Thats a theory, nothing more, theres entirely no proof of that and logically speaking it makes entirely no sense.
The chances of things evolving to do anything are fairly small, the chances of something evolving to be more deadly is a very specific change and a massively longer shot.
A more communicable disease will most likely spread to more people, meaning more being produced in each person, but quite possibly a smaller chance of evolving into something worse.
Woah, woah, woah, I completely missed this the first time around. just, what?! ...
what?!
Absolute
rubbish! The strain that is the fastest at replicating (in terms of the length of time from infecting an individual until viruses can leave that individual) will give the greatest virulence and will
always be selected for. This is so fundamental to influenza evolution I'm absolutely
astounded that you are trying to counter this, to the point where I'm now struggling to take your posts seriously.
Because of the speed of this flu, it will essentially burn itself out much quicker, in months rather than years and years, which probably gives it less chance to mutate into something worse.
Again, speed of transmission in flu directly correlates with virulence and the stress on the human body (yes, I completely understand there are other attributes that contribute to transmission, but this is one of them which is important). A virus doesn't care if it burns itself out, it will be selected to be as harmful as possible to the extend where it can be transmitted. This is why myxomatosis strains are always extremely virulent. In other words, the most virulent virus is always selected for providing that the virulence is not so extreme that it prevents transmission.
Evolution is a chance for something to grow/reproduce slightly differently. Theres just as much chance the next strain will be less communicable, and less deadly as there is for it to become more deadly
Oh my god. I cannot
believe the authority in which you said that,
absolute rubbish! I can only conclude you have little understanding of influenza evolution - you would get a bit fat fail in an exam writing what you just did. The virus which is the fastest at replication and preparation for transmission is always selected for thus virulence and stress on the human body will increase - I cannot believe you are suggesting that a virus would be selected to be less virulent!
NOTE - I'm not saying we will see a repeat of 1918, I completely agree that the death rate will be relatively low and that there is the chance that people do have pre-existing immunity to H1N1, but I cannot agree with your stance on the selection for severity.