Taiwan and China thread.

I think the 1 child policy thing is over blown. Whether they have 1.4bil now or 1bil people, it is still a lot more men than Taiwan and the US combined, and then doubled.
 
Grim5 said:
The US is right now at war with Venezuela and bombing it so news doesn't care much about China atm
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Not really - I mean that could change if there is a civil war there but it doesn't seem to be the case yet.

If anything getting Venezuela under US influence is a big problem for China (who ironically were just having a meeting with the dictator only hours before US Law enforcement arrested him) - it's a potential source of oil/oil products that can be cut off from them in the event they go to war, likewise the Middle East can be cut off to them and there's also the possibility now of regime change in Iran too.

Big issue for Russia too but that's for another thread - so if this Venezuelan thing works out then Taiwan may well be safe for a bit longer (or at least if the Chinese planners were considering a prolonged conventional war with the US was a strong possibility as that’s now less feasible for them in a world where they can have such resources cut off).
 
Raymond Lin said:
I think the 1 child policy thing is over blown. Whether they have 1.4bil now or 1bil people, it is still a lot more men than Taiwan and the US combined, and then doubled.
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It’s not about numbers, its about civil unrest, that 1 child needs to provide for his or her’s family, if they were to invade lots of causalities and lots of unhappy families who will be hungry for several reasons.
 
Raymond Lin said:
I think the 1 child policy thing is over blown. Whether they have 1.4bil now or 1bil people, it is still a lot more men than Taiwan and the US combined, and then doubled.
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I don't think you understand the issue it presents, it's not about them having more men than the US, the issue is the skewed demographics in future, having fewer workers relative to their elderly population and the economic issues associated with that directly impact their economy and indirectly their ability to wage war. Secondary to that is the issue that in such a situation they're far more sensitive to casualties too.
 
One of the curious things with China - they've put quite a lot of resources lately into developing towards the border with India including diverting efforts that were being used to support the build up of capabilities for a potential invasion of Taiwan - with a big roll out of transport, especially road, networks and military bases. Part of this seems to be related to an effort for China to build influence with India's neighbours but at the same time lately the relationship between China and India has been more productive.
 
ubersonic said:
It's kind of crazy it's been nearly six months since this thread had an update but I guess the news is more concerned with Ukraine and Russia's threat to Europe.

Anyway I got a chance over Christmas to catch up with a buddy who still works in the defence sector and one thing we discussed was how there seems to be almost zero media coverage about China's carrier build-up, or about how officials in Washington/etc are reacting to it. I had always found it puzzling there seemed to be little reporting on it over here but I didn't realise that it was a universal thing.

For those who are unaware of what I am referring to, if you look up info on China's aircraft carriers in the mainstream news, YouTube, military sites, etc they will mostly all tell you the same thing: That China has two carriers based on 1980s Soviet designs, fitted with Chinese J-15s (copies of Soviet era Su-33 jets, a type which Russia/India replaced with MiG-29Ks), and that they are hoping to get a third carrier based off the Ulyanovsk class finished by 2030. And it is all a complete fallacy, ignoring several important points:
  • They don't have two carriers, they have six.
  • They are not on course to have three complete by 2030, they are on course to have 10-15 complete by 2030.
  • The J-15 is not a copy of a Soviet era Su-33, its airframe is based on a prototype Su-33 that Ukraine sold to China but all of it's components are modern and it is vastly superior to the MiG-29K Russia/India replaced their Su-33s with.
  • The J-15 isn't the future of their carriers, they are in the process of replacing it with the J-35, a fifth gen fighter.
On paper they have two Kuznetsov class carriers and are building a third based on the design of the incomplete Ulyanovsk class, but this is misleading. They have two carriers (Liaoning and Shandong) which are based on the hull config of a Kuznetsov class but the rest of the ships are custom and vastly outclass the Kuznetsov class we all know from the exploits of Russia's comedy carrier, in addition their third carrier (Fujian) isn't being built it's in it's commissioning phase (the same state our carriers were in a couple of years before their first missions), their fourth carrier (unnamed) is currently being built but this is a leap forwards again, a nuclear powered super carrier on par with if not superior to a US Nimitz class supercarrier.

So where do the other 6-11 carriers come from? For the past few years China has been steadily building type 075 and type 076 "landing helicopter docks", what are they you ask? Well, they are aircraft carriers. The 075 is a little larger than the Invincible class carriers we used before the QE class and the 076 is the same size as Frances flagship Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier. So how come they are not reported on as carriers? The simple answer is because officially the 075 only carry helicopters and the 076 only carry helicopters and combat drones. Now this may prompt the question of why this is a concern, the concern comes from the fact that the catapults on the 076 are capable of launching J-35s also and the J-35's footprint is fully compatible with the elevators/hangers on the 076. In addition both types can be outfitted with ramps to launch J-16s in under a month if a rapid build up was called for, and there are also plans in the pipe for the 075 to be retrofitted with catapults.

Finally the J-35, for those who haven't seen it, imagine Trumps big bold plan to build a twin engine version of the F-35, okay you're there. Maybe not entirely, but the general look and stealth design of the aircraft, the power of the twin engines, the 5th gen avionics and weapons. Perhaps they aren't as good as an F-35C but they are definitely close to an F-35B in the naval role.

So in short, by 2030 China are going to have (at a minimum) naval aviation combat capability of 10 carriers carrying a mix of 4++ and 5th gen naval fighters plus drones, or (at a maximum) naval aviation combat capability of 15 carriers (one of which nuclear powered) carrying 5th gen fighters plus drones. It is something many in positions of power should be more worried about.

I hope this was interesting/educational for someone.
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Thank you for the write up.

The world is really sleeping on China and the west really needs to be more aggressive with getting manufacturing back into Europe or at least into more friendly nations.
 
Jimbeam3678 said:
It’s not about numbers, its about civil unrest, that 1 child needs to provide for his or her’s family, if they were to invade lots of causalities and lots of unhappy families who will be hungry for several reasons.
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I mean China does have a history of killing millions of their own, the one child policy will balance out once the current older generation has passed. Horrible but they've been through worse.

Trumps actions in Venezuela give them the excuse to do the same with Taiwan, just need to make up some BS excuse about national security. The west won't use nuclear missiles over it, I doubt there would be any military response just sanctions and China will be watching how quickly sanctions are dropped with Russia.
 
Puzzled said:
I mean China does have a history of killing millions of their own, the one child policy will balance out once the current older generation has passed. Horrible but they've been through worse.

Trumps actions in Venezuela give them the excuse to do the same with Taiwan, just need to make up some BS excuse about national security. The west won't use nuclear missiles over it, I doubt there would be any military response just sanctions and China will be watching how quickly sanctions are dropped with Russia.
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How will it ‘balance’ out once the current generation die out?
 
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