Mortgage Rate Rises

delta0 · 28 Sep 2022 at 08:50

JamesH85 said:
Unless you plan to move house or refinance something, I wouldn't even worry about it.

I wouldn’t either. There’s far too many cash buyers that will snap things up before average Joe could get a look in anyway. Hong Kong people are snapping up everything around my way.

200sols · 28 Sep 2022 at 08:51

delta0 said:
Economist predict a max of 15% fall.

Takes us back to 2021 prices then :cry:

mburn_83 · 28 Sep 2022 at 08:51

I think most people will manage - but construction and hospitality will be decimated as people are forced to cut back.

This situation highlights how wrong the government got Brexit and Covid.

I would love to know who is profiting the most out this market turmoil.

413x · 28 Sep 2022 at 08:51

delta0 said:
This is the difference between feeling a recession or not.

Everything else you can survive.. Until you lose your job.

Would be bankruptcy for many pretty quickly. This has to be coming. You can't have this amount of fiscal doom without job losses following

CapitalOne · 28 Sep 2022 at 08:51

delta0 said:
This is the difference between feeling a recession or not.

There were a couple of good quotes I remember from 2007/8

"The only way to make money in this market is to write a book"
"A recession is when your neighbour loses his job. A depression is when you both lose your jobs"

Or the like

kona786 · 28 Sep 2022 at 08:52

413x said:
Those mortgage figures are eye-watering

I remember many saying this wouid never happen even @ 4%

delta0 · 28 Sep 2022 at 08:53

200sols said:
Takes us back to 2021 prices then

For us but not for the cash buyers that have had cash held in foreign currencies. They are coming in and see 20-30% discounts already and potentially 40%+ if it does fall.

413x · 28 Sep 2022 at 08:54

kona786 said:
I remember many saying this wouid never happen even @ 4%

No way did I think even a few weeks ago we'd be looking at 5 percent in September!

This is what was forecast for 2023

fez · 28 Sep 2022 at 08:55

mburn_83 said:
I would love to know who is profiting the most out this market turmoil.

I think you know the people that will be profiting from it.

kona786 · 28 Sep 2022 at 08:57

413x said:
No way did I think even a few weeks ago we'd be looking at 5 percent in September!

This is what was forecast for 2023

Yeah things are moving real fast.

Was the forecast 6% base rate so ~8% mortgages in mid 2023?

delta0 · 28 Sep 2022 at 09:00

kona786 said:
Yeah things are moving real fast.

Was the forecast 6% base rate so ~8% mortgages in mid 2023?

Roughly that. 5.5% in July 23 as the peak. (Over 4% by the end of this year)

413x · 28 Sep 2022 at 09:00

kona786 said:
Yeah things are moving real fast.

Was the forecast 6% base rate so ~8% mortgages in mid 2023?

Probably massive job losses, repossessions and a huge swing of wealth from the average to the super rich

I'm now looking at job security as opposed to concern for next 5 years.

kona786 · 28 Sep 2022 at 09:02

delta0 said:
Roughly that. 5.5% in July 23 as the peak. (Over 4% by the end of this year)

Mate is paying 1500 pm on a 350k mortgage @3% due to end in March 2023. Painful.

He's looking @ a 500 - 700 quid rise by the looks of things.

fez · 28 Sep 2022 at 09:02

413x said:
Probably massive job losses, repossessions and a huge swing of wealth from the average to the super rich

I'm now looking at job security as opposed to concern for next 5 years.

On the plus side though, eventually they will have all the wealth and we won't have to worry about it being squirrelled away from us any more.

JamesH85 · 28 Sep 2022 at 09:02

413x said:
Probably massive job losses, repossessions and a huge swing of wealth from the average to the super rich

I think a repossession process takes quite a while right? You could start seeing them Q4 2023? Job losses however will be rolling by Christmas. It's going to be insanely scary to watch.

delta0 · 28 Sep 2022 at 09:04

JamesH85 said:
I think a repossession process takes quite a while right? You could start seeing them Q4 2023? Job losses however will be rolling by Christmas. It's going to be insanely scary to watch.

This winter will be critical. That’s when the recession will bite and losses will happen.

JamesH85 · 28 Sep 2022 at 09:04

kona786 said:
Mate is paying 1500 pm on a 350k mortgage @3% due to end in March 2023. Painful.

He's looking @ a 500 - 700 quid rise by the looks of things.

That increase alone is more than my mortgage. I would hope someone with an already £1500pm mortgage you could afford the increase and you haven't stretched yourself so tightly on such a big monthly payment.

jonneymendoza · 28 Sep 2022 at 09:07

mid_gen said:
Except your mortgage cost has tripled and house prices are heading for a serious correction.

IR35 has not been repealed, it still applies.

The fiscally incontinent budget that promised to borrow vast sums of money to fuel inflation, during an inflationary crisis. Leading to a collapse in the gilt markets, which is getting on for tripling the cost of government borrowing since Truss was expected to become PM. All this weakens the pound, which imports more inflation, which is going to necessitate higher interest rates rises, which is going to slow the economy.

Basically, the entire budget is fantasy ******** that will bankrupt the country, and everyone, I mean everyone except Kwasi Kwarteng and the few remaining people that identify as Conservative rather than think for themselves, know it.

Sterling down again today. Gilt yields up again.

So in other words. We are ******?

McBain · 28 Sep 2022 at 09:08

Banks taking the **** with mortgage rates, standard.

jonneymendoza · 28 Sep 2022 at 09:10

fez said:
I think you know the people that will be profiting from it.

Who?