Mortgage Rate Rises

ouch that must hurt.

I've got 3 different sub accounts on 3 different rates (good/middle and not amazing-but-not-bad) first once is up in 2026 and I'm torn between hammering it or dumping it into savings. Savings rates are higher than the mortgage and I know what I SHOULD do but I do like seeing the balance go down

Luckily we had great rates for a long time and we overpaid each month - we'll be finished with the mortgage in Feb 25. It crept from 0.84% in Jan 24 over the next few months to 6%.
 
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Can't see it not dropping down more unless another big event occurs.

Jackie-Chan-WTF.jpg
 
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If things carry on as they are looking I think I'll have successfully weathered the storm by time I come to renewal

If things carry on in the Middle East there’ll be a new storm. 4% basically keeps our payment the same as before now we’ve extended slightly, so tempted to lock in at 5. I’ll do whatever the wife wants. With my recent new job I’ll probably pay it off in the next 10 years or so anyway.

More rate reductions are due tomorrow from: Barclays, HSBC, Halifax, Santander and NatWest apparently.

That would be good. Have our broker meeting next week. Last chance for us to lock in.
 
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Wow, mortgage offers have dropped. Santander far cheaper, but will stick with NatWest. 2 year at 4.35% locked in. Santander was about 3.8% for a 5. Lesson learnt, stick with our broker who had better deals, no fee this time and half the upfront cost on the product fee. Seems most are going for 2 years now, understandable.
 
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so we bought our house near 3 years ago, we locked in 3 year deal at 1.99%.

I recently got a telling off from wifes brother for not locking on 5 years because he knew the rates will go up yadada, the usual predict the future.

so I said to him, okay our renewal is coming up soon(mid 25), what do you lock in for now, he said 2-3 years max as the rates will drop. Now, tell me, am I being stupid or is this just guess work? how can you predict. His argument is he's been "in the game for way longer than us"

what's to say that I shouldn't lock in to 5 years or even 10 as the market will flop on it's arse more, from what I can see, there's no real way of predicting. While I agree the sub 2% rates were "unusually" low, they were also at that number for a good chunk of time so it's just our luck that things crashed.

our house value also dropped by a few % which is extremely frustrating so that adds to the pain. Anyway, more of a vent that anything as luck seems to always shine away from us :)
 
No. The thought process you just went through in that post I'll guess is all he's done. Yes they were crazy low but nobody would have predicted the impact the lettuce would have, or Ukraine etc.

I think 3-5 is reasonable horizon to guess at so now you could assume they'll trend slightly down.

But what you can't account for with 10 is what the world will look like. 10 years ago we were in the EU and we were having football tournaments in Russia.

In 10 years Putin could well be dead along with trump and xi, Beirut might not exist etc etc... far too many variables not to mention you might want to move, could have massive life events hit you. For the benefit I'd argue it's not worth it.

The one constant is change.
 
I'd say 5-10 years would have been a safe bet back 3 years ago. Rates were going up and we knew they wouldn't be coming down for a while.
Didn't expect them to go up as far as they did. But locking in for a 5 was a no brainier really. How far could they (at best) come down? Not enough to make you regret going 5.

But I certainly wouldn't be going 5 now as to me more likely to go down vs up. But back in 2021/2..it was almost zero chance of being lower in under 5 years then

Only reason didn't go 10 year was not being locked into the erc cost of that. But I was 50/50 on it. If I had been sure of circumstances (of I was single, committed to the UK) I'd have got a 10 as it was also 1.94

Locked in for 5 years at 1.94 so pretty much same time as @grudas
 
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This is also true, when they were basically 0 they couldn't go any lower and when they were 6 they couldn't realistically go any higher.. in between those 2 points is a gamble and probably rewards slightly shorter fixes.
 
Locked in at 3.79% for 5 years starting January 2025. We value stability and knowing what we need to pay. 5 years will see us at around 80k left providing we don't overpay.
 
This is also true, when they were basically 0 they couldn't go any lower and when they were 6 they couldn't realistically go any higher.. in between those 2 points is a gamble and probably rewards slightly shorter fixes.

It cost me 2000 pounds to break my old mortgage and refix for 5 years.

Because month on month they were increasing. And like you say I think the very best it was about 1.3pc or something.
I'm not going to regret locking I just for 5 years at 1.9 if they drop to 1.3 again.

But if they go up to 3-4 (that was my guess) I'd be burning 3-400 a month extra..
Never did I think they'd be topping out at 6pc.

That was my thought process... How long and how high do rates have to go to break even paying 2k.erc? Not long it turned out
 
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I got all excited, my current plan is at 4.01% with about 3 years left on it but the same lender is offering a 5 year plan, 10 years in total for 4.02%...
so I'll be waiting for a few more months. With fines of 3% for ending the deal early, I think it be another 2 years when the fine drops to 1% before it's worth me getting a new deal.
 
Meats back on the menu boys


I'm sure we can break £300k for the average house price this year if we really try. With median household income in the UK of £35k, the average house only costs over 8x the average household income.
They will need these extended mortgage terms and more freedom in the loan to wage ratio to carry on the gravy train.
Its not going to be long before it's the norm mortgages aren't paid off by retirement at this rate.
Or multi generation houses. Or more than 2 adults per house.
 
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Meats back on the menu boys


I'm sure we can break £300k for the average house price this year if we really try. With median household income in the UK of £35k, the average house only costs over 8x the average household income.
You love to see it. :mad:
They will need these extended mortgage terms and more freedom in the loan to wage ratio to carry on the gravy train.
Its not going to be long before it's the norm mortgages aren't paid off by retirement at this rate.
Or multi generation houses. Or more than 2 adults per house.

Isn’t this already starting to become the case? I’m seeing 40 years now. That’s insane.

I guess more and more will do part owned.
 
They will do whatever it takes to keep the gravy train rolling. Part ownership will 100% become the norm. Owning a house without the benefits. Want to make any changes? Hmm, going to have to get the part owners approval which will be expensive because it will be a faceless corporation who will want to charge you.
 
It will be interesting to see where the cross-over point comes, the banks can't keep giving out mortgages below base rate forever, the last time from memory that happened for an extended period was 2006/07 and nothing bad happened after that ;)
 
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