Taiwan and China thread.

[dowie]

This was popping up in the Ukraine thread every so often so perhaps ought to have its own thread.

Rather than reply to this post in there I might as well use it to start this thread:

Ok I know what you are saying, it may seem a bit over the top, but you may have noticed Pelosi gave Taiwan a wide berth and visited everywhere else.

They took it seriously enough to not let her visit after all.

This is false, Pelosi has just landed:

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi lands in Taiwan amid threats of Chinese retaliation

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei on Tuesday, marking a significant show of support for Taiwan despite China's threats of retaliation over the visit.

edition.cnn.com

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei on Tuesday, marking a significant show of support for Taiwan despite China's threats of retaliation over the visit.
Pelosi's stop in Taipei is the first time that a US House speaker has visited Taiwan in 25 years. Her trip comes at a low point in US-China relations and despite warnings from the Biden administration against a stop in Taiwan.
A Taiwanese official told CNN that Pelosi is expected to stay in Taipei overnight.


Pelosi's stop in Taiwan was not listed on the itinerary of her congressional visit to Asia, but the stop had been discussed for weeks in the leadup to her trip. The potential stop prompted warnings from China as well as the Biden administration, which has briefed the speaker about the risks of visiting the democratic, self-governing island, which China claims as part of its territory.
On Monday, China warned against the "egregious political impact" of Pelosi's visit, saying that the Chinese military "won't sit by idly" if Beijing believes its "sovereignty and territorial integrity" is being threatened.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday that the decision to visit Taiwan was the speaker's, noting there was past precedent of members of Congress -- including previous House speakers -- visiting. "Congress is an independent, coequal branch of government," Blinken said in remarks at the United Nations. "The decision is entirely the speaker's."

China is obviously going to be miffed by this what they're going to do in return isn't clear, I'd hope they're not stupid enough to actually take on the US directly via some sort of silly spat as that would almost certainly get a direct military response, but there is a risk that they might try and take a small Taiwanese island or try and ramp up exercises/incursions and that sort of stuff can lead to deadly mistakes too.

 

[dowie]

Can't imagine these latest Chinese military movements are a reaction to Pelosi though, even given her trip was delayed from April, - this scale of movement would need to be organised on a much larger/longer scale than a reaction to that.

AFAIK they were already mobilised for some military exercises however some of the recent moves might well be in response to this, albeit using troops that were already committed to the exercises.

 

[dowie]

I guess these islands could be the canary in the coal mine so to speak, they're so close to the Chinese mainland:

Taiwan probably should be part of China anyway. It was originally and was only created by an offshoot of Chinese officials post 2nd world war.

It probably shouldn't, they've developed far better as an independent country without China. They were a Japanese dependency for about 50 or so years until the end of WW2, they'd be better as part of Japan than as part of China.

 

[dowie]

Chinese planes enter Taipei airspace.

Airspace or AIDZ?

Got a link?

 

[dowie]

[...]

That just seems to be info on aircraft around that area, in the strait etc. there doesn't seem to be anything specifically stating they entered Taiwan's airspace.

 

[dowie]

I read a piece the other day explaining how if the USA really wants to give a big fu to China and the rest of the developing world, it just needs to take the dollar off the reserve currency list.

What does that mean? Surely it is up to other countries whether they keep dollars or not?

 

[dowie]

Due to what happened just after ww2, today many commodities are priced in US dollar, such as oil, gold and many others, making the USD the defacto global reserve currency. Because countries need to buy and trade these commodities in large quantities, they must hold large quantities of US dollar in their reserve and because they must hold this US dollars it's very easy for the US to punish a country by taking away their ability to use the USD they have. This gives the US lots of power with its currency but also significantly overvalues the currency compared to what its value would be under normal supply and demand forces.

I'm aware the USD is used by a lot of countries the bit I don't understand is what you mean re: what the US would do - it's all very vague... what do you even mean by " it just needs to take the dollar off the reserve currency list." What list?

I might be mistaken here, I've worked in FX before but I'm not too familiar with the government/central bank side of things - I don't think there is some special list the US can simply edit to remove the USD from and then magically the currency devalues ergo I'm not really sure what it is you're proposing or rather claiming the article is proposing?

Maybe if you link to the article it could be clearer?

 

[dowie]

This is a good video to watch to explain

Sorry but it's just not clear what you were proposing and I'm not sure you know yourself as you're not able to answer direct questions. The USD isn't a crypto currency under US Government control, the US can't just make foreign USD holdings disappear. I think either the article you read is very muddled or you've been a bit confused in retelling whatever it is you read.

(Some USD denominated assets are another matter perhaps, China has plenty of US Treasuries for example but the apparent suggestion from the article makes no sense).

 

[dowie]

If such a plan went ahead Taiwan should be able to maintain the status quo and be backed up countries such as the USA in order to do so, it should also not be involved in any wars or conflicts etc.

Like when Ukraine gave up the Soviet nukes on its territory in return for assurances and guarantees from the US, UK and Russia.

 

[dowie]

Kind of but this time in a way that actually works.

How though? Unless you want Taiwan to join some Asian equivalent of NATO and maintain a military and act independently which would completely undermine what China wants in the first place.

I mean part of that is the current situation, everyone already pretends there is one China and Taiwan unofficially maintains diplomatic links etc.. but has its own military etc..

 

[dowie]

It would be nice but the current problem is simply China, they want Taiwan to be part of China and if Taiwan doesn't wish to be part of China then there likely isn't a peaceful solution to that situation, they're inherently conflicting positions which are just being kicked down the road by the current compromise situation where everyone pretends there is only one China. That compromise situation quite likely has a time limit on it as China is getting frustrated with it and aims to gain control of Taiwan in the near future.

I really don't see what they have to negotiate or talk about unless China were to do a complete 180 on their goal, which doesn't seem very likely. There were negotiations re: HK before that was handed over, technically HK island wasn't leased and simply belonged to the UK, China decided they wanted it all back not just the new territories which had been leased and realistically, short of a nuclear standoff or war, there wasn't anything the UK could do about it, China could have simply cut off the water supply for a start.

The only stuff to negotiate wasn't whether China could have it back but how it was to be transferred + the one country two systems transition period, the PLA still rolled in and took control on day 1 of the handover albeit it was done peacefully with a military ceremony and Chris Patten + his wife and three attractive daughters leaving and getting onboard the Royal Yacht.

 

[dowie]

US fighter pilot arrested for (it looks like) potentially training Chinese

Former US military pilot who worked in China faces extradition after arrest in Australia

The former US citizen was arrested by Australian Federal Police in Orange after a sealed US arrest warrant was issued, with sources saying it relates to the years he spent working in China's aviation sector.

www.abc.net.au

Would be good if the UK did the same to the apparent ex-RAF pilots training the Chinese too.

 

[dowie]

The US should send a few of their own baloons over China... not with any tech onboard (I'm sure the US has what they need from advanced satellites) but rather just to say hello back and to **** with them a little.

 

[dowie]

I think they were mostly concerned with not shooting it down over land, now it lands in the ocean and they can pick it up and take a look at what was onboard.

Maybe an innocent weather balloon was blown off course or maybe it has a load of SIGINT and ELINT gear.

 

[dowie]

A ******* missile to shoot down a balloon? Talk about overkill.

Why?

They presumably want to just take it down rather than look like clowns having fighter jets spend ages shooting at the thing.

 

[dowie]

They immune to having holes torn in them by plane mounted guns?

Pretty much, yes! It took a few days for the Canadian Airforce to bring down a balloon that way.

edit:

When a weather balloon went rogue almost 25 years ago, fighter jets fired 1,000 rounds at it and couldn't bring it down

"With something like this, which is stationary in the air when the CF-18s are flying very, very fast, it is difficult to shoot it," a lieutenant said.

news.yahoo.com

Almost 25 years ago, a large runaway weather balloon proved to be quite challenge a for a pair of fighter jets trying to shoot it down, staying in the air even after more than 1,000 rounds were fired at it.

 

[dowie]

I'd imagine a burst from one of their guns would rip it enough enough to take it down pretty quick.

Well, your imagination is far from reality in that case.

 

[dowie]

Oh, tried it have you?

No, but the Canadian airforce has as I already pointed out.

(FWIW I also remember being told that the surveillance balloon the British Army used over Basra could take a few thousand rounds too.)

 

[dowie]

That was a quarter of a century ago, would have thought it would be trivial these days to take down a large balloon with whatever guns the plane has mounted to it.

FFS because bullets have magically changed in 25 years??? How old is the F22 again?

I think you need to stop relying on your imagination tbh..

 

[dowie]

No, because the amount of tech planes have on board has increased drastically in 25 years so I would think that targeting systems etc have all increased in accuracy.

Any more angst you want to vent?

I'm more amused that anything, FWIW the F22 is equipped with basically the same canon as the F18 has... which is what the Canadian Airforce used.

You're just coming out with nonsense here.