That wasn't speculation, note the word "if". Though if you're claiming he has all or most of his assets tied up in emerging markets then what is the basis for this claim? It would be unusual at the least.
Ok… that's not what I was claiming.
No one claimed he was a hobby investor - that point still remains though. Again what is the basis for assuming almost all his net worth is tied up there?
You said:
Sure but if the argument was to be made that his investments in EM funds were the reason for his apparent profits then it would need a significant amount of his wealth if not the majority to be there if he's going to offset and eclipse any losses elsewhere.
You added this arbitrary requirement and you are now arguing with yourself.
I have been clear from the outset that he doesn't need to have all or most of his assets tied up in Somerset Capital or its funds in order for it also to be true that he has profited from the devaluation of the pound via his association with SC and investments in EM fund(s).
What are you suggesting then? I mean in order for him to supposedly be profiting overall from a falling GBP then he'd be doing something along the lines of tying up the majority of his wealth overseas or he'd be taking a big currency bet.
Why is this a requirement?
As long as the sum of his investments are net positive, and his SC/EM investments are also net positive, he can be said to have profited from it. Why do the majority of his investments need to be overseas or linked to a currency bet and on what basis do you assume that the rest of his investments are not net positive?
Even with the potential impending recession, I'd be very surprised if all of his other investments were net negative.
If you're just pointing out that he's got some funds invested in emerging markets then so what? He had funds invested in emerging markets before he even became an MP... plenty of investors both wealthy and rather ordinary have funds invested in emerging markets and that portion of their portfolio might well have become more valuable in GBP terms simply through the pound devaluing.
How is it beneficial to him? That is the point.
Let's break it down — assume that:
x = annual profits from before the referendum.
y = theoretical annual profits following a Remain win or a Brexit campaign that didn't involve JRM campaigning to leave the EU.
z = actual annual profits following a Leave win in which JRM campaigned to leave the EU.
If
y is greater than or equal to
x then I'd have no problem with it.
If
z is greater than or equal to
x or
y and the pound hadn't tanked, I'd have no problem with it.
If z is greater than or equal to
x or
y in any part because of the devaluation of the pound (let's call this margin
n) then I have a problem with it.
If
n exists (and I'd be amazed if it didn't) then it reflects a profit derived from a conflict of interest on the part of JRM. It doesn't matter if
n is £1 — the principal remains the same.
It seems a bit presumptuous to say the least... to then extend that to being the basis for them wanting to see the UK economy crash (which is what prompted my comment on this) seems very dubious indeed. Certainly, no one seems to have presented any basis for holding that belief... beyond pointing out that he used to be a fund manager.
Just to re-iterate - my arguments here are that he didn't relocate the office and he's not conspiring to crash the UK economy on the basis that he's going to massively profit from it.
It is the position I was arguing against when you quoted me.
I'm aware of that. I then posted a related but different point and the discussion continued from there — that's how a conversation works…
At no point in this thread have I echoed
@Destination's original claims.
I very much doubt that JRM, Crispin Odey, Aaron Banks et al actually want the UK economy to 'crash and burn' (your words, not mine). However, they are in a position to benefit from the volatility that has arisen since the referendum, volatility that shows no signs of abating.
I'm not suggesting this is their sole reason for wanting Brexit, but I absolutely believe that personal profit is one of their motivations.
It is rather loaded and also a flawed question.
Fair point.
