But think about it more easily than that, GM204 400mm^2, GM200 600mm^2, GM206 227mm^2. You need good product separation in terms of size, 314mm^2 is honestly just way to close to 220mm^2, 180-190mm^2 makes a hell of a lot more sense if you're spreading your chips around the price/performance brackets. The only unknown would be GP108, there is only so small you can get while having any worthwhile performance because a higher percentage of the core is taken up by non gaming things the smaller a core gets. I can't see GP108 being smaller than 100mm^2 regardless of GP106 size because video block, display output blocks, all need to be there and are basically the same size in GP108 as they will be in GP102.
Anyway as you say estimates I've seen put it around the 190mm^2 mark and that makes the most sense when considering the the die size of the next chip up. You've got to think about memory as well, it doesn't make much sense to have a 256bit bus on GP106 so the rumour of 192bit makes sense, gddr5x doesn't make sense for GP106 though, so how much bandwidth can it have 60% of what Gp104 gets with gddr5x... now anyone want to guess what 60% of 314mm^2 is, 189mm^2. I would say, yeah, 190mm^2 makes a heck of a lot of sense for GP106.