Tories lost the 2019 election among working age adults

R.P.L · 2 Feb 2022 at 10:42

There aren't really any free markets any more, because central banks and governments control the price of everything.

413x · 2 Feb 2022 at 10:50

HACO said:
The property market is the opposite of a free market. Every time there is any downwards pressure, the government does something to alleviate that. Whether schemes to inflate prices (help to buy, shared ownership, relaxing borrowing regulations, encouraging foreign ownership, reducing taxes, encouraging buy to let, etc). If it was a truly free market it would have been allowed to go down as well as up. But it goes only one way, by design. This is not how a fre market should operate.

I always say, if housing is treated as an investment (i.e. people can profit from it) then people shouldn't be protected from losses either. And if people need to be protected from losses, then nobody should be allowed to profit from it. We can't privatise the gains and socialise the losses. That's not capitalism.

Stamp duty break definitely played a role in inflating prices, but it's the last in a long list of policies that come every time there's even a small sign of stagnation, let alone a correction. This is just a giveaway to older generation to buy votes by increasing their paper wealth which they love more than anything else.

Labour would be no different. They will also want to buy the votes from the same people.

The only way this would change is when the "have nots" become a stronger voting block than the "haves", e.g. workers and renters become more politically powerful than homeowner/landlord class. Another way is general strikes, if the working people stop working and start civil disobedience en masse, then we'll get some concessions. As long as we're all fighting between ourselves over culture war stuff, we can't ever unite to fight the actual class war, despite how hostile this country has been to children and young adults in recent years.

Completely agree about the have nots.
Once that group gets big enough there will be a pull back. More and more of population are never going to see full home ownership.
I fully expect the next attempt to Prop prices up is multi generational Mortgages. 100 years that you pass down.

Running out of levers to keep it growing. Just look at Japan.

This will be the first year as a probably completely average earning household that I feel a pinch.
By that I mean I'll have to make a few changes to spending. That's going to be UK services. Less cinema trips, takeaways, restaurants. So this cost of living increase is just going to come out of recovery spending.
I expect a lot are in the same position

Raumarik · 2 Feb 2022 at 10:54

413x said:
Completely agree about the have nots.
Once that group gets big enough there will be a pull back. More and more of population are never going to see full home ownership.

Throw on top of that the fact some of us will likely never be able to retire until we are physically unable to work.

My parents worked hard, got a couple of years each in retirement before dying and only when ill health took them. Their parents had decades.

We'll work until we drop.

413x · 2 Feb 2022 at 11:13

Raumarik said:
Throw on top of that the fact some of us will likely never be able to retire until we are physically unable to work.

My parents worked hard, got a couple of years each in retirement before dying and only when ill health took them. Their parents had decades.

We'll work until we drop.

Yes. I doubt there will be a state pension when many of us drop.
At 36 I fully expect to maybe never see it.
I have no confidence in any support in my later years from government.
People think its bad now. Its only going to get worse.

Em3bbs · 2 Feb 2022 at 11:15

cheesyboy said:
Job spec creep, with more and more careers requiring a degree, was not something younger people instigated: it was foisted upon them.

Oh no! People having more access to education and companies wanting to employ educated people? What a terrible thing.

cheesyboy · 2 Feb 2022 at 11:30

Em3bbs said:
Oh no! People having more access to education and companies wanting to employ educated people? What a terrible thing.

Access to Higher education is good insofar as it offers additional opportunity.

Where having a degree is so pervasive that jobs that older generations could get without a degree now require it, that's not actually an improvement is it? Especially when it's coupled with a tax that reduces your income throughout your family-starting years.

Eurofighter · 2 Feb 2022 at 12:30

We need a centralist Labour government badly. The Conservatives have lost control of the economy, the only reason why people vote for them.

tlrBeta · 2 Feb 2022 at 14:44

413x said:
Yes. I doubt there will be a state pension when many of us drop.

It will likely be means tested. Unfortunately the people that plan (those that can before I get moaned at) effectively will loose out the most.

PlacidCasual · 2 Feb 2022 at 14:49

cheesyboy said:
Party changes have had a huge effect in the past 40 years in the UK.

Fertility rate declines under Tory government, and rises under Labour

What's the causation? Does it correlate with net migration, are migrants more likely to have kids?

potatolord · 2 Feb 2022 at 14:58

413x said:
Yes. I doubt there will be a state pension when many of us drop.
At 36 I fully expect to maybe never see it.
I have no confidence in any support in my later years from government.
People think its bad now. Its only going to get worse.

There is a definite problem for younger people that any pension they might get will grow ever more remote.

There is a bulge in the UK age pyramid that will see pension eligible people increase very quickly in the next two decades.

My guess is smoking decreases will also feed into this, with reduced early mortality.

It will therefore become increasingly unaffordable over time.

sHo0sH · 2 Feb 2022 at 15:03

PlacidCasual said:
What's the causation? Does it correlate with net migration, are migrants more likely to have kids?

The Cynic in me would point towards available benefits under each party but that is just an assumption based on the small town I grew up in.

cheesyboy · 2 Feb 2022 at 15:05

PlacidCasual said:
What's the causation? Does it correlate with net migration, are migrants more likely to have kids?

Immiigrants are more likely to have kids: latest ons figures have fertility rate at 1.5 for British born women and 1.98 for foreign born.

But fertility rate still increased for British born women under the last Labour government, before receding under the Tories. See here:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1448578707396964355

potatolord · 2 Feb 2022 at 15:08

PlacidCasual said:
What's the causation? Does it correlate with net migration, are migrants more likely to have kids?

ONS is pretty clear on the main driver for UK population increase in recent decades- immigration. Immigrants tend to be younger. Potentially they will stay and become pension eligible. That will only become clear when it is a fact.

That graph shows a few years lag between significant increases is immigration and fertility levels rising.

ONS tracks births by origin country of mother, and I believe that shows an increase in births among mothers born outside the UK.

So: probably.

PlacidCasual · 2 Feb 2022 at 16:12

@potatolord Yeah, I was aware population growth in general was net migration driven it was the fertility bit I wondered about. As @sHo0sH and other have mentioned the other one might be affordability driven by social policy but I'm not familiar enough to have a view if the changes in that area are a true driver.

Trifid · 3 Feb 2022 at 08:34

Just realised its by-election day today in Southend West. There is a diverse cross selection of democracy in action here:
Freedom Alliance Christopher Anderson
English Democrat Catherine Blaiklock
Olga Childs
Heritage Ben Downton
Conservative Anna Firth
Independent Jayda Fransen
UKIP Steve Laws
English Constitution Graham Moore
Psychedelic Movement Jason Pilley

CapitalOne · 3 Feb 2022 at 08:40

Trifid said:
Just realised its by-election day today in Southend West. There is a diverse cross selection of democracy in action here:
Freedom Alliance Christopher Anderson
English Democrat Catherine Blaiklock
Olga Childs
Heritage Ben Downton
Conservative Anna Firth
Independent Jayda Fransen
UKIP Steve Laws
English Constitution Graham Moore
Psychedelic Movement Jason Pilley

But no Lib-Dem or Labour because they agreed not to stand.

Freedom Alliance, English Democrat, Heritage, UKIP, English Constitution.....on my lord I wonder what ticket they are standing on? They should form a Magna Carta alliance to split the vote

So unless you are being sarcastic, it's not diverse at all.

Trifid · 3 Feb 2022 at 08:43

CapitalOne said:
So unless you are being sarcastic, it's not diverse at all.

CapitalOne · 3 Feb 2022 at 08:49

Trifid said:

OIC - difficult to tell sometimes

hurfdurf · 3 Feb 2022 at 14:00

Lack of ability to afford things under the Tories is likely the cause for drop in fertility rates. Be it house insecurity or food insecurity, only irresponsible people would consider having a child if you can’t look after yourself. We live in a society.

Moley · 3 Feb 2022 at 14:08

hurfdurf said:
Lack of ability to afford things under the Tories is likely the cause for drop in fertility rates. Be it house insecurity or food insecurity, only irresponsible people would consider having a child if you can’t look after yourself. We live in a society.

That and actually having to have to get out of bed and go to work instead of staying at home on benefits smoking and shagging all day.