Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

delta0 · 24 Jan 2022 at 10:38

mid_gen said:
This isn't the crypto forum.

US growth stocks have been overheated for months, years even, they were always going to blow off steam. It's the scale of the correction that's the question. How much of a problem is current inflation? Raising interest rates is really unpalatable with living standards being squeezed. Could get quite unpleasant here in the UK with our broken property market.

Property will be fairly robust imo. The UK market is not very debt driven unlike other markets and like before in a property driven recession it will just seize up. We are already seeing very few properties on the market.

HACO · 24 Jan 2022 at 10:39

delta0 said:
Property will be fairly robust imo. The UK market is not very debt driven unlike other markets and like before in a property driven recession it will just seize up. We are already seeing very few properties on the market.

The government will also do everything in their power to prop up the property market, as they always do.

mid_gen · 24 Jan 2022 at 10:42

delta0 said:
Property will be fairly robust imo. The UK market is not very debt driven unlike other markets and like before in a property driven recession it will just seize up. We are already seeing very few properties on the market.

The problem isn't the performance of the property market (so British to immediately jump to that conclusion though

), the problem is that because property prices are insane in this country, there's very little scope to increase interest rates without seriously hitting people's standard of living.

delta0 · 24 Jan 2022 at 10:45

HACO said:
The government will also do everything in their power to prop up the property market, as they always do.

Yes as people being homeless is not good!

mid_gen said:
The problem isn't the performance of the property market (so British to immediately jump to that conclusion though ), the problem is that because property prices are insane in this country, there's very little scope to increase interest rates without seriously hitting people's standard of living.

The market can tolerate greater interest rates especially if wage inflation picks up. However it needs to be done carefully.

mid_gen · 24 Jan 2022 at 10:51

delta0 said:
Yes as people being homeless is not good!

Not sure what that is supposed to mean, do people suddenly become homeless if property prices aren't running at 15% pa? :rolleyes:

delta0 · 24 Jan 2022 at 11:16

mid_gen said:
Not sure what that is supposed to mean, do people suddenly become homeless if property prices aren't running at 15% pa?

No if they can’t afford rent or mortgages of course

House price growth is due to shortages. With so many construction companies going under at the moment we aren’t going to be building much for the foreseeable either.

uncle_rufus · 24 Jan 2022 at 12:00

I could really do with a massive property price crash (not that it'll happen) as have a 20% equity loan; it'd be great to be able to use some savings to snipe it off during a crash (though actually it wouldn't surprise me if the terms of it have some annoying clause that prevents it!)

fez · 24 Jan 2022 at 12:36

As others have said, the last thing the government want is for interest rates to spike and the house market to crash. Ultimately the housing market going up all the time doesn't benefit anyone until they go to sell at the end.

If my house was worth £250k instead of £500k then when I want to buy the next house up and the market has inflated by 10% I would be paying less.

People don't seem to be able to do the simple maths that x% of a higher amount is more than x% of a lower amount. Great, My £250k house is now worth £275k but the £400k house I want is now £440k. I'm £15k worse off and I have to pay more stamp duty.

The people who really benefit from the housing market booming are the generation about to sell and downsize and people who rent properties or flip properties. Everyone else loses and yet we are all happy when our house increases in value 10% in a few years.

delta0 · 24 Jan 2022 at 14:51

Tech driven rout is continuing. Could see some momentum gaining. Will be interesting to see if Nasdaq crosses below 13k this week.

413x · 24 Jan 2022 at 14:53

fez said:
As others have said, the last thing the government want is for interest rates to spike and the house market to crash. Ultimately the housing market going up all the time doesn't benefit anyone until they go to sell at the end.

If my house was worth £250k instead of £500k then when I want to buy the next house up and the market has inflated by 10% I would be paying less.

People don't seem to be able to do the simple maths that x% of a higher amount is more than x% of a lower amount. Great, My £250k house is now worth £275k but the £400k house I want is now £440k. I'm £15k worse off and I have to pay more stamp duty.

The people who really benefit from the housing market booming are the generation about to sell and downsize and people who rent properties or flip properties. Everyone else loses and yet we are all happy when our house increases in value 10% in a few years.

Yep. Better if house prices went up with inflation. Unless you're in your forever home it's off no benefit really.

413x · 24 Jan 2022 at 14:54

It's an negative at the minute
Inflation, war in Ukraine. Overpriced stocks.

Only need Ukraine to errupt to make things much worse

Efour · 24 Jan 2022 at 14:56

Blimey horrible opening for us tech stuff.
Finally it's coming.

brendy · 24 Jan 2022 at 15:14

Efour said:
Blimey horrible opening for us tech stuff.
Finally it's coming.

Horrible? its fantastic, get your wallets our gentlemen, sale is about to start!

mid_gen · 24 Jan 2022 at 15:19

Shuffled some stuff around. Mitigated some of the drop by dipping in and out, but currently in again. Tomorrow will be interesting...some sharp drops, another poor opening and we could be into panic territory.

Efour · 24 Jan 2022 at 15:20

brendy said:
Horrible? its fantastic, get your wallets our gentlemen, sale is about to start!

How many dips can you buy?
Every knock is buy the dip, surely it's a never ending loss

like that.

Kreeeee · 24 Jan 2022 at 15:33

brendy · 24 Jan 2022 at 15:41

Efour said:
How many dips can you buy?
Every knock is buy the dip, surely it's a never ending loss like that.

10 percent drops and being close to pay day, "every little helps" says one popular shopping supermarket.

arknor · 24 Jan 2022 at 16:46

most the dips look massive on a 1year chart then you switch to view the whole pandemic and see 2019 prices...

yep that dips still going to be happening for a long time I reckon

most tech stocks without covid likely would only be just above half the current values

it's not just tech stocks though the whole market almost went insane, could be the year where you make the most money by not investing

HACO · 24 Jan 2022 at 17:03

arknor said:
most the dips look massive on a 1year chart then you switch to view the whole pandemic and see 2019 prices...

yep that dips still going to be happening for a long time I reckon

most tech stocks without covid likely would only be just above half the current values

it's not just tech stocks though the whole market almost went insane, could be the year where you make the most money by not investing

HODL what you got and keep buying every month, so you bring your average unit cost down little by little. When it inevitably recovers (as it always does), you'll be up.

arknor · 24 Jan 2022 at 17:18

HACO said:
HODL what you got and keep buying every month, so you bring your average unit cost down little by little. When it inevitably recovers (as it always does), you'll be up.

or wait until it starts moving sideways.

some stocks are looking oversold right now but nothing I'm that interested in NIO/BABA/PLTR/RKT

Netflix could be entering over sold territory soon even.

INTC pretty much a buy right now even almost under 50 with a PE of 9.8, I guess earnings is soon though so could be risky (jan 26)