Moving away from Pentax... Canon, Nikon or Sony?

Sorry bud, no offence meant by me either. The reason I said that is because I can't help but get the impression your defending APSC and calling it the sweet spot, just because Pentax doesn't have any competing solution to competitors competing 35mm bodies.
No quite the opposite, I think APS might be too big too! For me its all about cost and quality. Maybe its a fantasy, but I love the idea of having the quality we expect from a £3k body today, in a £300 body tomorrow.

I love the idea of having all my lenses, every last damn one, in a rucksack.
You justify APSC's being the sweet spot due to manufacturing/yield advantages. Not long ago, I would have agreed, however 35mm can now be fab'ed with a single exposure process, thus greatly improving yields over earlier FF sensors that used multiple mask exposures. Sure APSC will always have a yield advantage due to more die candidates per wafer, but the gap has been drastically reduced. Maybe future sensor technologies will widen the manufacturing gap again, who knows.
I think that so much research thou is coming from portable devices. The main problems with smaller sensor manafacturing are falling by the wayside. I'll use phones. I've been playing with a Lumia 920 lately, and the camera once firmware updated is really surprisingly good. I mean, really good. Compare it to a 300D and kit lens, in terms of noise, a "point and group on ****up" level photo its technically superior. (Also please no one think I'm saying phones with one lens, replace dslrs, this is all about the SENSOR). So much research is been done in this contested space.
Personally I see 4 market segments over the next decade or two:

Consumer camera - Camera phone - Traditional compact sized sensors
Dedicated consumer camera - Compact form factor - APSC/35mm
Pro/serious enthusiast - DSLR - 35mm/48mm
Pro/niche - Large format
You see I kinda aggree, I just see it slipping down a bit, the sucess of mirrorless (yuckie, I can't bring myself to like them...... maybe time will help) I think we've already seen a shift, micro 4/3rds and all that.

Consumer - Camera Phone / Point and Click. Samsung are already showing these two merge.
Prosumer - Bridge - Compact Interchangable Lens, Micro 4/3rds, Maybe smaller.
Serious enthrusiast / pro - DSLR (??mm)
Pro/Fashion - Large, medium or bigger, capture one, hassleblad, h4d type thing.

I would say I think we'll see a shift in price down, which will drive what is only the pro of pros, the richest of peoples cameras down to the serious enthusiast, at least thats what I hope.

I'll try and awnser the rest of the post later, got to run!
 
Sorry bud, no offence meant by me either. The reason I said that is because I can't help but get the impression your defending APSC and calling it the sweet spot, just because Pentax doesn't have any competing solution to 35mm bodies.

You justify APSC's being the sweet spot due to manufacturing/yield advantages. Not long ago, I would have agreed, however 35mm can now be fab'ed with a single exposure process, thus greatly improving yields over earlier FF sensors that used multiple mask exposures. Sure APSC will always have a yield advantage due to more die candidates per wafer, but the gap has been drastically reduced. Maybe future sensor technologies will widen the manufacturing gap again, who knows.

Nikon made the mistake of not jumping on the FF bandwagon, apparently thinking ISO advancements would avoid the need for FF sensors, they failed to take into account the lure of increased DOF control that FF provides. When Canon released their 1D & 5D, Nikon (Pentax/others for that matter) were in trouble as many jumped ship.

If you look at the general market trend, iphones have killed the traditional compact market (a good thing imo). The emphasis is now on squeezing the largest sensor possible into the smallist possible body.
The marketing people are now advertising the bokeh advantages of larger sensors like the RX100 for example.
Sony has only just gone and squeezed a 35mm sensor into a compact sized body. Imo the RX1 is to Sony what the X100 was to Fuji.. a proof of concept. Apparently there is now rumour of other compact micro 4/3 manufacturers taking Sony's cue and now working on squeezing 35mm sensors into compact bodies.
As these larger sensor compact camera's (APSC/35mm) become the norm to the masses, I expect there to be allot of untapped demand from pros wanting an 'edge' over average Joe with his full frame point and shoot. I think we will see DSLR manufactures continue the trend of the rest of the market, and begin to squeeze MF sensors into 35mm sized bodies like Leica has already done.
Imo Sony is in the best position to make this move first rather than Canon or Nikon, and has a real opportunity to eat Canikon's lunch.

Personally I see 4 market segments over the next decade or two:

Consumer camera - Camera phone - Traditional compact sized sensors
Dedicated consumer camera - Compact form factor - APSC/35mm
Pro/serious enthusiast - DSLR - 35mm/48mm
Pro/niche - Large format

To be fair it is not quite that simple, 35mm sensor will always require bigger glass than say m43/cx1" and if you want an optical VF then that needs to be bigger with a bigger sensor as well. The main allure to these mirror-less CSCs is really the small lens possibilities. I picked up an Oly E-PM2 with kit lens and 40-150mm. The 40-150mm is absolutely tiny and weighs a mere 190g.

As much as it is nice to have a 35mm sensor in a tiny body, as soon as you want some reach then the lenses get very big very quickly. I now you like working in the 35-85mm range on 35mm, but most of the public like to have reach to capture their kids playing sports, that quirky squirrel when out in the park, etc. Even the 85mm f/1.8s are pretty damn big relative to the smaller primes that the small m43 systems offer.

We are at a point in technology where even the smaller sized sensor offer image quality that is more than capable of professional results up to print sizes of A3 or more. Previously smaller sensors were fine by consumers but were not capable of hitting the same ballpark.


I do agree that it is unlikely that APS-C will exist in actual DSLRs in the future but will be pushed down into ever capable mirror-less bodies such that you do get a good size advantage versus a FF DSLR. However this might take some time, currently all manufactures sell far more APS_C DSLRs than FF by a couple of orders of magnitude. Mirror-less is kind of growing but not as fast as the mirorless crowd will have you know.


35mm sensor in compact bodies will definitely exist, Nikon would be in a strong position to release a highly capable small body, the AF and processing of the Nikon 1 cameras is very strong and well ahead of the pack.

All camera companies are desperate for growth and continued sales and the only way to achieve either is by making new product categories, cheaper 35mm cameras and 35mm compacts will help to some extent. And cheaper 35mm needs some context, it is probably impossible to make a profitable FF camera for anything less than $1500. The margin on the D600 is pretty tight on a $2000 body. And you really don't want to cut back features and performance more than that (and some like you would argue it has been ct back too much wrt Af layout) because otherwise you have a strange camera that has a sensor aimed at the serious prosumers and pros, but a body for an amateur. Amateurs don't want or need 35mm sensors, they prefer smaller more convenient setups.
 
Sorry for my absence, my body fell ill as soon as I stopped working :( Still worse places to be ill where your not waited on hand and foot by your retired parents :)
To be fair it is not quite that simple, 35mm sensor will always require bigger glass than say m43/cx1" and if you want an optical VF then that needs to be bigger with a bigger sensor as well. The main allure to these mirror-less CSCs is really the small lens possibilities. I picked up an Oly E-PM2 with kit lens and 40-150mm. The 40-150mm is absolutely tiny and weighs a mere 190g.
One thing we do see over time in technology is convergence right?

My PDA is now in my Phone, my Point n Click for taking out when on a stag night, is now my Phone, my game boy is now my Phone.

I think that we will see more and more in the ultra light end of the market, there is clear demand for it. How will this shape the market for cameras as a whole? I think it will drag it to smaller and lighter.

But I also think we will still see something in the higher end, in the same way a friend reminded me just quite how much effort had gone in to making the sound of the door closing on my car pleasing and reasuring; People like a shutter sound!
As much as it is nice to have a 35mm sensor in a tiny body, as soon as you want some reach then the lenses get very big very quickly. I now you like working in the 35-85mm range on 35mm, but most of the public like to have reach to capture their kids playing sports, that quirky squirrel when out in the park, etc. Even the 85mm f/1.8s are pretty damn big relative to the smaller primes that the small m43 systems offer.
If we, for a second remove all existing glass and sensor sizes, how does one go about choosing the size?

1.Quality (Sharpness, Noise)
2.Depth of Field
3...... Thats all I can think of.

Now the larger sensor, the less DoF available without going for a smaller appature. Fine. How many people actually feal limited by 1.8 in APC? Hell, half the time 2.8 is low enough for me. One from a few years back, after I'd just got my f2.8, http://i.imgur.com/hmbvv.jpg guess the appature I took that at, on a APC, I don't think wider would have helped (a nicer background would have, but the light was tricky and anoying me that day.

So as right now most complaints about sensors are due to noise, rather than sharpness. Or rather that is what I seem to see. We could easily see an argument for smaller sensors to allow people the DoF they want, at lower ISO.

All I'm trying to say is bigger, doesn't automatically mean better.

A lot of the features which you can't get in smaller sensor cameras, have no reason to be, for example fps.
We are at a point in technology where even the smaller sized sensor offer image quality that is more than capable of professional results up to print sizes of A3 or more. Previously smaller sensors were fine by consumers but were not capable of hitting the same ballpark.
This. I wish my grandfather was around today, I would buy him an entry level dslr, because its simply amazing the quality now. I was hoping to scan some of his slides but sadly didn't have time. Despite using mostly good quality film, stored properly, the level of detail, the sharpness just can't compete with even the cheapest DSLR from today. An OM1 and Kodachrome slide film if you want a trip down memory lane.
I do agree that it is unlikely that APS-C will exist in actual DSLRs in the future but will be pushed down into ever capable mirror-less bodies such that you do get a good size advantage versus a FF DSLR. However this might take some time, currently all manufactures sell far more APS_C DSLRs than FF by a couple of orders of magnitude. Mirror-less is kind of growing but not as fast as the mirorless crowd will have you know.
I can't compose with mirror less. I dunno why, I just can't, I know this is my failing and probably a lack of trying, but I just needed to say that because I think it might harm my views on them. I also do pretty much exclusively travel photography. I'm used to been only able to see the histogram, then only just, most of the time. So maybe the contries I like to holiday in are to blame for it, but I think I'll always be favouring the SLR.

However I don't think we will see much of FF in mirrorless, unless, that is, they try to make a premium ultra high end mirrorless device. Because as mentioned above, why would someone choose that size? Maybe I think automatically mirrorless cameras are a compromise to size and weight, but I just can't see why someone would choose it, I haven't seen a single RX1 in the wild.
35mm sensor in compact bodies will definitely exist, Nikon would be in a strong position to release a highly capable small body, the AF and processing of the Nikon 1 cameras is very strong and well ahead of the pack.
By compact body, do you mean SLR still? or do you mean RX1 like? Because ultimately I thought everyone said the RX1 image quality just didn't justify its price tag, unless you *really* needed small didn't want interchangable etc.
All camera companies are desperate for growth and continued sales and the only way to achieve either is by making new product categories, cheaper 35mm cameras and 35mm compacts will help to some extent. And cheaper 35mm needs some context, it is probably impossible to make a profitable FF camera for anything less than $1500. The margin on the D600 is pretty tight on a $2000 body. And you really don't want to cut back features and performance more than that (and some like you would argue it has been ct back too much wrt Af layout) because otherwise you have a strange camera that has a sensor aimed at the serious prosumers and pros, but a body for an amateur. Amateurs don't want or need 35mm sensors, they prefer smaller more convenient setups.
I would love to know why the margin is tight on a D600? I'd have thought including R&D costs they were raking it in?

I often find that cameras are similar to buying a car. I drive a boring eco desiel. I live in London, I dodge the C-charge, road tax, hell even the insurance is cheap. When I want to speed, I fly planes, planes are fun, cars are boring. Holding whilst traffic clears can be a great excuse to bunny hop and pull a little bit of G, driving on the M25 honestly makes me want to kill people, its a good think I'm not allowed a gun, at least when I drive. Anyway, buying a car. I want AC, nice seats, I'm 6"4 so I probably want the sports option inside, but seriously I in no way want the bigger engine, its moronic for my lifestyle to get it. However all of the car manafacturers are geared up to sell you the nice trim only with the bigger engines. Try and buy a DS3 eco desiel, with the nice trim and all the toys, the sales person will make you so infurated you end up using a broker instead. Just because I don't want a big engine in my city car, doesn't make me a bad driver, I've driven in 4 continents and will do a track day n keep up with the best of them. However let me buy a desiel mr salesman, and don't think less of me for it.

Cameras I find are the same. I'm at my weight limit. As I type this I've got my 150-500mm sat on the desk because it can't fit in my rucksack (80L!). I want great quality, I've got lots of cash to blow on the hobby. Having a larger full frame kit, would not in any way make me any more pro, it wouldn't make me better.

This is why for me I love having good quality APC-S lenses. I'll happily spend £1k on one. Hell I'd spend £1k extra for it to be lighter so I can take it, because otherwise it spends its life in the wardrobe with silica gell for company whilst the others are out having fun.

I also don't think I'll need to go full frame in the next 10 years. In fact, if I do anything I think it will be smaller.

I suppose its dreaming, but imagine having something smaller than micro 4/3rds, that allowed you to take 500mm bird shots which would print happily at A2, which weighed only 1kg. Then you have your sony RX1 or similar, for when you want some bokeh, hopefully larger than 35mm.

That is what I hope I'll be changing for, that is why I enjoy the DA* primes.

That is also why I get mad as hell when told that you need a full frame to be "pro". Sorry, but some of the best pro's I've seen use cheaper, lower end dslr kit old lenses with adapter rings, and have skill and experiance by the bucket. That is why I'm not one. It's not something I can simply buy.
 
Still loving the D7000, taken some decent shots (for me) over the last week. Today I got hold of a Nikon 35mm f/1.8 DX prim too, so looking forward to trying that baby out. Still plugging away with full manual controls and it's very satisfying to see (slowly but surely) improvements the more familiar I get with everything. It really is such a more intuitive camera than my Pentax was in my hands.

Few samples:

406161_10151138366896330_1380222032_n.jpg
Sorry for my absence, my body fell ill as soon as I stopped working :( Still worse places to be ill where your not waited on hand and foot by your retired parents :)
.

Your posts are interesting, but... how do I put it delicately... any chance you can 'condense' them a little? They are kind of a wee bit long and waffly. :D
 
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I disagree... if it's not noticeably different in IQ (it isn't imo, i've checked hundreds of comparisons) then what counts is the way the camera feels in your hands, the lens range, the future upgrade path, as well as the second hand availability etc.

Pentax just can't compete in that respect.

I know how you feel..
Im a K20d owner, I love the camera, but it's low light performance really sucks, I was in Barcelona over xmas and was getting better pictures from my phone in some cases inside some churches and the whole Pentax flash sync speed drives me up the wall as it makes some shots just impossible.
Having said that, I love the way it feels and the control system just suits me. I need to upgrade and Im seriously looking at a K30, still trying to decide at the moment.
 
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