Ref Gibbo Update on 3080 Shipping

[Graeme Hind]

Hi,

Why is there a suggestion that anyone over a specific queue position should consider cancelling?

I am 294 in the 3080 tuf non oc queue, over 50 has been suggested to cancel their order... why would i do this when i cannot purchase the GPU anywhere else anyway?

 

[Captain_Bosh]

The obvious answer is they will be unlikely to get their order anytime soon.

 

[Graeme Hind]

You say that it is obvious, but when will i be able to get a 3080 anywhere near the price i paid otherwise? The answer is, i will not...

My reason for asking would be to find out from someone who actually has information, is this in anticipation of the tuf 3080 non oc line being discontinued and not actually ever being able to receive the order. In this case, yes it would be advisable to cancel, otherwise i think ill just hang in there.

 

[toString]

If you're 294 in the queue now, what were you when you joined the queue? And when.. You might be able to work out how long it'll take..

 

[montymint]

I imagine if @Gibbo is recommending you cancel it's probably because theres zero ETA for any stock past the next 50 coming in.

 

[Graeme Hind]

If you're 294 in the queue now, what were you when you joined the queue? And when.. You might be able to work out how long it'll take..

1039 -> 294. I dont think it is fair to extrapolate vs past supply as there have been consistent developments in external factors which have made this unpredictable. It seems to be truly, how long is a piece of string.

I imagine if @Gibbo is recommending you cancel it's probably because theres zero ETA for any stock past the next 50 coming in.

I get that, but there has been little idea of any incoming ETA on any units of these cards, why would i cancel now if there has not been an indication that a product line cancellation is imminent?

 

[robfosters]

Just don’t cancel. You can carry on looking elsewhere as Overclockers will refund you at any time if you can lay your hands on one.

 

[Gibbo]

Hi,

Why is there a suggestion that anyone over a specific queue position should consider cancelling?

I am 294 in the 3080 tuf non oc queue, over 50 has been suggested to cancel their order... why would i do this when i cannot purchase the GPU anywhere else anyway?

Surely it is quite obvious and simple to work out?

In 9 months since launch, Asus have shipped us 260 units, from what I can gather this is a strong number in the UK. So with 1002 back orders remaining based on this rate of shipping you are looking at three years until Asus may fulfill all the orders and as the product won't be around in three years time, it is just simple mathematics and my twenty plus years experience in the industry that Asus are unlikely to all of a sudden ship us 1000 cards at best we can maybe hope for 50-100 maximum throughout the rest of this year I suspect unless a miracle happens, like lots of people in front of you cancel, mining dies off totally, Covid completely goes away and the world recovers. Right now with shortages, demand, miners, scalpers getting a GPU is not just hard, its very hard.

You can leave your order on, but its my gut feeling Asus won't ship the volume required and the product will no doubt be EOL in a year or thereabouts.

Try to buy a card, any brand, anywhere you can, then cancel, but if the time comes and we have to cancel all the orders, people just need to remember they could and can cancel anytime they wish. With all Asus cards on back order there is also no upgrade path and don't say 3080Ti because the volumes won't even make a dent into 3080 backorder queues Asus have.

 

[Graeme Hind]

Just don’t cancel. You can carry on looking elsewhere as Overclockers will refund you at any time if you can lay your hands on one.

That is my thinking, i am not actively looking elsewhere for as similar card as the situation is dire no matter where you look but i suppose my question was to see if there had been information relating to any product line cancellation imminent which should prompt me to ask for a refund rather than wait it out for a few weeks only to be cancelled.

 

[turbot1984]

Just don’t cancel. You can carry on looking elsewhere as Overclockers will refund you at any time if you can lay your hands on one.

£700+ is a bunch of money to a lot of people thinking of summer hols etc.

 

[HangTime]

Just stay in the queue, it could be a case of restock prices increasing meaning their backorders will be relatively less profitable to fulfil (tbh I don't know how it works, does the wholesaler need to supply at a historic price or not?), so they probably aren't that concerned about losing the custom, plus you've obviously got a long wait ahead of you.

^edit: Obviously as above if people can't afford to have the money locked away somewhere that's a different story.

 

[Graeme Hind]

Surely it is quite obvious and simple to work out?

In 9 months since launch, Asus have shipped us 260 units, from what I can gather this is a strong number in the UK. So with 1002 back orders remaining based on this rate of shipping you are looking at three years until Asus may fulfill all the orders and as the product won't be around in three years time, it is just simple mathematics and my twenty plus years experience in the industry that Asus are unlikely to all of a sudden ship us 1000 cards at best we can maybe hope for 50-100 maximum throughout the rest of this year I suspect unless a miracle happens.

You can leave your order on, but its my gut feeling Asus won't ship the volume required and the product will no doubt be EOL in a year or thereabouts.

Try to buy a card, any brand, anywhere you can, then cancel, but if the time comes and we have to cancel all the orders, people just need to remember they could and can cancel anytime they wish. With all Asus cards on back order there is also no upgrade path and don't say 3080Ti because the volumes won't even make a dent into 3080 backorder queues Asus have.

Why so standoffish to a paying customer? I have not broken any forum rules or deliberately caused offense or dissent. My post was to primarily query if there had been a product line discontinuation.

 

[Gibbo]

£700+ is a bunch of money to a lot of people thinking of summer hols etc.

This but if people want to leave their order on, that is also fine, miracles can and do happen, but the chances are extremely slim. OcUK is going nowhere so people can of course get their money back, but at the same time if we have to mass cancel all these back orders in the future, customers need to be aware we advise they cancel and made it easy to do so.

 

[Gibbo]

Why so standoffish to a paying customer? I have not broken any forum rules or deliberately caused offense or dissent. My post was to primarily query if there had been a product line discontinuation.

It is not stand off'ish it just basic mathermatics, sorry if that offends.

Asus have not discontinued any lines, but as can be seen the volumes shipped are really poor against the amount of back orders outstanding which in turn could mean a very long wait.

Also look at NVIDIA historic run period for GPU's they trend to be 18 months or there abouts, sometimes product last longer so based on that the 3080 will probably only be around another year maximum and of course we already know they are releasing LHR versions but so far we have not seen any large volumes on those to get us excited and zero from Asus.

Only MSI and Zotac have EOL models so far.

All of our group companies throughout the world are reportring the same, very little stock incoming and still lots of back orders waiting.

 

[robfosters]

Why are the chances extremely slim? They must be producing new graphics cards every day. They can’t have simply stopped making them.

Is the problem that the distributors are now charging so much for a card that you would simply lose too much money if you bought to fulfil a prepaid back order?

Sorry, posts overlapped

 

[Graeme Hind]

£700+ is a bunch of money to a lot of people thinking of summer hols etc.

I get that my opinion might be different from anyone else, however, the money i spent on the GPU is money that i had budgeted for a past expense. I am not reliant on the money that i have spent for anything else, i would be happy to patiently wait to see how this pans out... 700 is better than 1500 at best, and id rather not play into the hands of scalpers.

It is not stand off'ish it just basic mathermatics, sorry if that offends.

Asus have not discontinued any lines, but as can be seen the volumes shipped are really poor against the amount of back orders outstanding which in turn could mean a very long wait.

Also look at NVIDIA historic run period for GPU's they trend to be 18 months or there abouts, sometimes product last longer so based on that the 3080 will probably only be around another year maximum and of course we already know they are releasing LHR versions but so far we have not seen any large volumes on those to get us excited and zero from Asus.

Only MSI and Zotac have EOL models so far.

All of our group companies throughout the world are reportring the same, very little stock incoming and still lots of back orders waiting.

I agree that it can be considered basic mathematics in a way when you have all of the facts, i do not. I understand that you have a lot of experience in the industry, however we are in an unprecedented situation with a global pandemic, as the situation improves, so could the supply. Im sure many of us have felt this in our areas of expertise where areas that we could have previously used our experience and expertise has proved impossible due to unpredictability of the situation.

 

[LtMatt]

Hi,

Why is there a suggestion that anyone over a specific queue position should consider cancelling?

I am 294 in the 3080 tuf non oc queue, over 50 has been suggested to cancel their order... why would i do this when i cannot purchase the GPU anywhere else anyway?

How long have you been waiting?

 

[Graeme Hind]

How long have you been waiting?

The day after launch (9 Months), not an issue for me being patient. Sure it would be lovely to have a brand new shiny GPU but really, it would be the cherry on the cake at the moment given the global situation.

 

[Gibbo]

Why are the chances extremely slim? They must be producing new graphics cards every day. They can’t have simply stopped making them.

Is the problem that the distributors are now charging so much for a card that you would simply lose too much money if you bought to fulfil a prepaid back order?

Sorry, posts overlapped

I buy every card I am offered irrelevant of price, irrelevant of how much money we loose, the fact is every single 3080 back orders loses money, this is not a problem for us, the problem is the stock is simple not coming through the UK channel in any decent volume.

I also see the volumes in Germany, Spain, Eastern Europe, Australia and Taiwan, as we also own companies operating in those regions and it is the exact same problem in those regions too. The problem is these times are unprecidented to have such huge demand, at least ten fold over previous times, like the last mining boom, this time round its vastly different, mining boom is even bigger, but then the general demand from the end user is also vastly greater, then add in more and more corporate companies now also wanting these products too, then factor in the huge scalping market that has come about since Covid and it has created the biggest demand levels ever witnessed and the supply chanins simply cannot cope, also remember that these days those same product lines are also required for other products as well.

The only solution is more fab factories which won't be online until 2023 onwards.

 

[Graeme Hind]

I buy every card I am offered irrelevant of price, irrelevant of how much money we loose, the fact is every single 3080 back orders loses money, this is not a problem for us, the problem is the stock is simple not coming through the UK channel in any decent volume.

I also see the volumes in Germany, Spain, Eastern Europe, Australia and Taiwan, as we also own companies operating in those regions and it is the exact same problem in those regions too. The problem is these times are unprecidented to have such huge demand, at least ten fold over previous times, like the last mining boom, this time round its vastly different, mining boom is even bigger, but then the general demand from the end user is also vastly greater, then add in more and more corporate companies now also wanting these products too, then factor in the huge scalping market that has come about since Covid and it has created the biggest demand levels ever witnessed and the supply chanins simply cannot cope, also remember that these days those same product lines are also required for other products as well.

The only solution is more fab factories which won't be online until 2023 onwards.

So what you are saying is.... its not a simple mathematical calculation

 

[Gibbo]

I get that my opinion might be different from anyone else, however, the money i spent on the GPU is money that i had budgeted for a past expense. I am not reliant on the money that i have spent for anything else, i would be happy to patiently wait to see how this pans out... 700 is better than 1500 at best, and id rather not play into the hands of scalpers.




I agree that it can be considered basic mathematics in a way when you have all of the facts, i do not. I understand that you have a lot of experience in the industry, however we are in an unprecedented situation with a global pandemic, as the situation improves, so could the supply. Im sure many of us have felt this in our areas of expertise where areas that we could have previously used our experience and expertise has proved impossible due to unpredictability of the situation.

We all wish Covid would go away, but lets face it with lock down eased how long until its out of control again, I think it will be a miracle if we don't have another lock down this Winter with the new variants especially if they are as deadly and more transmissive as the press makes out. The shortages are becoming more widespread at the moment, don't really seem to be easing and if all fabs are now at max capacity how long until one has some epic failure or natural disaster strikles.

The solution is more factories because my gut feeling is levels of demand have increased across the board, so if Covid and mining goes away tomorrow though supply would improve the shelfs won't be piled high as to speak.