The disappearance of Nicola Bulley

[silvagti]

That is the question to the OP.

I only asked as we know, the police won't reveal details at this early stage so they may have evidence or witness statements that is leading them to believe that there best course of action is to concentrate on the theory she went into the river.

Does seem like a very odd statement for the police to make?

“We’ve found no other evidence so we’ve assumed she fell into the river…!”

Makes me think they do suspect something or someone else and are trying to make any potential culprit think they’re in the clear too see if it causes them to slip up?

 

[Devilman]

<Snip>

People tend to have no idea how fast/powerful even "shallow" water can be (about 20-30cm of fast flowing water can be enough to knock you over from memory), or how hard it can be to find a body in water.

I think this is a key point here that many, many people overlook.

The average person vastly under-estimates the strength of water current and often believes they could easily swim "against the tide" etc.. when the reality is very different.

 

[McBain]

I read she was wearing one of those ankle length heavy coats, if that’s the case and she slipped in it’s not hard to imagine she was dragged under and drowned.

 

[Deleted User 234324]

Occam's Razor comes to mind.

 

[Devilman]

I read she was wearing one of those ankle length heavy coats, if that’s the case and she slipped in it’s not hard to imagine she was dragged under and drowned.

Another very valid point there to go alongside what I said to @Werewolf a few posts ago.

The average person also vastly under-estimates just how difficult and tiring it is to attempt to swim while clothed, let alone if they're wearing a big heavy winter coat.

 

[Haggisman]

Another very valid point there to go alongside what I said to @Werewolf a few posts ago.

The average person also vastly under-estimates just how difficult and tiring it is to attempt to swim while clothed, let alone if they're wearing a big heavy winter coat.

Yup, did a life saving course when I was younger (and a lot fitter!), part of which included jumping in a warm swimming pool in jeans, tshirt & trainers. Needless to say, it was very difficult to swim in this state; shoes turn into lead sponges, and think about how difficult it is to put a tshirt or socks on after a shower when your skin is still damp? Now imagine trying that in cold water (temperature is still in single figures in a lot of the country), when you're not prepared for it, when there's nobody ready to pull you out, and whilst wearing a giant sponge...

It's really sad how desperate some people are to paint the police in a bad light - I'm not denying they can make mistakes, and of course there are bad and corrupt officers amongst them, but the majority are almost certainly decent people just trying to do the best job they can. Unfortunately they can only go on the evidence they do have; and in the absence of any evidence, then it absolutely makes sense to pursue the most likely cause - which in the case of someone disappearing without a trace next to a river, is obviously "they fell in the river".

Would the critics prefer they just came out and said "we don't know what happened" and didn't do anything at all?

 

[Deleted User 234324]

The only reason the slip into river scenario doesn't work is because there's no sign of it. There would be muddy track marks from slipping down the bank if that is what did happen, considering the steepness of the bank near the suspect location.

Then there's the added issue of the water depth, which directly south of the bench is ~3m, but just around the corner where there's a beeched section on a bend its barely 30cm.

While it's entirely possible to drown in only a few inches, could a body float in 30cm of water and not catch on anything, considering its a very twisty section of river.

As for the possibility of abduction, again its possible, and it would likely have been someone that either knew her, or at least knew the area well to avoid CCTV, as was said by the Police, there's a CCTV backspot in part of the village.

 

[GGizmo]

A forensic expert who works for other police forces doesn't believe she just fell in.

He also gives lots of reasons why the theory isn't likely. But if she did fall in he said he would have expected them to found her by now.

Interesting that the area hasn't been sealed off. So we don't know if someone else was there. Now we won't know.

It seems like the police amateur hour.

Poor woman.

 

[Devilman]

The only reason the slip into river scenario doesn't work is because there's no sign of it. There would be muddy track marks from slipping down the bank if that is what did happen, considering the steepness of the bank near the suspect location.

Then there's the added issue of the water depth, which directly south of the bench is ~3m, but just around the corner where there's a beeched section on a bend its barely 30cm.

While it's entirely possible to drown in only a few inches, could a body float in 30cm of water and not catch on anything, considering its a very twisty section of river.

As for the possibility of abduction, again its possible, and it would likely have been someone that either knew her, or at least knew the area well to avoid CCTV, as was said by the Police, there's a CCTV backspot in part of the village.

There is not always visible signs when accidents happen.

Entire cars travelling at speed have gone through trees and been "lost" for weeks before being discovered, it's far far easier for a single person to slip on some wet grass and leave no trace.

With regard to depth of water, it would be fair to assume that water level ebbs and flows so while there may indeed be an area barely 30cm deep downstream, under the right conditions that could easily become 60cm, more than enough to carry a body.

Not to mention that when flowing water moves through a restriction (such as a narrowing of the stream or reduction in depth) the water velocity speeds up correspondingly, so that barely 30cm deep section could be flowing at 4-6knts and would easily push a body downstream.

Likewise that increased force of water can push a body through undergrowth / overhanging branches and as detailed by @Werewolf earlier, there has been many occasions in the past where bodies have only been discovered months later, even though the stretch of water was searched multiple times.


It really does seem as though, without any evidence or suggestions of foul play, Occam's Razor should be applied and the most likely cause is they fell into the river and got swept away



*edit*

He also gives lots of reasons why the theory isn't likely. But if she did fall in he said he would have expected them to found her by now.

As mentioned by @Werewolf there are numerous examples of cases where people have fell into a body of water and drowned only for the body to remain undiscovered until months later, even after extensive searches.

 

[Terminal_Boy]

I think this is a key point here that many, many people overlook.

The average person vastly under-estimates the strength of water current and often believes they could easily swim "against the tide" etc.. when the reality is very different.

My late father, a very fit man and strong swimmer almost drowned on holiday in Florida when he got caught in a rip tide only 100 yards from the shore. He’d been trying to swim back for about 5 minutes when I spotted him waving, so I waved back. When he frantically waved again, I knew something was wrong and went in after him which I realised afterwards could have doomed us both. Luckily, he was only around 20 yards beyond where I could no longer touch the sea bed and I managed to get him back to shore. He was totally exhausted and had to rest for an hour before he had the energy to walk back to our appartment.

Having completed a North Sea Oil & Gas Survival Course, I know that trying to move around in the water wearing an insulated survival suit that has multiple flotation elements is difficult enough, so trying to stay afloat in one of those boiler lagging coats as it absorbed water while dealing with cold shock and a strong current is going to end badly for anyone who isn’t SBS/Navy SEALs.

 

[Haggisman]

As for the possibility of abduction, again its possible, and it would likely have been someone that either knew her, or at least knew the area well to avoid CCTV, as was said by the Police, there's a CCTV backspot in part of the village.

And my guess (in the absence of any evidence other for or against this) is that they are most likely also pursuing this angle by checking additional cctv outside of the area. Problem is, photos and videos of someone sitting at a computer trawling through weeks worth of CCTV footage isn't quite as "exciting" as photos and videos of divers climbing out of a river etc.

 

[Chris Wilson]

Does seem like a very odd statement for the police to make?

“We’ve found no other evidence so we’ve assumed she fell into the river…!”

Makes me think they do suspect something or someone else and are trying to make any potential culprit think they’re in the clear too see if it causes them to slip up?

I am not following this at all closely, but didn't I read she was on the river bank, with the dog, having a multi way business meeting on her phone? Who the hell does that unless they are being cautious about being overhead by someone in the house? These meetings aren't spontaneous, and when one is due you don't take the dog for a walk unless it's to have it in secret. Maybe person or persons unknown followed her and were riled but what they heard? I see merit in your idea!

Anyway, I'll put my Poirot hat away for now

 

[Devilman]

My late father, a very fit man and strong swimmer almost drowned on holiday in Florida when he got caught in a rip tide only 100 yards from the shore. He’d been trying to swim back for about 5 minutes when I spotted him waving, so I waved back. When he frantically waved again, I knew something was wrong and went in after him which I realised afterwards could have doomed us both. Luckily, he was only around 20 yards beyond where I could no longer touch the sea bed and I managed to get him back to shore. He was totally exhausted and had to rest for an hour before he had the energy to walk back to our appartment.

Having completed a North Sea Oil & Gas Survival Course, I know that trying to move around in the water wearing an insulated survival suit that has multiple flotation elements is difficult enough, so trying to stay afloat in one of those boiler lagging coats as it absorbed water while dealing with cold shock and a strong current is going to end badly for anyone who isn’t SBS/Navy SEALs.

Yeh so very true, I think the vast majority of people's assessment of their own swimming ability is really skewed by the fact a very large proportion of them have only ever swam in warm water, with no tide / current to swim against and wearing minimal and very light-weight clothing (swimming trunks / costume / bikini / mankini ).

The difference just a couple of knots of tide, or the cold shock of hitting 8-12c water, or just trying to deal with swimming while fully clothed in heavy winter clothing is utterly crippling.

Combine all 3 and like you say, unless they're a trained Navy SEAL or SBS type person, they have no chance.

 

[VaderDSL]

Edit : Actually ignore me, I apparently don't understand metric. I thought the river levels were changing by 30-50cm, but they were changing by just 3-5cm (0.44m > 0.5m)

 

[Haggisman]

Tbh, rereading the OP and subsequent posts, this whole thread seems like an excuse for the poster to **** on the police rather than any interest in the story itself

 

[Uther]

I am not following this at all closely, but didn't I read she was on the river bank, with the dog, having a multi way business meeting on her phone? Who the hell does that unless they are being cautious about being overhead by someone in the house? These meetings aren't spontaneous, and when one is due you don't take the dog for a walk unless it's to have it in secret. Maybe person or persons unknown followed her and were riled but what they heard? I see merit in your idea!

Anyway, I'll put my Poirot hat away for now

People work from home a lot these days. My son is often out taking work calls when walking the dog.
I still think the most plausible thing is she fell in, but hopefully the truth will come out eventually.

 

[Werewolf]

The only reason the slip into river scenario doesn't work is because there's no sign of it. There would be muddy track marks from slipping down the bank if that is what did happen, considering the steepness of the bank near the suspect location.

Then there's the added issue of the water depth, which directly south of the bench is ~3m, but just around the corner where there's a beeched section on a bend its barely 30cm.

While it's entirely possible to drown in only a few inches, could a body float in 30cm of water and not catch on anything, considering its a very twisty section of river.

As for the possibility of abduction, again its possible, and it would likely have been someone that either knew her, or at least knew the area well to avoid CCTV, as was said by the Police, there's a CCTV backspot in part of the village.

Not necessarily, or not necessarily anything that would stand out much.
I grew up with a stream at the bottom of our garden and we would regularly go fishing/playing in it and the bank went from near vertical to just extremely steep and we'd be slipping and sliding down it then using the likes of the trees to help pull ourselves up. Half the time at the more accessible bits after a few minutes you wouldn't notice that someone had been down it, and this was banks that hit something like 60 degrees at the "we're kids, we're going to live forever, lets climb down here" parts (and about 45 degrees at the part the adults would use as an unofficial shortcut to reach the supermarket on the other side of the stream in the summer when the water was really low).
I can quite believe that by the time the police arrived and a proper search was underway any signs would have been very hard to see, especially if other people had tried looking up/down the bank or were known to have used it recently.

 

[Haggisman]

I am not following this at all closely, but didn't I read she was on the river bank, with the dog, having a multi way business meeting on her phone? Who the hell does that unless they are being cautious about being overhead by someone in the house? These meetings aren't spontaneous, and when one is due you don't take the dog for a walk unless it's to have it in secret. Maybe person or persons unknown followed her and were riled but what they heard? I see merit in your idea!

Anyway, I'll put my Poirot hat away for now

I've done stuff like this quite a few times, it's called "multitasking". If I've got a call scheduled where I don't need to make any contribution, and don't really need to pay much attention (you'd be surprised how many of these there are ), then it makes sense to do something useful with that time, be it having breakfast, washing up, walking the kids to school, walking the dog etc. The fact she was muted during the meeting would make sense if this were the case

 

[Kenai]

I am not following this at all closely, but didn't I read she was on the river bank, with the dog, having a multi way business meeting on her phone? Who the hell does that unless they are being cautious about being overhead by someone in the house? These meetings aren't spontaneous, and when one is due you don't take the dog for a walk unless it's to have it in secret. Maybe person or persons unknown followed her and were riled but what they heard? I see merit in your idea!

Anyway, I'll put my Poirot hat away for now

Loads of people do this if the meeting isn't likely to need looking at a screen or much continuous input. Nothing to do with needing to be secret, it's just nicer than sitting at a desk, especially if people have considerately booked (often pointless) online meetings nose to tail all the way through lunch.

 

[One More Solo]

Likewise, I do this nearly every day. We are even encouraged to take walking meetings where it’s appropriate to do so. Some desperate speculation and clutching at straws here due to the lack of publicly available evidence.