Niger - intervention by Nigeria/ECOWAS possible wider war in West Africa

explicit4u · 11 Aug 2023 at 22:16

Not sure how ECOWAS come out of this with the public on their side. Lots of opposition to the French in Niger and African countries in general, including the diaspora. They can’t back down as that undermines the coalition but there’s a lot of people claiming that military action panders to the west.

Also hard to see how Niger aligned forces don’t get obliterated, Nigeria alone could probably take them.

Dis86 · 12 Aug 2023 at 08:15

Rroff said:
China is a military supplier to various entities involved, wonder if they'll pick a side, etc. I'd imagine Russia is going to have a problem with supporting a side with material equipment as well.

Why pick a side when you can sell to everyone?

potatolord · 12 Aug 2023 at 15:20

It looks like ECOWAS is now ECOWASn't:

Niger coup: West African countries suspend key military meeting on ‘standby’ force

Meeting meant to brief leaders about ‘best options’ for deploying force to Niger delayed indefinitely for ‘technical reasons’

www.theguardian.com

ianh · 12 Aug 2023 at 19:33

I would guess that the "technical" delay is, in reality, probably about to get all the other ECOWAS countries, rather than just Nigeria, to actually supply any troops/equipment to it's "supposed to be always ready" Standby force, just so it doesn't look like a purely Nigerian invasion instead, and as a small bonus any delay allows for a little more time for a diplomatic solution, not that I think this will end that way sadly.

StriderX · 12 Aug 2023 at 19:36

Nigeria should just conquer Niger, I mean they have 5 of the 7 letters already. In seriousness though it seems logical to me that countries not almost entirely encompassed by the Sahara won't want those that are becoming a source of endless criminal/terrorist/rebel activity, Nigeria has a lot to lose from inaction.

flea.rider · 13 Aug 2023 at 16:37

StriderX said:
Nigeria should just conquer Niger, I mean they have 5 of the 7 letters already. In seriousness though it seems logical to me that countries not almost entirely encompassed by the Sahara won't want those that are becoming a source of endless criminal/terrorist/rebel activity, Nigeria has a lot to lose from inaction.

if nigeria went in it would cost them at home and it would not be a western war bombs planes and infantry .. it would be a constant running war gorilla action like Afghanistan Vietnam a war no one wins in the end ..

StriderX · 13 Aug 2023 at 16:42

flea.rider said:
if nigeria went in it would cost them at home and it would not be a western war bombs planes and infantry .. it would be a constant running war gorilla action like Afghanistan Vietnam a war no one wins in the end ..

That is going to be case regardless of what they do, the only choice here is whether they wait until it spills over into Northern Nigeria or they act now, there is no third choice at this point that has any chance of success.

flea.rider · 13 Aug 2023 at 16:44

StriderX said:
That is going to be case regardless of what they do, the only choice here is whether they wait until it spills over into Northern Nigeria or they act now, there is no third choice at this point that has any chance of success.

when or if it spills over ?
might not be the case ? why would it ?

delta0 · 13 Aug 2023 at 16:46

Africa is pretty ripe for war. Egypt could invade Ethiopia and Sudan at any time.

flea.rider · 13 Aug 2023 at 17:01

delta0 said:
Africa is pretty ripe for war. Egypt could invade Ethiopia and Sudan at any time.

i'd say there is going to be a lot of change i'm sure there sick of the installed governments that the west run and now there smart enough to see and change it .. how can a country have gold and diamond mines and yet be poor ?? it makes no sense to me and there waking up to that fact ..

delta0 · 13 Aug 2023 at 17:07

flea.rider said:
i'd say there is going to be a lot of change i'm sure there sick of the installed governments that the west run and now there smart enough to see and change it .. how can a country have gold and diamond mines and yet be poor ?? it makes no sense to me and there waking up to that fact ..

Whilst it’s good for them to build their own democracies and to be fair they aren’t ruled by western countries but to be controlled by Russia? That’s not going to end well.

flea.rider · 13 Aug 2023 at 17:19

delta0 said:
Whilst it’s good for them to build their own democracies and to be fair they aren’t ruled by western countries but to be controlled by Russia? That’s not going to end well.

are they or did they just employ someone for the job at hand ?

StriderX · 13 Aug 2023 at 17:32

flea.rider said:
i'd say there is going to be a lot of change i'm sure there sick of the installed governments that the west run and now there smart enough to see and change it .. how can a country have gold and diamond mines and yet be poor ?? it makes no sense to me and there waking up to that fact ..

Without stability those resources are as good as useless, you also can't feed people rocks either.

Anyone intelligent enough has already packed their bags and left.

flea.rider · 13 Aug 2023 at 17:34

StriderX said:
Without stability those resources are as good as useless, you also can't feed people rocks either.

Anyone intelligent enough has already packed their bags and left.

and if some western (french)government is stealing them it's the same outcome .. lol to your edit .. there will be smart peoples there .. well i hope ..
as to the rocks .. it could be one of the best grow zones on earth .. as the jet stream moves ... it has been in the past

aVdub · 13 Aug 2023 at 17:41

I'd imagine if it wasn't for one or two of those minerals there, most wouldn't give a **** about this country.

Chuk_Chuk · 13 Aug 2023 at 18:19

flea.rider said:
i'd say there is going to be a lot of change i'm sure there sick of the installed governments that the west run and now there smart enough to see and change it .. how can a country have gold and diamond mines and yet be poor ?? it makes no sense to me and there waking up to that fact ..

Corruption is ripe and plenty. Then you have external companies that decide to abuse the system as well and add to the corruption.

Looking over the situation and history the sad fact is I think a number of those countries do need dictators and or a monarchy to get **** together. Democracy is worthless when a foreign company simply needs to walk in with a bag of money.

They are very young countries in the grand scheme of things.

Richard - London · 14 Aug 2023 at 10:32

flea.rider said:
it could be one of the best grow zones on earth .. as the jet stream moves ... it has been in the past

Unlikely, its getting hot and going to get hotter there. The only thing in the future of that part of the world is death.

flea.rider · 14 Aug 2023 at 17:10

Richard - London said:
Unlikely, its getting hot and going to get hotter there. The only thing in the future of that part of the world is death.

as you can see lots of change .. most of the country is having the same or better rain .. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/africa_rfe/africa_rfe_180day_af_pnorm.gif

potatolord · 14 Aug 2023 at 17:33

It's looking increasingly like outside countries have decided to leave Niger to it.

The whole of the sahel is now on the naughty step.

ianh · 19 Aug 2023 at 21:45

ECOWAS just needs a few more days to assemble its "ready to go at a moments notice" force (2 weeks so far and counting) before it might be/maybe/possibly moving into Niger. It's even created "D-Day" for its assault should diplomacy (in sub-Saharan Africa - LOL) fail!

West Africa's main regional bloc on Friday said it had agreed an undisclosed "D-Day" for a possible military intervention to restore democracy in Niger if diplomatic efforts fail

West African bloc says 'D-Day' set for possible Niger intervention

West Africa's main regional bloc on Friday said it had agreed an undisclosed "D-Day" for a possible military intervention to restore democracy in Niger if diplomatic efforts fail, stressing that it would not hold endless dialogue with the defiant junta.

www.reuters.com