Niger - intervention by Nigeria/ECOWAS possible wider war in West Africa

dowie

dowie

dowie

Caporegime
Joined
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Posts
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Niger (along with two other West African countries Mali and Burkina Faso) have had coups (thanks Putin/Wagner).

France has evacuated Europeans:
www.bbc.co.uk

Niger coup: Evacuated European nationals arrive in Paris and Rome

It comes amid growing anti-French sentiment, with France's embassy recently coming under attack.
www.bbc.co.uk

The US has partially evacuated its Embassy:
www.bbc.co.uk

Niger: US announces partial evacuation of embassy

Hundreds of foreign nationals have already been evacuated from the country since a coup last week.
www.bbc.co.uk

ECOWAS is mulling an intervention:

Of course, Mali and Burkina Faso (or rather their military dictators) have pledged support for Niger. Guinea seems to be supportive too. Could be interesting to see what Algeria does too. France (and the US/West, in general, might well provide some support to ECOWAS).

More indications of potential ECOWAS intervention here:


An apparent leaked warning order given to Nigerian troops:



Anyway, thought I'd create a separate thread for this as it looks like war is quite possibly about to break out in West Africa with democratic ECOWAS states on one side (quite possibly supported by the West) and three (potentially 4) military dictatorships on the other side supported by Russia/Wagner.
 
Most of these countries are using military gear older than the old stuff Russia is pushing into service in Ukraine... I dunno if active but Nigeria even has Eagle tanks LOL.
 
Minusorange said:

Just what we need, I wonder if it's not just Russia behind all this but China as well
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Tbh even if it is helped along by such parties this sort of conflict was inevitable as there's simply zero hope for stabilising the barely hospitable ecology in these places, it's been brewing for years and would do without any intervention from outside influence. Nigeria is in less danger but having completely destabilised neighbours exporting terrorists into their lands isn't something I'd imagine they'd accept.
 
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Minusorange said:
Just what we need, I wonder if it's not just Russia behind all this but China as well
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China is a military supplier to various entities involved, wonder if they'll pick a side, etc. I'd imagine Russia is going to have a problem with supporting a side with material equipment as well.
 
NOTAMs issued apparently and reports of stuff on the move but unclear as to details.

Doesn't look like an invasion/attack on Niger is imminent but looks like stuff is starting to be built up for possible action.
 
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Looks like ECOWAS was hoping they could bluff the coup leaders into restoring constitutional order doesn't look like they are remotely ready to actually use military force and getting cold feet.
 
At least in terms of stuff like tanks, heavier armour, artillery and aircraft most of these countries can't really sustain a big war, at least not without significant external backing. Though likely no shortage of things like AKs and technicals, etc.
 
Rroff said:
At least in terms of stuff like tanks, heavier armour, artillery and aircraft most of these countries can't really sustain a big war, at least not without significant external backing. Though likely no shortage of things like AKs and technicals, etc.
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Child soldiers too if past African hostilities are anything to go by.
 
My guess would that Nigeria would be supplying the bulk of any ECOWAS forces if they do infact decide to intervene but the presence of the US & French military at a few bases shared with Niger's military could make things very twitchy for ECOWAS as they'd most definitely want to avoid any accidental damage/injuries etc to any US/French troops there.

In the end the life of the average person in Niger isn't going to be improved by this coup or its aftermath and, as always, it's simply the corrupt getting more power/money thats deemed important to those at the top at the end of that day.
 
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