Soldato
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Do you mean on BR?Because it was the first HD-DVD i bought when i got mine.
Amazing film.
Yes, HD as in High Def, not as in HD-DVD.
Toshiba calling it quits on HD-DVD
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Yes, HD as in High Def, not as in HD-DVD.
if you read the analysts full reports it's about disposable income, current DVD player prices, etc, etc, etc, the average net monthly incomes are very similar between the US and UK using currency exchange rates, we earn a little more but pay more taxes etc, so it even's out, this means that we both have roughly the same disposable income, and since we are largely similar in terms of standards of living, we both have reasonably similar buying habits, its entirely appropriate to use the exchange rate to compare $200 in this instance to £100 as an approximation. And again, it's worth noting that $100 HD-DVD players where out when HD-DVD looked like it had some future, and take up rate was pretty good, but still tiny compared to continued DVD player sales, granted there are some consumers confused and waiting for the outcome at that time, but since we are talking orders of magnitudes in difference, it serves it's purpose as an example that even at $100 it's not enough to sway the majority..
I agree with that, but really it's about the masses, since BR's aim is to replace DVD for it to become the 'mass adopted' standard, it needs to at least equal DVD disk sales and to do that it needs to approximately equal Household DVD player ownership if buying trends are the same.
looking at this, http://www.hiddenwires.co.uk/resourcesnews2007/news20070501-01.html that is saying only 6% of households in europe had a HDTV by the end of 2006, OK I can't find exact SD % houshold figures but it's got to be a magnitude higher..
indeed, it's only 'information' at the end of the day, but you can't completely ignore it either.
I don't think anyone is saying otherwise? the PS3 is the best selling BR player by a country mile, I have one, you have one, etc, etc, etc..
And at present, I'd say BR is the defacto standard, but you'd be crazy to discount HD downloads etc, this is a growing area that seems to be gathering momentum, and until figures are more prevalent, and BR has been adopted, it's not 100% clear cut, but I agree that it should do nicely..
Well time will tell, the problem is when there is fierce competition, companies often pander to the consumer much more then usual ($100 platyers), now there is no competition, in some aspects that will have a negative effect, however, on balnce, they are trying to push the format into mainstream and strive for the mass adopted figures, so they have to keep pushing and pushing, so lets see what happens..
I know that it 'feels' like BR take up (possibly due to the PS3 numbers etc) seems like it's mainstream and being mass adopted, but as I've found when you look at the big picture of DVD player ownership, which is the thing BR is out to replace, the facts are overwhelming in showing that it has a long way to go, as I said, give it 3 years...
in fact, look what I've dug up..
http://www.itpro.co.uk/news/107799/...ation-has-threeyear-plan-to-replace-dvds.html
That's the BDA with saying last year that it would take 3 years (the report is CES2007, and that was clearly seen as way too optimistic..
As I said in my previous post, I'm not trying to be an expert and predict anything, I've just read around the subject, and am putting analsyst reports forward..
Soldato
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I think the real problem is "Joe Public's" lack of knowledge on the whole HD front.
People I speak to, who are intelligent people, just don't understand it all. Some still don't realise you need a HD TV and a Blu Ray player to play Blu Ray Discs and get the extra quality.
This so called war between HD-DVD and Blu Ray, even though it's "over", has just created even more confusion.
The fact of the matter is it's going to take at least 5-10 years for Blu Ray to be adopted and even then there is no guarantee it will be. Who knows what will happen in 5-10 years time, we might all be just downloading HD movies direct to our TVs.
People I speak to, who are intelligent people, just don't understand it all. Some still don't realise you need a HD TV and a Blu Ray player to play Blu Ray Discs and get the extra quality.
This so called war between HD-DVD and Blu Ray, even though it's "over", has just created even more confusion.
The fact of the matter is it's going to take at least 5-10 years for Blu Ray to be adopted and even then there is no guarantee it will be. Who knows what will happen in 5-10 years time, we might all be just downloading HD movies direct to our TVs.
That is already a possibility with some cable companies here for 4 euro a movie (although I don't think they are HD but I think they are Dolby Digital 5.1)
Because I have seen them a few times and won't watch them again for maybe a year or so anyways..
average means average - there for for every machine that costs $50 less than average, one has to be sold for $50 more (and if you think about it if lets say a vast majority are at below average price mathamtically to arrive at average price you have to be astronomically higher for the other 25% which isnt going to happen)
My point about the ps2 is your mystical belief abotu things halving in price every year - it just doesnt happen
I work with analysts on a day to day basis who manage a £15 Billion fund, you are talking ****
<Quote>Again, your figures are skewed, just look in highstreet catalogue place, at DVD player prices, these start at £17, most are under £50, and even DVD/VHS combo's are £70, premium DVD players, of which there are 2 are £90-£100.. not one is over £100.. so if the range is £17 to £100 with the majority under £50, clearly the average is going to be somehwere around £50, which is oddly roughly half of $96 and then again I think it's fair and easy to prove that the majority of people buy the sub £50 players.. <\Quote>
Means nothing as we have no idea how many buy dvd players from catalogue shops and what proportion of the market these sales equate too (for all you know it could only equate to 5% of the market - I dont think anyone would go to a catalogue for a quality piece of electronics)
Your rule of thumb seems to be inventing rules as you go along - ok then if you say so, and please dont assume to guess what I know as Ive been in the IT industry about 20 years (and doing pretty nicely out of it thank you) - personally think you are making stuff up as you go along
Widely respected company report is skewed from the largest DVD area in the world - ok if you want to think that by all means
Mr L - Legal issues with the BDA - surely its a standard legal agreement that everyone signs (or at least would have already been used between BDA and Sony for the PS3, if not standalones also), and no I really dont think there was anything like that kind of delay, it was more only because discs wherent widely availlable I believe (but I could be wrong
)
My point about the ps2 is your mystical belief abotu things halving in price every year - it just doesnt happen
I work with analysts on a day to day basis who manage a £15 Billion fund, you are talking ****
<Quote>Again, your figures are skewed, just look in highstreet catalogue place, at DVD player prices, these start at £17, most are under £50, and even DVD/VHS combo's are £70, premium DVD players, of which there are 2 are £90-£100.. not one is over £100.. so if the range is £17 to £100 with the majority under £50, clearly the average is going to be somehwere around £50, which is oddly roughly half of $96 and then again I think it's fair and easy to prove that the majority of people buy the sub £50 players.. <\Quote>
Means nothing as we have no idea how many buy dvd players from catalogue shops and what proportion of the market these sales equate too (for all you know it could only equate to 5% of the market - I dont think anyone would go to a catalogue for a quality piece of electronics)
Your rule of thumb seems to be inventing rules as you go along - ok then if you say so, and please dont assume to guess what I know as Ive been in the IT industry about 20 years (and doing pretty nicely out of it thank you) - personally think you are making stuff up as you go along
Widely respected company report is skewed from the largest DVD area in the world - ok if you want to think that by all means
Mr L - Legal issues with the BDA - surely its a standard legal agreement that everyone signs (or at least would have already been used between BDA and Sony for the PS3, if not standalones also), and no I really dont think there was anything like that kind of delay, it was more only because discs wherent widely availlable I believe (but I could be wrong
)My turn again.....
Downloads are not going to phase out physical media. They are an alternative distrubution option, to be considered in the same way as Satellite,Cable or television broadcast.
They are generally broadcast or are limited by DRM so in effect they arnt "ownership of the media", nor meant to be. Sky Tv nor cable didnt kill off DVD sales in the UK for instance and movie studios or indeed electronic manufacturers are never going to kill off the aspect of retaillers the importance of the high street and physical media revenue. Id go as far to say that many people would be as happy using internet "renting" services than any slow and as yet bandwidth draining online streaming. While on the topic Studios will only aggree on releases that will be schedulled after the intial "for sale to own release date" This is an important issue, so then does Sky protest because should Sky get next diggs at release before internet downloads do? Thats a major problem your forgetting and by such the majority of people have seen the film in question. The other problem you face is with older classic titles, why pay £3 to stream something when you could likely buy it for £5 on DVD? So this kills off many older films and leaves a problem with release schedules on newer titles, oh dear....
You keep talking about the masses yet this idea of downloads or streaming is much further away from mass adoption than BDs sales chances are by a country mile.
Regards the £100 thing i think your still wrong as i could name many devices that have released in the past few years with a retail close to £200 or indeed more that have succeeded immensely.
PSP / Ipod / High Tech Mobiles / X360 / Wii / PS3 / Sky HD / HDTV / 5.1 Surround / Laptops / £200+ Graphics cards
I believe im fairly expressing my views and giving factual information to sustain them. You seem to have a hard time defining a profitable/successfull product from a "masses" product.
You have to walk before you can run. Theirs no reason to expect BD not to take off before players or indeed the PS3 reaches £100 value. HD-DVD only ammassed 1/10 of what the PS3 alone sold, its time you just realised its going to go mainstream in a big way within the next 12 months.
Frank -
Microsoft im sure will look at it closely but even if they had a BD drive out in 6 months i wonder how many people wouldnt actually prefer to put that £100 (expected) into a PS3 rather than annother addon. I believe MS will look at it more for damage limatation than actual profit on the drive itself. Maybe its feasable who knows.
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For us the importance is not that its going to take 3 years or 5 years or 10 years. Your investment is made the moment you buy the player whenever this is. The actual importance for the format is that the studios and retaillers take the situation now at hand and get on with quickly establishing release dates and not overpriced costs for titles.
Remember building the catalouge of choice to a level that consumers are happy with is good for everyone including the Studios,Retaillers,Sony and us the consumer. I couldnt care if DVD outsells BD for the next 7 years but i dont want a lacking format crippled with poor release schedules. It didnt take DVD long to get its catalouges up and running so i see no reason why with BD there will be neither once everyone has signed up.
You may be right, I have re-read the quote you put, and it would seem like an 'average', but it's still very clouded with the fact it included portables/VHS combi's and recorders which are much more expensive then standalone DVD players, not that it actually matters, if you want to stick to $96 then fine, it doesn't sway anything I've said, $100 is still much much less then BR players,
OMG, you still didn't get the context of that example, you really fail at these things, I said EMERGING technologies, i.e. in the first couple of years, and even then, the point was saying that even if (and it's obviously completely not going to happen) BR players did manage to halve there price year on year, it would still take 3 years to get to a point it is deemed to have gone main stream and the path to mass adoption is underway.. By showing me what is painfully obvious to everyone that in fact things don't halve in price per year, it just extends the time it will take BR players to get to the mass adoption price.. but hey, keep misunderstanding the context of this, it's great for you to accidentally aid the evidence I put forward while thinking you are discrediting the facts..
LOL, please, you can't even grasp what the 50% per year price drop was about, and managed to read it backwards, and still are, just because you work with analysts who manage funds (which has zero relevance to this particular debate) doesn't make you one, and isn't relevant in the slightest..
LOL, but OK, it makes no odds to the situation, lets just agree to disagree and say that dvd players range from £20 to £100 then, it really doesn't change anything..
Now you are delusional! I've researched on the web, provided links to the odd report, and never made a single 'thing' up just reported what analysts are saying, it's freely available, it's a shame someone with 20 years experience can't use google to go and read up about these things..
The only 'rule of thumb' applied was a hypothetical figure of 50% per year price drop for emerging technologies, that was intentionally ridiculously high to prove the point.. and as I keep saying, you've taken it completely backwards...
no, I merely meant that becuase it includes much higher priced items, Portables/Combi's/Recorders that it's not fair to directly use that as the figure against the current cost of BR players, since we can't get all these other types of BR devices (portables/recorders/Combi's) all you can compare is the standalone prices, but since those figures don't give us that break down it makes it more difficult, but as I said, it matters not one bit, as whether its $50 or $96 the analysis from industry experts is what matters, they are the ones in a position to know many more of the facts then we do..
So lets distill the issues..
1. I've reported (from reading around) that analysts say that BR players need to be under $200 (£100) before they will start selling in the required quantity.
Source
http://hiddenwires.co.uk/resourcesnews2007/news20070215-02.html, notably the ABI research paper on this exact subject..
2. I also reported that BR is going to take 3+ years before 'mass adoption'..
Here's some sources for you that show how 'far' BR has to go before it's mass adopted at DVD levels..
http://www.digitalartsonline.co.uk/news/index.cfm?NewsID=9568,
http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,23245040-15306,00.html
Hell, even the BDA themselves quoted 3 years (from 2007) which if you go and look was laughed at by many many industry sources, even if there 'uber' plan was remotely credible, that would be at least well into 2010,
( I can't help think that you've misunderstood mass adoption and 'gone mainstream')
I'll take the point about me suggesting £20 DVD players are the norm, and I'll gladly take your $96 average if that helps, even if it includes an unknown mix of portables/recorders/combi's..
Personally, my own 'opinion' is that it will take more like 5 years before BR replaces DVD in most homes, and that players will need to be in the region of £75 or so before monthly BR player sales exceed DVD player sales.. that's my 'gut' feeling, based on what I know, but as I said, on reading around, I'm quite happy to believe the industry reports, etc, and say 3 years and $200 break through price before players really start shifting (and then that still doesn't qualify as being mass adopted until it outsells DVD players month on month..
the problem is I just get the impression we are talking about two different subjects, maybe I'm hopeless at getting points accross, I do try and put people's theories to the test by using deliberately outlandishly high number in there favour that is meant to show that without doubt their numbers don't stack up, but it seems people take these literally and then apply them to other things and say they are wrong and made up.. which just shows how bad some people are at understanding these things..
Perhaps we can get back to a more reasonable level of debate, and I can ask you that OK, you don't agree with the $200 and 3 years, but can you reason why you disagree???
For example, at what price do you think that the 'mass' people will choose a BR player over a DVD player and why? and is there anything to back up that reasoning?
And also if we agree that BR to DVD sales are even as high as 1:10 (which they aren't, but this favours the BR figures, so lets just start at a sensible level), how is BR going to swing this to be 50:50 within 3 years?
I'd love to stop the wind up on both sides if we can turn this into a more reasoned debate with 'ideas' that are at least validated with evern rudimentary evidence on the web?
Please don't forget that I'm an owner and user of BR player(s) and have a good collection growing, although lovefilm seem to be my source for my HD fix lately, and I do have faith in it's success..
Jeesh Demon, I have never read any posts as antogonising as yours. Do you really need to LOL at every comment somebody makes and if somebody doesn't get what you are trying to say it could well be down to the way that you put it rather than the other person being inapt.!!!
Just chill it a little and you will get more reasonable responses all round imo.
Just chill it a little and you will get more reasonable responses all round imo.
Soldato
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i gave up reading this thread ages ago, in the end Blu-ray has won, thats all i care about and i'm sure Sony also
Soldato
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haha, Indeed. Way too much to catch up on, and a lot of it looks like arguing rather than debating anyways.
Caporegime
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Is it me or are these guys going round in circles? 
I think you are completely mis understanding my 'stance' on BR, I don't for one second think it will 'fail' or that it won't replace DVD in the next 3 - 5 years..
I have never said BR wont be profitable, and I can easily distinguish between a profitable product and a mass adopted one, the fact is, I'm not making any point against this, I've never said it won't go mainstream, nor be mass adopted, but you insist on replying suggesting I am...
Also, even when it went off track, the term mass adoption was the only one I've ever mentioned, and then it was in effect just reporting the ABI report, but it seems everyone else is then mis-interpreted this as 'going mainstream' etc, I can't help this, but these are completely different arguments, and still we have only discussed timescales in essence, that's not in anyway saying BR is 'failiing' on any front, just rather when it really takes off..
It seems that you can't even say this without it being majorly misconstrued as saying "BR is a failure, the PS3 won't sell because of it and Sony will close it's doors" because as ludicrous as that sounds, reading the responses it would make more sense if I had said that....
And that is the thing on this particular forum, I believe , IMHO, it's impossible to have reasoned debate.. because one or two people (I'm not accusing you of this) just don't understand that 'informed' opinion/views are much more valid then gut feeling opintion/views.. there is nothing to stop gut feelings becoming 'informed', but until you can qualify your strong 'beliefs', really they have little credibility and substance..
Working in a corporate environment, all our decisions are 'informed', there are plenty of 'beliefs' and 'gut feelings' that bear fruit (as this is often where innovation comes from), but these are always qualified before acceptance before , and that's where I am coming from, rightly or wrongly..
I know, I see what you are saying, and will take that onboard.. I have been out of order in many respects, and apologise...
I seem to treat the forums the same as corporate 'meetings' where you have to qualify every decision, and always need some 'evidence' to back up your gut feelings etc, or they become worthless, and really, hand on heart that's just being a little silly. That's not to say I think I'm an expert in any way, or that I have rock solid evidence to back up my (what could be misguided) views, just it's not the way forums work..
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all I know is...my dad wouldnt consider spending 250 quid on something just to play movies on every now and then.....
and there will be millions like him
at that price its not an impulse by and no matter how good they sellt he picture quality etc youir average man on the street will still baulk at paying that much..its almost pshycological, it needs to hit a certain price point for that little switch in people heads to switch on and say, hey thats some tech I really need at a price I'm willing to pay
I WILL pay that amount because its something that does interest me, but then I'm in my mid 30's with no kids and lots of disposable income..other peopkle have to buy kids shoes or feed their families
and there will be millions like him
at that price its not an impulse by and no matter how good they sellt he picture quality etc youir average man on the street will still baulk at paying that much..its almost pshycological, it needs to hit a certain price point for that little switch in people heads to switch on and say, hey thats some tech I really need at a price I'm willing to pay
I WILL pay that amount because its something that does interest me, but then I'm in my mid 30's with no kids and lots of disposable income..other peopkle have to buy kids shoes or feed their families
Soldato
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If people can't afford £250 for a Bluray player of any sort, It's tough and they won't get to watch Blurays 
They will just have to watch DVDs.
but you're right, people who can't afford them won't buy them, and will most likely buy them when the prices come down.
That said, HDTV's aren't cheap, And you wouldn't buy a HD movie player for a standard TV. So chances are people who want Bluray can afford it.
They will just have to watch DVDs.
but you're right, people who can't afford them won't buy them, and will most likely buy them when the prices come down.
That said, HDTV's aren't cheap, And you wouldn't buy a HD movie player for a standard TV. So chances are people who want Bluray can afford it.
Soldato
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and thats why the PS3 may become more attractive, not just a blu-ray player but a console also and various other things. Joe Blogs son may want a new games console and Dad wants this new tech blu-ray - both happy as there isn't anything else on the market that does both