The AI is taking our jerbs thread

[krooton]

A guy I am working with on a side project (Text-based RPG) refers to himself as a vibe coder. He has some intermediate coding knowledge, but we just write up a technical design document, throw it into Claude, and Claude spits out all the code needed to create the game engine and mechanics.

Then we deploy and test to find any bugs, feed the bugs into Claude, and Claude figures out the fixes. It's kinda scary.

I wanted an easy way to design menu/sub-menu structures (drag and drop, reordering, etc), so I made a basic TDD, fed it into Claude, and Claude fully built it in Cursor for me. I find a bug, tell Claude, it iterates some fixes until it works. This took all of 10 minutes.

The obvious future problem is that we will lose the actual people-knowledge, become fully reliant on models, and then by proxy become indentured to the companies that own the models and rent them out to us.

 

[413x]

I feel for the people who have just finished university into this.
At least if you haven't committed there's time to do a trade or something.

 

[D.P.]

I don’t know why you’re so committed to this idea that technical roles are safe.

I’ll tell that to my friends at Microsoft who just lost their jobs, they’re all highly skilled software developers, more than one of them with PhDs.

We have increased our head count 25% in the last 6 months. The AI gold rush is opening up more possibilities that all require more resources.


Companies are laying off software developers, but it is largely unrelated to the rise of AI coding assistants

 

[D.P.]

A guy I am working with on a side project (Text-based RPG) refers to himself as a vibe coder. He has some intermediate coding knowledge, but we just write up a technical design document, throw it into Claude, and Claude spits out all the code needed to create the game engine and mechanics.

Then we deploy and test to find any bugs, feed the bugs into Claude, and Claude figures out the fixes. It's kinda scary.

I wanted an easy way to design menu/sub-menu structures (drag and drop, reordering, etc), so I made a basic TDD, fed it into Claude, and Claude fully built it in Cursor for me. I find a bug, tell Claude, it iterates some fixes until it works. This took all of 10 minutes.

The obvious future problem is that we will lose the actual people-knowledge, become fully reliant on models, and then by proxy become indentured to the companies that own the models and rent them out to us.

This example actually shows that AI is creating work as previously this person lacked sufficient technical knowledge to code a project alone but the increased productivity as allowing them to own a new project and in doing so up skill, as debugging the output from Claude is far harder than actually coding yourself for strong engineers.

 

[krooton]

This example actually shows that AI is creating work as previously this person lacked sufficient technical knowledge to code a project alone but the increased productivity as allowing them to own a new project and in doing so up skill, as debugging the output from Claude is far harder than actually coding yourself for strong engineers.

Well we don't really debug, we just tell Claude the bugs we are seeing, and Claude figures out (eventually) how to fix it.

The problem is the democratization of knowledge/experience. It's all going to be owned by the big players who can afford to run all the processing power needed for these models, and once we are wholly reliant on them, they will pushes the prices up (as is the capitalist way).

 

[mid_gen]

This example actually shows that AI is creating work as previously this person lacked sufficient technical knowledge to code a project alone but the increased productivity as allowing them to own a new project and in doing so up skill, as debugging the output from Claude is far harder than actually coding yourself for strong engineers.

I think you are living in cloud cuckoo land if you think AI is not contributing to an overall reduction in headcount in the tech industry.

Yes there are opportunities and outliers, but the net effect of moving more and more workloads to AI is less jobs.

 

[krooton]

I think you are living in cloud cuckoo land if you think AI is not contributing to an overall reduction in headcount in the tech industry.

Yes there are opportunities and outliers, but the net effect of moving more and more workloads to AI is less jobs.

And more profits, that's the important bit.

 

[D.P.]

I think you are living in cloud cuckoo land if you think AI is not contributing to an overall reduction in headcount in the tech industry.

Yes there are opportunities and outliers, but the net effect of moving more and more workloads to AI is less jobs.

No, just my beliefs are aligned with the experts that are unbiased, and not CEOs trying to raise billions to fuel the AI hype

Will AI Make Software Engineers Obsolete? Here’s the Reality

Discover why AI won't replace software engineers anytime soon and learn how a coding bootcamp can help you thrive in a tech role.

bootcamps.cs.cmu.edu

The tech giants are wrong: AI won't replace engineers - Raconteur

People are concerned enough about AI, but the truth is that strategic work will always require humans, says Sabrina Farmer, CTO of GitLab

www.raconteur.net

And don't take this as an opinion from a position of ignorance. I have a PHD in AI, nearly 20 years industry experience applying AI and ML, lead a large team dedicated to using AI, have dozens of patents related to AI and especially genAi, and i'm on a committee of experts deciding how literally billions of dollars of internal funding should be applied. I'm also desperately trying to see how the latest tools can help with our internal software problem ms vut they all fail badly, inventing APIs or having zero understanding of how things like Spark's physical optimization works

 

[D.P.]

GitHub CEO says the 'smartest' companies will hire more software engineers — not fewer — as AI develops

"If I have one more productive developer, why wouldn't I hire another one, and another one?'" said GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke.

www.businessinsider.com

GitHub CEO says the 'smartest' companies will hire more software engineers — not fewer — as AI develops

 

[malachi]

At least if you haven't committed there's time to do a trade or something.

All good saying that until the trade industry gets oversaturated, just like the certain parts of the IT.

Then you have the complaints about trades not paying well. As if pay low pay isnt a problem in that industry already. With wages being driven down due to certain external reasons.

 

[413x]

All good saying that until the trade industry gets oversaturated, just like the certain parts of the IT.

Then you have the complaints about trades not paying well. As if pay low pay isnt a problem in that industry already. With wages being driven down due to certain external reasons.

That's where we are heading surely. A race to the bottom.

All the narrative around falling birth rates being bad capitalism may end in the next decade as people become a pure drain on resources.


Can't imagine what the next 10 years will look like. Not a clue.

 

[jonneymendoza]

All good saying that until the trade industry gets oversaturated, just like the certain parts of the IT.

Then you have the complaints about trades not paying well. As if pay low pay isnt a problem in that industry already. With wages being driven down due to certain external reasons.

Yup.. going trade wont all of a suden make you earn 100k a year.

 

[jonneymendoza]

No, just my beliefs are aligned with the experts that are unbiased, and not CEOs trying to raise billions to fuel the AI hype

Will AI Make Software Engineers Obsolete? Here’s the Reality

Discover why AI won't replace software engineers anytime soon and learn how a coding bootcamp can help you thrive in a tech role.

bootcamps.cs.cmu.edu

The tech giants are wrong: AI won't replace engineers - Raconteur

People are concerned enough about AI, but the truth is that strategic work will always require humans, says Sabrina Farmer, CTO of GitLab

www.raconteur.net

And don't take this as an opinion from a position of ignorance. I have a PHD in AI, nearly 20 years industry experience applying AI and ML, lead a large team dedicated to using AI, have dozens of patents related to AI and especially genAi, and i'm on a committee of experts deciding how literally billions of dollars of internal funding should be applied. I'm also desperately trying to see how the latest tools can help with our internal software problem ms vut they all fail badly, inventing APIs or having zero understanding of how things like Spark's physical optimization works

So given your background, do you think AI will take over most Software development jobs/roles?

 

[D.P.]

All good saying that until the trade industry gets oversaturated, just like the certain parts of the IT.

Then you have the complaints about trades not paying well. As if pay low pay isnt a problem in that industry already. With wages being driven down due to certain external reasons.

Trades is probably the mast place to move.

Demand is linked almost entirely to the population level and housing stock. There is zero ability to generate, growth or invent a new widget that have a significant ROI. Trade supply is already balanced to provide tradesman a reasonable price and booking close to 100%.


With technology there is infinite growth potential, the only constraints are imagination and cost. If AI will really increase productivity significantly then the cost omis less of a factor and tech industry can rapidly expand. This could lead to a marge increase in jobs. Anything that was unlikely to have a decent ROI might now be feasible if investments can be lowered or time to market reduced.

Adding more tradesmen simply means redistributing the same work and thus money across more workers, and they'll have to compete more strongly on price.

 

[mid_gen]

No, just my beliefs are aligned with the experts that are unbiased, and not CEOs trying to raise billions to fuel the AI hype

Will AI Make Software Engineers Obsolete? Here’s the Reality

Discover why AI won't replace software engineers anytime soon and learn how a coding bootcamp can help you thrive in a tech role.

bootcamps.cs.cmu.edu

Here's why AI isn't a threat to tech jobs and you definitely need to give us money for our coding bootcamp

The tech giants are wrong: AI won't replace engineers - Raconteur

People are concerned enough about AI, but the truth is that strategic work will always require humans, says Sabrina Farmer, CTO of GitLab

www.raconteur.net

In that article....

This is an important topic, given the recent findings of a WEF report which revealed that 41% of companies anticipate workforce reductions due to AI in the next five years.

And don't take this as an opinion from a position of ignorance. I have a PHD in AI, nearly 20 years industry experience applying AI and ML, lead a large team dedicated to using AI, have dozens of patents related to AI and especially genAi, and i'm on a committee of experts deciding how literally billions of dollars of internal funding should be applied. I'm also desperately trying to see how the latest tools can help with our internal software problem ms vut they all fail badly, inventing APIs or having zero understanding of how things like Spark's physical optimization works

I'll repeat myself once more....yes, there are opportunities for people in the AI space. No, it will not solve all problems.....but it IS going to see an overall reduction in headcount. Frankly you seem to be typical of PhD's I've worked with who struggle to see the wider picture outside of their area of immediate experience.

 

[jonneymendoza]

Here's why AI isn't a threat to tech jobs and you definitely need to give us money for our coding bootcamp

In that article....



I'll repeat myself once more....yes, there are opportunities for people in the AI space. No, it will not solve all problems.....but it IS going to see an overall reduction in headcount. Frankly you seem to be typical of PhD's I've worked with who struggle to see the wider picture outside of their area of immediate experience.

So you are saying that AI will reduce the amount fo jobs in say, software development, graphics desigenrs, admin desk jobs and possibly solicitors?

 

[mid_gen]

So you are saying that AI will reduce the amount fo jobs in say, software development, graphics desigenrs, admin desk jobs and possibly solicitors?

Any job that can be performed whilst sat in front of a computer is likely to be impacted by the introduction of AI to automate those roles in the coming years.

Yes that includes software developers, graphic designers, admin desk jobs, solicitors. None of this is some great insight, it’s quite well understood that this is what has already started happening.

 

[jonneymendoza]

Any job that can be performed whilst sat in front of a computer is likely to be impacted by the introduction of AI to automate those roles in the coming years.

Yes that includes software developers, graphic designers, admin desk jobs, solicitors. None of this is some great insight, it’s quite well understood that this is what has already started happening.

And where are those people going to work to earn a living then? Become plumbers?

What if ai creates more homeless people and a decline in spending overall as everyone tightens their belts?

That would affect plumbers and builders as no one would be able to afford to hire them to do some work in their house unless their roof literally has collapsed or something.

That means the demand for hiring tradesmen will go down dramatically along with everything else we spend money on besides the bare minimum food, water and heating.

Things like buying new techs will see sales go down, people spending money to go see some gig or show (ai will eventually just take over and create ai music and movies for us).

Netflix subs etc will tumble, the tourist business will go down to **** as well etc etc etc.

Having ai take over say 60 percent of the jobs will completely distabalise the economy

 

[mid_gen]

And where are those people going to work to earn a living then? Become plumbers?

What if ai creates more homeless people and a decline in spending overall as everyone tightens their belts?

That would affect plumbers and builders as no one would be able to afford to hire them to do some work in their house unless their roof literally has collapsed or something.

That means the demand for hiring tradesmen will go down dramatically along with everything else we spend money on besides the bare minimum food, water and heating.

Things like buying new techs will see sales go down, people spending money to go see some gig or show (ai will eventually just take over and create ai music and movies for us).

Netflix subs etc will tumble, the tourist business will go down to **** as well etc etc etc.

Having ai take over say 60 percent of the jobs will completely distabalise the economy

Have you been living under a rock? Yes these are problems that a lot of people are thinking about.

The ROI on automating a process that was previously done by a human is so clear and obvious that the market forces behind this transition will be unstoppable.

I'm not worried about 60% for now, what I'd be concerned about is the fact that I don't think our society will deal with a 10-20% reduction in jobs over the next decade.

 

[Ayahuasca]

I think we're a long way off reaching that stage i.e. 60%, but the idea of some form of universal basic income is one that gets bandied around a lot. However, it's difficult to imagine a stable society when there's an even bigger gap between the haves and the have-nots, with the majority of the population being given the same scraps to feed on.

A pessimistic take but eventually, I think people will mostly live in virtual worlds and take substances to cope with the monotony. At the moment, we're not really far off that, with people mostly living their lives through social media and with the rise in prescription drugs such as SSRIs.