Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (June Poll)

[Aldav]

The idea that the trade we do with Europe is perfectly replaceable with trade to the rest of the world is laughable.

That's just wrong.

Trade fluctuates all the time, but UK-EU trade has been dropping for several years. Currently, UK-RestofWorld trade is hampered by the fact that we are not allowed to enter trade deals with other (non-EU) countries. With non-EU countries, we either have to trade without a trade deal at all, or we have to trade through EU trade deals. Currently, any non-EU country seeking to trade with the UK is trading with an EU member, and so that country is on the outside of the protectionist barriers that are the EU customs union borders, and so are at a disadvantage compared to trading with the UK once a Brexit was completed.

What is utterly certain is that UK -EU trade will continue, in substantial part, even if we leave. For the reasons why, read that German report on the potential impact of Brexit. Terms will change, and volumes may to a point, but nobody knows, or can know, how much volumes will change or what terms will be until it happens. But it is certain that major EU countries will not just cease exporting to the UK. We are a small country but still a big economy, and doing that would hurt not just the UK but also, for example, Germany and France. Neither side want that.

Trade costs with the EU will perhaps rise, but trade ultimately is determined by consumers. Will UK customers stop buying BMW and Mercedes? Not unless the UK government slaps enormous tariffs on them (despite WTO rules) and the same applies the other way round.

Will there be an effect? Almost certainly. But nobody knows how much because the negotiations have yet to take place.

But just as leaving the EU means the UK would be outside those protectionist barriers when trading into the EU, we and everybody except the EU would be outside when trading with each other. The costs currently incurred by non-EU countries trading with the UK as a result of us being inside those barriers disappear if we are outside, meaning that if EU tariff and non-tariff costs with the EU go up, costs with others go down, for them and us.

It is entirely reasonable to suppose that trade with non-EU countries goes up if the costs of that trade, with the UK, go down. By how much our trade with the EU and others varies remains to be seen, but it is certainly not laughable to see it go up, and very possibly significantly. It's been going up anyway, without being outside the barriers. One reason at least some existing trade is intra-EU is because, currently, we're inside those protectionist barriers.

And by the way, I say this as a UK national that's been living overseas for a very long time, running businesses and that, in the past, looked to the UK for trade but was so put off by the hoops EU paperwork put me through that I gave up and focussed elsewhere.

 

[Skunkworks]

It wasn't extended arbitrarily. There were problems that stopped people being able to register.

And if they arrive at the polling station at 21:59 - another extension?

 

[scorza]

You can bet diamonds that if the young voters were largely understood to be leavers then it would have been tough **** baby about late registration and website crashes.

Pretty typical behaviour from the increasingly desperate establishment gang bangers.

Time to break the circle

 

[Mr Jack]

And if they arrive at the polling station at 21:59 - another extension?

If you're going to use an analogy, at least use one that mirrors what actually happened - "And if they arrive at the polling station at 19:59 and discover that they've run out of ballot papers - another extension?"

 

[davewhite04]

How long have they had to register, the last 24 hours, or the last 6 months?

It's a fix by the Establishment, if young voters were thought to be outers there would have been no concerns from Cameron et al.

Something is not right. The LEAVE campaign didn't push like the IN campaign for this extension. I think if this many people are passionate about voting, which is a new thing for this country, then what are they passionate about? Being British is all I can think of.

The EU brought good laws in, especially in the workers rights department in 1998ish. But they offer nothing now, just problems. The economy will change for the better in my opinion if we leave.

 

[krooton]

I still don't know how I'm going to vote, I don't believe anything anyone is saying

 

[Aldav]

I also heard that all "leading" economists that the IN brigade constantly refer to, amount to about 100 out of about 4000 who wisely have not commented.

I don't know about that. But it could be. The IFS report, for instance, has just four authors, though it does draw on data from others, like NIESR. The IMF report, well, we don't know in part because it's yet to be published. We do know that it's not a report on Brexit, as such, but a part of the far larger and regular Article IV report on the UK, but it's attributed to "staff", so who knows how many, who they are, what their backgrounds are or what the methodology they used was? Also, IIRC, the CBI so-called report wasn't an analysis as such, but the culling of conclusions from a selection of other reports. There has, at least, been some allegations of selectivity in which reports were included and which weren't. But either way, it's hardly authoritative. As for being "informed", it amounts to them saying "we believe these guys". Whoop de do.

What is certain is that, again and again, the carefully phrased language in reports, and the caveats, get lost in the press and when used as justification by partisan political operators (of either side) when "may", "might", "could possibly", "likely" and so on suddenly get imbued with a level of certainty suggesting infallibility, like "will" instead of "could".

 

[RaohNS]

The issue is how "informed" that "informed" opinion is. That would be from bodies like the IFS, with a fair bit of EU funding, and the IMF which, first, is led by the former French finance minister, and second, was so accurate about UK "austerity" plans and the devastating impact it would have on the UK economy that it had to apologise for being so utterly wrong.

These "informed" opinions are, in fact, just relying on numbers pumped out by econometric models which in turn are built on assumptions of the nature, and magnitude, of effects. Where these are assumptions based on a significant body of time-series data and times are normal, those assumptions have been tested, and are fairly accurate, by which I mean, have a decent prospect of being broadly right.

But we saw, post-2007/08 crash just how accurate those models are when times aren't normal, and that IMF apology over austerity measures underlined the point, and highlighted it in neon.

Brexit, if it happens, is utterly unprecedented, and none, none at all, of those models have historical data on which to test their assumptions of the hugely complex set of impacts of their models.

Those opinions, at least on the impact of Brexit, are not "informed" at all. They are relying on credibility, such as it is after being spectacularly wrong in the past, to give the imprimateur of supposedly "informed" opinion onto what boils down to a set of theoretical guesses of effects refined into formula and stuck in a damn great spreadsheet.

Which brings me back to my earlier point. Make those assumptions about the impact in a pessimistic way, and lo and behold, the models give pessimistic results. Make them optimistically and we get optimistic results. They're models, based on assumptions, based on theory and guesswork because nobody, including those "informed opinions" has any historical basis for a complex and unprecedented situation.

Before you rely too much on "informed opinion" just because they're supposedly renowned economic bodies, I would point out that two of the greastest theoretical economists in history, Keynes and Friedman, fundamentally disagreed even on basic principles never mind fine-tuning assumptions. Bung a more modern economist, like Leijonhufvud (under whom I studied briefly in the 70s, and who is about the one thing Yanis Varoufakis have in common, in terms of being influenced by) and it's like putting out a forest fire with dynamite - you can't predict the exact effect but you can expect a big bang.

Don't be too impressed by "informed" economists.

Quoted for truth. Beautiful +1

 

[davewhite04]

What is certain is that, again and again, the carefully phrased language in reports, and the caveats, get lost in the press and when used as justification by partisan political operators (of either side) when "may", "might", "could possibly", "likely" and so on suddenly get imbued with a level of certainty suggesting infallibility, like "will" instead of "could".

Exactly. The IN brigade are constantly banging on about how the LEAVE brigade do not know what will happen, yet all they've got "might", "may", "probably".

Hypocrites, I hope the general public open their eyes to this spineless and destructive IN campaign.

 

[Skunkworks]

...

Good post, but you're talking to ideologues either still in, or barely out of, the 6th form bubble.

 

[Aldav]

This deadline extension leaves me conflicted.

On the one hand, I highly doubt the government would be going to legislate for an extension if the thought it would aid Leave.

On the other hand, everybody entitled to vote ought to be allowed to, whichever way they're likely to swing.


What worries me is that if x people are allowed to register as a result of this deadline, say 150,000 for the sake of argument, and the result is very close, say 100,000, that that extension gives a near-perfect reason for using that extension to justify a judicial review of the result. Open that door, and other things are likely to get dragged in too, and if we end up with the result being determined by judges, anybody on the losing side is likely to claim the whole process was invalid, which way the judges decide.

All told, I'm inclined to support not extending, simply because anyone planning to vote has to have had their head in a box for months not to have known about registration, and if they're stupid enough to wait for the last couple of hours to do it, so be it. It's not worth opening the judicial review box over it.

Either way, extend or not, it's a colossal mess with no good option.

 

[kindai]

Why is it a mess at all.

People have had weeks and weeks and weeks notice they needed to register by the 7th if they wanted to vote.

If they left it to the last minute and didnt get in, tough luck, should have done it sooner.

 

[PapaLazaru]

I still don't know how I'm going to vote, I don't believe anything anyone is saying

Just base it on how your life is in general. If you are having a good life with stable employment etc then vote to remain.

If you get annoyed that Pavel who lives next door has bought a new BMW because he does good building work for cheap, then vote out.

 

[Aldav]

Good post, but you're talking to ideologues either still in, or barely out of, the 6th form bubble.

Even if so, and I've no idea if it is, treating them respectfully may result in them treating me that way, and considering what I've said. Not necessarily accepting or agreeing, but at least considering. Being disrespectful, or patronising, especially to people I've never met and know nothing about, certainly won't.

Ultimately, anything I say is one bloke's opinion. As they know nothing about me, anything I say or claim has to stand on it's merits, or not, as I'm not the IFS, IMF, NIESR, CBI, TUC, CIA, ABC, XYZ or any other collection of initials.

 

[davewhite04]

Why is it a mess at all.

People have had weeks and weeks and weeks notice they needed to register by the 7th if they wanted to vote.

If they left it to the last minute and didnt get in, tough luck, should have done it sooner.

In all honesty, this is the biggest vote most, if not all of us will have in our lifetime.

It's important, they should have bought their servers from Overclockers

 

[bayo000]

Just base it on how your life is in general. If you are having a good life with stable employment etc then vote to remain.

If you get annoyed that Pavel who lives next door has bought a new BMW because he does good building work for cheap, then vote out.

Haha, that's how I feel as well. If you're happy with your life then there's no need to risk a change.

 

[do_ron_ron]

You can bet diamonds that if the young voters were largely understood to be leavers then it would have been tough **** baby about late registration and website crashes.

Pretty typical behaviour from the increasingly desperate establishment gang bangers.

Well f you all.

OUT.

What a crock of ****

 

[bayo000]

My favorite thing about Leavers' hate of young people is that these young, coffee drinking, lazy students will be the ones in the future governments that Leave puts so much faith to run the country.

 

[Skunkworks]

They will have grown up by then.

 

[swillsy]

They will have grown up by then.

lol..but true

a few years of work will make you re-evaluate your political views