Niger - intervention by Nigeria/ECOWAS possible wider war in West Africa

ECOWAS outnumbered 11:1, they're going to have to throw a few more resources into this fight if it kicks off. The US and France won't get involved, well not unless they're attacked first. And then you have Wagner who would probably try to stir **** up.

G60WlTT.png
 
Malevolence said:
ECOWAS outnumbered 11:1, they're going to have to throw a few more resources into this fight if it kicks off. The US and France won't get involved, well not unless they're attacked first. And then you have Wagner who would probably try to stir **** up.
Click to expand...

Most of those countries can barely put more than 1-2 combat brigades into a fight in terms of proper military equipment (and most of that is older than the stuff Russia is scraping from the bottom of the barrel). Most of them can only field like 1 battalion worth of anything like heavy armour, couple of mechanized battalions and 1-2 artillery groups and that is it. On the other hand as before they likely have plenty of AK type weapons and technicals.

An interesting aspect there might be if Nigeria can get the Eagles back into service - I don't think any other country has anything really equivalent to the tank forces Nigeria on paper could field if it came to it - those old AMX tank destroyers, etc. do not do well in combat.
 
Nigerien Military commander telling the French that they must leave Niger.


Also, the Nigerian Army alone is 160,000+ so, should the ECOWAS "standby force" need back-up, it'll be the Nigerians that do it. The Nigerien military is effectively just a "bush war/insurgency" level force whilst the Nigerian Military is far more organised and equipped for actual military vs military combat with lots of Western training provided, so I know who I'd put my money on, especially if the Coup leaders really do try to force the French out by force.
 
ianh said:
Also, the Nigerian Army alone is 160,000+ so, should the ECOWAS "standby force" need back-up, it'll be the Nigerians that do it. The Nigerien military is effectively just a "bush war/insurgency" level force whilst the Nigerian Military is far more organised and equipped for actual military vs military combat with lots of Western training provided, so I know who I'd put my money on, especially if the Coup leaders really do try to force the French out by force.
Click to expand...

A lot is going to depend on the competency (even with Western support/training) of the commanders and those under their command and the kind of terrain any fighting takes place in. It could be easy for a better equipped Nigerian force to go in a bit gung-ho because they have tanks, etc. and get ambushed, etc.
 
The 1000+ US troops currently in Niger are locked down onto their bases and are separated by enough distance that there's no mutual support so the US is kind of being "forced" into playing a diplomatic waiting game and is therefore having contact with both sides, whilst France has been quite outspoken about the coup so, when combined with Niger's history with the French, it's no surprise that the coup leaders have decided to flex their muscles on the French first, just to see how that goes.

Now with the Wagner Group effectively rudderless, it'll be interesting to see how much influence the Russians will be able to maintain in Niger, especially if conflict between ECOWS and Niger actually breaks out, something that most nations outside of Niger are really pushing to avoid.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom