It may be a long wait, but it will come. I just don't see it coming from either Canon or Nikon but they may surprise me. I think Nikon & Canon will keep making DSLR's like most camera companies kept pushing out cheap compact camera's in the age of the camera phone. My prediction is Nikon and to a much lesser extent Canon (as it has a diverse product range), will do a Kodak.
I think other companies will already have mature systems in place and have a big market share lead by the time Canikon smell the coffee. It will be too late for them then, just like it is with Sony in the DSLR market. For some reason, big companies can be incredibly dumb when it comes to recognising shifts in the market place.
It is possible but unlikely I think. Nikon is very fragile, very focused on cameras so they have to succeed but that is why they most likely will. Canon, Sony, Olympus, Fuji could all kill off their camera bussines and it has been rumored in the past that some might (canon is a little different, still cameras are a core business but they make so much elsewhere)
The main reason canon and Nikon do so well is a combination of reputation, lens selection, cost of changing systems, all round technical performance (e.g. No one has an AF system that matches Nikon and canon pro models) and doing just enough technical advances to keep up or just ahead of the other players.
You see Sony has tried lots of smart things but have failed in most attempts to gain market and that isn't for product quality reasons but the reasons above.
The main thing canon and Nikon need to do is ensure full lens compatibility so the current lenses can be used without compromise. Adapters are one solution but they have failed to impress and have some technical limitations. Preferable would be to keep the mount IMO but that has some limits where starting fresh wouldn't be a bad idea.
They also need to ensure things like autofocus are the best there is.
If canon and Nikon have to start making fresh new lenses with a new mount then it puts them well behind the competitors. M43 already has a more or less complete lens system. This is where Sony is really falling behind. If you had canons lens selection for the A7 cameras and their AF performed like a 1DX/D4 then why would you ever want anything else?
Canon and Nikon can both act fast if they want to but they rarely feel the need. They both survived/led the AF race and both survived/led the digital race, letting everyone else fall by the roadside.
Nikon rumors have an appropriate article today.
