Recession?

ghost101 said:
But who cares about some arbitrary definition of a recession? You have to judge the impact on an individual basis.
Click to expand...

This gets lost on the media. Loose your job at anytime is difficult, recession or otherwise. This recession has been on the cards for 5, 6 years or so, sort of feel sorry for those that got caught in the 'must buy a house trap', but on the other hand sort of want to say 'Told you so'.
 
Last edited:
ghost101 said:
But who cares about some arbitrary definition of a recession? You have to judge the impact on an individual basis.
Click to expand...

Agree, but the problem with a recession is the mass panic that accompanies it. FTSE100 companies only make £1bn profit instead of £1.5bn, and think "OMG our profitz are down by a third! - we'd better make make hundreds of people unemployed". People read about this in the news and think "OMG I might get made redundant, better start saving my money instead of spending it", which means further falls in companies profits. All it takes is a few months of no bad news and things start to get back to normal - unfortunately the irresponsible media is spinning all news as bad right now.
 
There are genuine reasons for the fall in spending though - petrol for example is really expensive, so you have people avoiding expensive gas-guzzling cars, or avoiding driving so much. The higher cost of oil also pretty much means transportation will be expensive, and goods will cost more to reflect this. It snowballs into less consumer spending. It's true that recession is accompanied by typical fearmongering and panic, but that alone isn't enough to send a first world country's economy into two quarterly slowdowns.
 
Can some please explain to me why do we seem to be the only country actually in a recession? Germany are a flat rate and many of the other G7 members are starting to show growth again.

EDIT - Poor choice of words, only country to forecast an imminent recession
 
Last edited:
KNiVES said:
I've sold my Daihatsu 4v4 and bought a 1.2 liter Clio, which is one example of responding to recession
Click to expand...

Recessions are often characterised by knee-jerk, ill-thought out actions like this - it does however means smart people can pick up reasonable bargains during periods of economic decline.
 
dbappa said:
Can some please explain to me why do we seem to be the only country actually in a recession? Germany are a flat rate and many of the other G7 members are starting to show growth again.
Click to expand...

We aren't in a recession (yet). I'm pretty sure that Italy is though, so we won't be the only ones.

I'd be interested to see your source on G7 economic growth? The only one I'm aware of is the USA's recent GDP growth, which is a result of aggressive interest rate cuts. Something I hope the BoE will imitate.
 
LordSplodge said:
The only country in Europe forecasted to go into recession is us. Makes you proud, doesn't it? :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
It does when our previous growth far outweighed all others. When you take a longer term view on it, we're ahead of the game.
 
What recession?

Remortgaged two weeks ago - 75% LTV - house was valued @ £9000 more than last year or 7%. Cheaper tracker rate than two years ago as well.

4.7% pay rise as well.

Take a look at some house prices in Scotland - still going up.

I think it's more of a "levelling" situation rather than a recession. House prices might be hit quite hard where the have been traditionally high (i.e. south coast, mid communter belt - Cambridgeshire etc) but are doing ok where they they have been traditionally cheaper (i.e. Wales, North West etc).
 
scorza said:
We aren't in a recession (yet). I'm pretty sure that Italy is though, so we won't be the only ones.

I'd be interested to see your source on G7 economic growth? The only one I'm aware of is the USA's recent GDP growth, which is a result of aggressive interest rate cuts. Something I hope the BoE will imitate.
Click to expand...

C4 news last night;

US was showing 0.9% & 0.7%
France something like 0.2% & 0.6%
Germany 0% & 0.1%
UK -0.3% and -0.4%

Two figures are two quarters (Q3 2008 and Q4 2008 respectively).

Here is the report
 
Last edited:
dbappa said:
Can some please explain to me why do we seem to be the only country actually in a recession? Germany are a flat rate and many of the other G7 members are starting to show growth again.
Click to expand...

Germany are a flat rate? What does that mean?

German GDP QoQ came in at -0.5%, Italy at -0.3%, French -0.3% and UK was 0.0%.

We aren't techcally in a recession, though that may be determined differently later. The data out in August was up until end of June so there is a lag and people are guessing/assuming.

In the UK, Mortgage approvals are down as is the housing market, growth is poor, inflation is high, interest rates are staying put...so we are heading into a recession at some point by the looks of it.

Re the US, the rebate cheques sent out by the Gov boosted the GDP data. Also, inflation has shot up in US, yet inflation used in GDP calculation dropped.....figure that one out!
 
amigafan2003 said:
Remortgaged two weeks ago - 75% LTV - house was valued @ £9000 more than last year or 7%. Cheaper tracker rate than two years ago as well.
Click to expand...

I just re-mortgaged and had to go from 4.9% to 6.2%. No big deal given the current lending problems and rates (We paid no fees, fixed for five years) and only results in an increase of £80 per month.

Waiting on work to back pay for a 3.5% (unless the union says no - again!) pay rise from April.

Shopping costs a bit more, energy costs a bit more but nothing that really has an impact.

All in all these economic bad times are not (yet at least) effecting me or my family and thankfully I work in the Public Sector and the wife in a companie that sells to rich people around the world we shouldn't have to worry about job security.

Those in the banking sector, retail, construction or who fell into the property game may well be a little more hot under the collar, so to speak.
 
Energy increases wont hit until Q4/Q1 2009, same with food productions costs, grain prices are increasing even more so with the recent wet weather due to drying costs etc, these will be passed onto the consumer
 
topshot said:
Energy increases wont hit until Q4/Q1 2009, same with food productions costs, grain prices are increasing even more so with the recent wet weather due to drying costs etc, these will be passed onto the consumer
Click to expand...

The BBC reported in a Panorama special that the food "crisis" is due to end soon with the Asian rice and Chinese grain harvest due to come in.
 
KNiVES said:
Nice one! That's a pretty big rise.
icon14.gif
Especially difficult to get right now too.
Click to expand...

Why got 6% at my previous place and I moved on for a pay rise.. Not what My Darling wants, but tough...

I'm spending less too anyway, decided to be tight on the money
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom