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Picture of AMD ''Cayman'' Prototype Surfaces

Soldato
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Seems odd they would have a full rename 5xxx to 6xxx for limited performance improvement.

Pfft... If it will shift more cards, they will rename them. Simple business sense.

Nvidia are not releasing a "new generation" of cards, and are largely out of sync from ATI (sorry... AMD) with their releases. Big change or not, it makes sense for AMD to rename the cards to imply a new generation. Nvidia have done this many times as well (9800-series anyone?)
 
Soldato
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Yeah I get that already :p Until now AMD/ATI have (largely) not done this, so seems a little illogical, although AMD pull their fair of marketting tricks (just normally to the financial sector though lol).
 
Associate
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Who knows...

This is what I am expecting though (small increase in performance via a clockspeed bump, and an improvement to power efficiency). I'm not expecting any real architectural changes, but we will have to wait and see.

isnt the whole point of southern islands that its a new architecture?
 
Soldato
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isnt the whole point of southern islands that its a new architecture?

A "new architecture" is whatever you say it is. A few minor changes are sufficient to be considered "new". If you want them to be.

Look, I'm not trying to say there will be no major changes. It could be a massive deviation from r800, or maybe it could have an extra 400 shaders. Who knows. I'm simply stating what I expect, and I don't think that the naming convention, or the fact that it has its codename, has anything to do with it.

I HOPE it's a big improvement. I like progress. I just get the impression that AMD is focusing development efforts on the next generation, when they will have the luxury of a 28nm process.
 
Soldato
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I think the current thought is that it's going to be a kind of half-generation and the top end single GPU card should be something like ~30%-ish faster than the 5870 or there about.

So in that case the top end single GPU should be about 45% faster than a 5850 on stock settings as 5870 is about 15% faster than 5850? That would be impressive:cool:.
 
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I think the current thought is that it's going to be a kind of half-generation and the top end single GPU card should be something like ~30%-ish faster than the 5870 or there about.

there is no current thought

nobody has a clue if they will be less than 5% faster than the equivalent or over 30% faster
 
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A "new architecture" is whatever you say it is. A few minor changes are sufficient to be considered "new". If you want them to be.

Look, I'm not trying to say there will be no major changes. It could be a massive deviation from r800, or maybe it could have an extra 400 shaders. Who knows. I'm simply stating what I expect, and I don't think that the naming convention, or the fact that it has its codename, has anything to do with it.

I HOPE it's a big improvement. I like progress. I just get the impression that AMD is focusing development efforts on the next generation, when they will have the luxury of a 28nm process.

fair enough suppose no one really knows yet not even the review sites
 
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Charlie Demerjian said:
Lets start out by saying we got something very wrong at SemiAccurate....

I'm lost for words.

On a more serious note you do have wonder how long it will be until Nvidia turns things around in the consumer video card market, it's been years since that have had a financial cash cow top end product. A lot of the 8000 series were defective, it was rumoured that Nvidia struggled to make any kind of money out of the GT200 line especially in the last 12 months of it's life and sales of it's top end 480 have been anaemic an the 470 has seen it's retail price slashed by 27% in the space of a few months just to be competitive. Unless Nvidia need to seriously get with the times as realise they are no longer competing against a company that follows the same doctrine as they are and change their design philosophy as there trying to compete against efficiency with pure muscle and it isn't working.
 
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Caporegime
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I'm sure semi is Dunkenmaster.

Who the hell is Dunkenmaster?


Either way, its got new shaders, and a new rop/tmu/uncore setup, if Intel or AMD release a CPU with changed intergers, fpu, and core logic, its a new architecture.

The thing with gpu's though is, 90% of performance improvement simply comes from the number of transistors being used, 10% comes from improved architecture(ok sometimes more, sometimes a lot less).

The 5870 is literally twice as fast as a 4890 in Metro 2033, and its got twice the shaders and twice the rops, not double everything else, its a game that scales quite literally perfectly on the 5870 card over the previous gen. The shaders, bus, rops/tmu's, its almost identical except for the simple fact it has twice the amount of the major things in the gpu, and this came at the cost of twice the number of transistors.

If you can't come close to doubling the transistor count, you aren't going to be bumping the performance up by double.

Yes, theres exceptions, we've had threads on this, after a big architecture change, and several subsequent rushed fixes(2900xt/3870) then there can be a huge amount of scope for saving die space and increasing efficiency dramatically, but when you've got an already very efficient architecture(and seeing as a 5870 is 10% smaller than a 460gtx and smashed is, its far far more efficient than Nvidia's current gen) then theres not a huge amount to gain there.

My guess would be, roughly speaking, 10% performance bump from architectural changes, 15% increase from extra transistors being used for more shaders/rops/tmu's and another 10% coming from saving a little die size as the process is marginally less erratic with things like transistor size and just being able to place transistors more optimally.
 
Soldato
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I'm lost for words.

On a more serious note you do have wonder how long it will be until Nvidia turns things around in the consumer video card market, it's been years since that have had a financial cash cow top end product. A lot of the 8000 series were defective, it was rumoured that Nvidia struggled to make any kind of money out of the GT200 line especially in the last 12 months of it's life and sales of it's top end 480 have been anaemic an the 470 has seen it's retail price slashed by 27% in the space of a few months just to be competitive. Unless Nvidia need to seriously get with the times as realise they are no longer competing against a company that follows the same doctrine as they are and change their design philosophy as there trying to compete against efficiency with pure muscle and it isn't working.

But at least for them their top end single gpu card IS faster. They need a Core2Duo moment!!
 
Caporegime
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I'm lost for words.

On a more serious note you do have wonder how long it will be until Nvidia turns things around in the consumer video card market, it's been years since that have had a financial cash cow top end product. A lot of the 8000 series were defective, it was rumoured that Nvidia struggled to make any kind of money out of the GT200 line especially in the last 12 months of it's life and sales of it's top end 480 have been anaemic an the 470 has seen it's retail price slashed by 27% in the space of a few months just to be competitive. Unless Nvidia need to seriously get with the times as realise they are no longer competing against a company that follows the same doctrine as they are and change their design philosophy as there trying to compete against efficiency with pure muscle and it isn't working.

Yup, many people have been saying this for 2 years, though its not entirely just efficiency they are fighting. Efficiency is fantastic, it lets you produce the same performance in a smaller size, the key thing though is AMD are willing to sacrifice the very very best performance to keep the cards cheap. In business terms, a company selling 5million cards at £200 with a slime profit will do MUCH better than a company selling 100k £400 cards with only a little more profit.

Cheaper cards sell more, more people can afford a cheaper card, and more people will upgrade more often, when they are cheaper.

THe other upside is volume sales increase sales of your other cards at the same time. IF Dell decide because they are £200, instead of £300, to get 2million 5850's instead of 2million 470gtx's(at launch pricing) then thats 2 million sales gained, but because they are already buying so many AMD cards, they'll be more likely to buy AMD midrange, and low end cards, which will grab them another 10 million sales.

Nvidia lose at every pricepoint, and the industry is ruled by pricepoints. I'll buy a card(given value for its performance, ie a 470gtx now, yes, a 480gtx 55% more for 10% more performance, no) but Dell, HP, Apple, etc, etc who buy in the 10million + range a year, do EVERYTHING by price points, everything. They'll get a card because it fits in to a $300 computer, and they'll buy a different card and cpu, mobo, memory because it fits into a $400 computer, and so on and so on.

Thats why AMD has stolen millions of those sales in the last couple years.

Nvidia needs a core on par size and performance wise with AMD because Dell and co account for 99.999% of their profits, us forum enthusiasts, make no difference on their financial results at all.

A 470gtx is a truly great card at near enough £200, its great when cards get EOL'd and we get silly prices, but if Nvidia only sold 470gtx's, they'd be bankrupt in a couple months, if they could only sell cards at a massive loss, or any company could only sell products at a loss, they'd be in trouble.
 
Soldato
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A "new architecture" is whatever you say it is. A few minor changes are sufficient to be considered "new". If you want them to be.

Look, I'm not trying to say there will be no major changes. It could be a massive deviation from r800, or maybe it could have an extra 400 shaders. Who knows. I'm simply stating what I expect, and I don't think that the naming convention, or the fact that it has its codename, has anything to do with it.

I HOPE it's a big improvement. I like progress. I just get the impression that AMD is focusing development efforts on the next generation, when they will have the luxury of a 28nm process.

The amount of change if minor or major is neither good or bad, that depends on if the change is in the right direction.
Fermi was a fairly major change wasn't it?

At the end of the day, minor changes are all that is needed for RV870, I would much rather predictable incremental performance rather than they take too much of a risk and **** up the architecture that delays the products 6 months and underwhelms when it finally get's released.
 
Soldato
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But at least for them their top end single gpu card IS faster. They need a Core2Duo moment!!

Agreed, Intel had to sallow their pride and admit they got it wrong and AMD got it right but with that they were able turn things round again. Until Nvidia has a major rethink about what it wants from it's consumer graphics division they will find it hard to make money from the market (or at least the sort of returns they have enjoyed in the past).

THe other upside is volume sales increase sales of your other cards at the same time. IF Dell decide because they are £200, instead of £300, to get 2million 5850's instead of 2million 470gtx's(at launch pricing) then thats 2 million sales gained, but because they are already buying so many AMD cards, they'll be more likely to buy AMD midrange, and low end cards, which will grab them another 10 million sales.

Nvidia lose at every pricepoint, and the industry is ruled by pricepoints. I'll buy a card(given value for its performance, ie a 470gtx now, yes, a 480gtx 55% more for 10% more performance, no) but Dell, HP, Apple, etc, etc who buy in the 10million + range a year, do EVERYTHING by price points, everything. They'll get a card because it fits in to a $300 computer, and they'll buy a different card and cpu, mobo, memory because it fits into a $400 computer, and so on and so on.

Nvidia needs a core on par size and performance wise with AMD because Dell and co account for 99.999% of their profits, us forum enthusiasts, make no difference on their financial results at all.


True but the the problem is if you get into bed with companies like Dell and HP I would imagine it's a bit like me making bread and jumping into bed with Tesco sure I can sell loads as Tesco has the distribution and supermarkets but those ******** will beat me down on price until I make virtually nothing.
 
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Soldato
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Yup but as mentioned, volume sales win big bucks even with diminishing returns.

Its about making profit, because that is the reason for the business. Nvidia thought PC Gaming market was dieing angled it video products for the gpgpu space and did well, but, it's still a developing market. They let go of the main goal.

Now, had PC Gaming plunged, AMD would not be sitting so pretty right now. (I am not so naive to think gaming makes the most sales, basic boxes with oem cards do for add in cards.)
 
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