pretty slow.

 

[dlockers]

It’s also because our monetary policy and fiscal policy are at odds.

The tories have cut taxes which are inflationary while the BOE is holding rates high to… combat inflation.

I’m not even sure how good rates are at combatting inflation anyway. Raising direct taxes are likely to have a more profound effect more quickly.

Would rather pay higher tax than higher interest rate tbh. Spreads the load.

 

[Jono8]

Also worth bearing in mind some of the narrative I heard about the election timing was that the forecast for inflation actually goes back up again later into the year.

Whilst I maintain it is likely a pretty straightforward decision - and it ought to be, we saw what economics in the style of freeform jazz did with Trussonomics - I also assume they want to be sure inflation is under control before moving.

Stated personal interest here is a house move next year, I am no fan of higher rates and I'm sure they'll come down a bit but I think it'll be pretty slow.

I think it will be a while before mortgage rates drop significantly. A small rate drop is probably already somewhat priced in, and I doubt the BOE is going to drop rates that quickly unless we get another massive economic crash.

 

[Sythe79]

The average property size is 2000 sq feet!!!!?

WTF? That cannot be true surely.

Yeah, I'd like to see the working out on that, at least by location how they are offsetting the million new shoebox city centre flats, countless larger properties being split up and even any new build house under 500k getting crammed on to a tiny plot with 3 bathrooms.

 

[tonys]

Yeah, I'd like to see the working out on that, at least by location how they are offsetting the million new shoebox city centre flats, countless larger properties being split up and even any new build house under 500k getting crammed on to a tiny plot with 3 bathrooms.

Quick look said 800sqft as the UK average.

 

[GordyR]

Quick look said 800sqft as the UK average.

Yeah, I'm not sure where @jpaul got that from.

Shrinking homes: the average British house 20% smaller than in 1970s - Which? News

Size and number of bedrooms also at a record low

www.which.co.uk

UK homes are now around 20% smaller than they were back in the 1970’s, with houses constructed in the last decade providing an average of 67.8 square metres of living space.

That's about 730 sq ft for houses built over the last decade, and the average overall now seems to be around there too.

Edit: I've found where he got it from. It's from an article discussing house sizes in Scotland, which for obvious reasons (space and land costs primarily) is competely different to the rest of the UK:

How has the housing market changed in 50 years?

As ESPC marks its 50th anniversary, we look back at how the housing market has changed since 1971.

espc.com